Based on career results, we couldn’t have a more mismatched title game. I have five league championships. Jeff has five total playoff victories. I’ve been to the title game eight times. Jeff has been there once. I have 179 career victories. Jeff has 83 career wins. I have five scoring crowns and four top seeds. Jeff has only one top seed to speak of. Of course, none of that really matters, does it?
This season, Jeff is the big dog, while I’m the underdog. Greenblatt was the preseason favorite, who rocked out in September. He went 4-0, scored over 1,490 in all four, including a pair of 1,700-pt games. However, injuries to Ekeler and Kittle and the worthlessness of his top pick, Michael Thomas, put a dent in the armor and over the next six weeks, Jeff was, dare I say, average. He lost four of six, breaking 1,500 just once, falling from the elite conversation. Yet, fantasy is about getting hot at the right time and despite not being able to use his top two picks in the draft (Thomas, Kittle), Jeff stunned the world by taking down both the top seed (Calderon) and the top scorer (Bob). A loss to one-win Masterson in week 13 cost him a higher seed, so he settled into the 5-spot. Yet, in the quarterfinals he continued his dominance over Bob and then thundered over Burrier in the semifinals. Heading into the finals, he’s scored over 1,500 in four of his last five games and looks prime to earn that first football mug.
As for me, my road to the finals was the bumpiest I’ve ever seen. As the defending champ, I represented out of the gate, taking down Eric with a 1,655 point effort. However, I would get rocked by the best of the best the following three weeks, losing to Bob, Calderon and Jeff. Fortunately, my easy stretch was on deck and I managed to win three straight against Colby, Matt and Griff. I even managed to score points, going over 1,600 in back-to-back games.
Yet, in weeks eight and nine, I scored 936 and 753. My season should have been on a path to failure, but somehow that 753-point effort against Don turned out to be a win somehow. I was 5-5. I beat winless Masterson the following week and then scored 1,713 in a defeat to Eric. I lost to Bob in the season’s final week to fall to 6-7, but snuck into the seven spot, thanks to a total points tiebreaker.
Of course, because the fantasy gods shined brightly onto me, I somehow scored over 1,700 in my quarterfinals win over Eric and my stunning upset in the semifinals over Calderon. In fact, heading into the finals, I’ve scored over 1,700 in three of my last four contests. Prior to week 12, I had scored over 1,700 just once this year (week 6).
Anyhow, we become the fourth pair to reach the title game without either of us finishing among the top four. The others were also 7 vs 5s…
2007 – #5 Matt beat #7 Calderon, 1,444-811
2008 – #7 Don beat #5 Robio, 1,216-1,041
2018 – #7 Matt beat #5 Calderon, 1,631-1,578
2020 SEEDING
Jeff: #5
Robio: #7
2020 RECORD
Jeff: 10-5
Robio: 8-7
2020 POINTS
Jeff: 1,508 PPG
Robio: 1,438 PPG
2020 BREAKDOWN
Jeff: 110-55-0 (Leads me 8-7)
Robio: 101-64-0
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD
JEFF – It took Jeff nine years to earn his first playoff win. Of course, it didn’t help that he only made it the postseason twice in eight years as a solo artist. After a third quarterfinals defeat in 2015, Jeff had his best season ever, winning 11, taking the top seed, earning his first postseason win and reaching the finals, before falling to Calderon in the championship. That set him on a winning path in the postseason. Overall, he’s 5-5 in the playoffs, but is a solid 5-2 since the 2016 season, reaching his second title game in five seasons.
ROBIO – While getting to the playoffs has often been a chore for me, especially lately (eight seasons without a postseason trip), when there…there has been no one better than me. I’m a stunning 27-8 in the playoffs, going 13-1 in the quarterfinals and 9-4 in the semifinals. I’m reaching the title game for the second straight year. It’s the second time I’ve done that. In total, this is my record ninth trip to the title game. I’ve won five championships, including last season’s.
TITLE GAME HISTORY BY SEED
5-SEED
The five has improved to 24-20 overall, which is the fourth best record among the seeds. This will be their sixth trip to the finals, although the finals hasn’t always been a happy home. The first 5-seed to reach the finals was Griff back in 2003. He lost to Burrier. In total, four of the five 5-seeds to reach the finals have lost. The only one to walk away with a win was Neatock back in 2008.
7-SEED
The seven-seed is the place to be. With another trip to the finals, the seven is 23-18 overall, which is the third best mark all the seeds. They’re now 7-5 in the semifinals, which is fourth best. Peak 7-seed was between 2005-2008. A 7-seed reached the finals four straight years. While Colby (2005) and Calderon (2005) fell as sevens, Don won both his championships (2006, 2008) as the 7-seed. Since 2009 though, the 7-seed has reached the finals just two times before this season. However, both times they won it all; Bob in 2011 and Matt in 2017. Overall, the 7-seed is 4-2 in the finals.
JEFF vs ROBIO | THIS SEASON
Greenblatt and I faced off back in week four and it seemed like two teams going in different directions. He crushed me that week, 1,725-1,223, improving to 4-0, while I fell to 1-3 on the season. Oddly enough, both teams strengths were non-existent that week.
Jeff was without Derrick Henry, so he got just 162 total points from Ekeler and Montgomery, who was still the same old Montgomery at that time. Instead, he rode Allen (362) and got 1,002 points from his hands, although two of those hands won’t be playing this weekend. Kittle scored 442 points, while Cooper delivered 348. As for me, Lamar and Andrews were fine, combining for 608 points, but I didn’t have Conner (still don’t) and my backs only produced 206 points, which was still more than my receivers. Hopkins only gave me 82, while Calvin Ridley was somehow shutout.
JEFF vs ROBIO | CAREER
Overall, Jeff leads our series, 9-7. He’s actually won two straight, beating me this year and last. In fact, he’s beaten me five out of our last six meetings.
JEFF vs ROBIO | POSTSEASON
We’ve faced off twice in the playoffs. Back in 2013, I was a 1-seed, Jeff was an 8-seed and the game wasn’t even close, as I beat him 1,409-871. However, in 2016, Jeff was the 1-seed, I was the 6-seed and the meeting place was the semifinals. I had history, but Jeff had the better team, beating me easily, 1,816-1,496.
QUARTERBACK – Advantage: None
JEFF | Josh Allen
Based on matchup, Jeff should start Herbert, who is facing the 21st rated pass defense. But sometimes those numbers don’t tell the entire story. Allen is facing a top-five Patriots DST, but that same defense has just been bad lately and the Pats have nothing to play for. Allen has been the biggest surprise this season, turning himself into an elite quarterback. Since week nine, he’s produced four 400-point efforts and should being aiming for a fifth. A win this week will help secure the 2-seed in the AFC.
ROBIO | Lamar Jackson
A big reason for my sudden surge has been because of Lamar, who has returned to his Lamar ways. He had scored 1,336 points over the last three weeks, all 400-point efforts. His legs have been a big reason, as he’s 253 yards rushing (4 rushing scores) during that time. The only downside is the fact he’s facing a pretty solid Giants defense. A bad game and I’ll have no shot to take down Jeff. I’ve beaten Eric and Calderon the last two weeks because my QB has outscored their QB by 610 total points.
RUNNING BACK #1 – Large Advantage: Jeff
JEFF | Derrick Henry
The advantage that Jeff has at running back is almost staggering. The Titans back is headed towards a 2,000-yard rushing season, averaging 320 fantasy points per game. He’s averaging 402 over his last four. This week, the Titans are in a big game, facing the Packers defense that is bottom five in defending the run. I can see 160 yards and a pair of scores in this one. My only hope is that the Packers jump out to a huge lead, forcing the Titans into a passing game. In that case, Henry goes to the sideline more often, as he is not part of their passing plan.
ROBIO | Kenyan Drake
I should have taken Aaron Jones in round two. Instead, I took Drake. I regretted then. I regretted it all season. I’m regretting to this day. On the season, Drake averages about 192, which seems high, considering he’s scored over 200 fantasy points just three times all year. He’s also facing a 49ers D. They’re a walking IR unit, but are still 7th against the run. My only hope is that Edwards, who is questionable, sits out, allowing Drake to spend more time on the field.
RUNNING BACK #2 – Advantage: Jeff
JEFF | David Montgomery
I’m not going to lie. Two months ago if you told me I was facing a team starting Montgomery in the title game, I would have started to mass produce my mug. Those days are over, as Montgomery is playing like the best back in football. Over his last four, he’s scored 346, 342, 370 and 444. That’s 1,502 points in four games. In his previous 10 games, he scored a total of 1,478. He reminds me of Ron Dayne in 2006. The Giants back was barely average all season, but suddenly got smoking hot at the end. Don inserted him into his lineup and won the championship that year. To make matters better for Jeff, Montgomery is facing the 30th rated run defense of the Jaguars, who are clearly not going to give-up that top overall pick in next year’s draft.
ROBIO | McKissic-Gibson-Conner-Pollard
I have no clue who I’m going to start. If Ezekiel Elliot is out again, I will go with Pollard in Dallas. If Gibson returns and Pollard is not starting, I’d go with him. If Gibson is still out, then my money is on McKissic, who is coming off a 274-point game. Worst case, I go with Conner, who is coming off another injury, rejoining a struggling Steelers offense, sharing carries with Snell. This decision won’t be made until Sunday afternoon. Of course, does it really matter?
WIDE RECEIVER #1 – Advantage: None
JEFF | DJ Metcalf
With his fifth pick, Jeff found himself a stud All-Robio wide receiver. The kind that turns good teams into championship teams. He’s still currently ranked third among all wideouts, with 98 receptions, 1,186 yards and 14 scores. Beast. Although lately, a more-tamed beast. Over his last three, Metcalf has 16 catches, 184 yards and one score. That’s…okay. This week, he’s back home facing the Rams. The last time he faced Ramsey, he caught just two balls for 28 yards. So, will he be motivated and dominate or do the Rams have him figured out?
ROBIO | Calvin Ridley
With Julio sidelined, Ridley has established himself as an elite pair of hands. He’s had three straight 100-yard games, catching 23 of his 36 targets for 405 yards and two scores. Gold, Jerry. Gold. Unfortunately, he’s facing the number two rated pass defense this week in Kansas City. That’s bad. The good news is, the Falcons will probably trail for this entire game, which means comeback mode. Lots of points can be scored in comeback mode.
WIDE RECEIVER #2 – Advantage: Robio
JEFF | T.Y. Hilton
Hilton has sorta come out of nowhere to be relevant again. Last week, Jeff inserted him into his lineup and he was fine with 4-71-0. Over his last four, he has 21 catches for 348 and four scores. He’s become a solid low-end WR1, although with the Steelers on the schedule, those type of numbers could be tough to come by this week.
ROBIO | DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins is now up to fifth among all wideouts, thanks to a solid two weeks where he has caught 18 of his 22 targets for 305 yards and one score. Gaining 100 yards against the 49ers this week will be tough, but man, he’s due for some scores. He has just six on the season, which is Julio Jones territory. If there was time for a two score game, this was it.
TIGHT END – Advantage: Robio
JEFF | Austin Hooper
If Jeff had George Kittle in his lineup, I would have forfeited this game on Monday. However, since Kittle got hurt, Jeff has had to play roto-tight end. This week, Hooper gets his chance. The Browns tight end is coming off a 142-point game (where he scored), but overall hasn’t been anything special. The last time he had a 100 fantasy point game was week six. Yet, Jeff is playing the matchup game he has played well lately. Hooper faces the Jets and no one gives up more fantasy points to tight ends than the Jets defense.
ROBIO | Mark Andrews
It’s taken way too long, but Andrews is finally playing like the tight end I expected him to be when I drafted him. In his last three games played, he has 15 catches for 240 yards and two scores. He’s averaged 200 fantasy points per game in those three. The Giants pass defense is solid, but tight ends have had success. I’d like Andrew to continue that success.
PLACE KICKER – Advantage: None
JEFF | Rodrigo Blankenship
The Colts kicker is now the third best in the league. He’s up to 30 field goals made and 38 extra points. He’s just one of two kickers with 30+ field goals and 30+ extra points. His last miss was week 11 and that was a game where he made four.
ROBIO | Carlos Santos
Santos has been off the radar this year, as Chicago has struggled to move the ball. However, he made four of four last week and hasn’t missed since week four. I’m keeping him in the starting lineup because the Bears offense has been functioning much better later and they face the Jaguars, who are the 6th worst against kickers in fantasy.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS – Advantage: Jeff
JEFF | Ravens DST
Up until last week, the Ravens DST had struggled, going five straight weeks without sniffing 100. Luckily nothing cures a team’s defensive woes like the Jaguars. The Ravens held Jacksonville to just three points and scored 207 points for Jeff. Good thing the Giants are up next. They were just shutdown by the Browns, which means the Ravens should be able to feast on another weak foe.
ROBIO | Bears DST
In desperate times, there needs to be desperate measures. The Bears defense is not good. In fact, they have a -21, -15 and a 47-point game just this month. Yet, I can’t start the 49ers against the Cardinals, so I’m going to roll with the average defense facing a bad offense (Jacksonville). I’m not expecting it to work, but it’s something.
PAST CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTIONS
Overall, I’m 15-6 in predicting the final’s results. I started off hot, picking the first five and eight of the first nine. However, I’m 7-5 over the last dozen seasons, spilting the last four.
2019 – Robio’s Prediction: Robio over Calderon | Winner: Robio
2018 – Robio’s Prediction: Calderon over Matt | Winner: Matt
2017 – Robio’s Prediction: Matt over Bob | Winner: Matt
2016 – Robio’s Prediction: Jeff over Calderon | Winner: Calderon
2015 – Robio’s Prediction: Griff over Colby | Winner: Griff
2014 – Robio’s Prediction: Bob over Matt | Winner: Bob
2013 – Robio’s Prediction: Calderon over Griff | Winner: Calderon
2012 – Robio’s Prediction: Eric over Robio | Winner: Robio
2011 – Robio’s Prediction: Bob over Burrier | Winner: Bob
2010 – Robio’s Prediction: Robio over Bob | Winner: Bob
2009 – Robio’s Prediction: Matt over Griff | Winner: Matt
2008 – Robio’s Prediction: Robio over Don | Winner: Don
2007 – Robio’s Prediction: Matt over Calderon | Winner: Matt
2006 – Robio’s Prediction: Don over Robio | Winner: Don
2005 – Robio’s Prediction: Griff over Colby | Winner: Griff
2004 – Robio’s Prediction: Griff over Bob | Winner: Bob
2003 – Robio’s Prediction: Burrier over Griff | Winner: Burrier
2002 – Robio’s Prediction: Robio over Molly | Robio
2001 – Robio’s Prediction: Jason over David | Jason
2000 – Robio’s Prediction: Robio over Griff | Robio
1999 – Robio’s Prediction: Robio over Griff | Robio
SO, WHO IS GOING TO WIN THIS THING?
CBS has understandably labeled Jeff as a 155-point favorite. Listen, it’s fantasy, anything can happen. I can win this game. I just don’t see it happening. Lamar is my X-factor, but Jeff’s Allen takes care of that. His top receiver is as good as mine and his running backs are heads and shoulders better than what I can bring to the table. Not only do I see Greenblatt winning his first title, I don’t see this contest being that close.
ROBIO OVER CALDERON, 1,842 – 1,384
