We couldn’t have two different beasts in our two semifinals matchups. On one side of the bracket, we have Calderon and Robio. Combined we have 42 career playoff wins, including 13 in the semifinals and seven overall titles. On the other side of the bracket, we have Jeff and Burrier, who don’t really fit into the picture. Combined they have just 17 postseason victories in 30 combined years in the league. They’ve been to the semifinals a total of fives times and each has won once in this spot. Burrier is the only one of the two to ever walk away with a title and that was back in 2003.
As for who you should cheer for? Well, Calderon has two titles to his name and is due for a third, having lost the last two finals. He gets his revenge game this weekend. If he wins, he can maybe get a 2016 title game rematch with Jeff, a game Rich won. In this contest, we get the league’s #1 team facing off against the preseason #1. If Burrier advances, we’ll get an instant classic of Rich vs Rich in the finals.
Speaking of Burrier, he’s trying to go from breaking the record for the longest losing streak in league history to league champion…all in one season. He can have that classic Rich vs Rich story with a win or he can face me. It should have been Rich and I in 2003, but Calderon stole that from the world.
Speaking of me, I could win this. History has told us that teams that win back-to-back titles usually have one great team and one lucky team. Last year was my great team. However, whether I face Burrier or Jeff, I’m facing a team I have a losing record against for my career.
Yep, despite the man struggles of Jeff and Burrier in this league, Jeff is 9-7 against me and Burrier is 12-10. For Greenblatt, a win by him makes my preseason predictions look good and honestly, that’s important. Anyhow…
#1 The Dick-Taters vs #7 The Czar
2017 RECORD
RICH C: 11-3
ROBIO: 7-7
2017 SCORING
RICH C: 1,500 points per game
ROBIO: 1,415 points per game
BREAKDOWN: Calderon leads 8-6, although I would have won three of the last five.
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD
RICH C: 16-11 overall, 9-5 in quarters, 5-3 in semis, 2-3 in finals
ROBIO: 26-8 overall, 13-1 in quarters, 8-4 in semis, 5-3 in finals
1-SEED IN SEMIFINALS
The one seed is now 32-17 overall. The 17 trips to the semifinals are a league high among seeds. They are 10-7 in the semifinals. The 10 wins are the most, although the .588 winning percentage is only the fourth best behind the two, three and four-seed. The 1-seed has won three of their last four in the semifinals. The 1-seed has gone on to win four of those trips to the finals, having lost their last three, including last year with Calderon.
7-SEED IN SEMIFINALS
The seven seed is a decent 21-18 overall in the playoffs, having won six of 11 in the semifinals. However, they are just 1-3 against the one-seed. The only time a 7-seed has beaten a 1-seed was two years ago, when Neatock stunned 1-seed Bob in the semifinals. This is the lowest seed I’ve ever been in the playoffs and the first time I’ve been a 7-seed.
RICH C & ROBIO | THIS SEASON
Calderon and I faced off way back in week three, back when he was dominating the league and I was coming to the realization that Lamar Jackson wasn’t who we thought he was. In that game, Rich pulled off a third-straight weekly high score (his last), beating me 1,760 to 1,583. We both got solid performances at a RB spot. Chubb handed Rich 340, while Conner gave me 358. Both my receivers scored over 200, as did my defense. Rich’s only other skill player to top 200 was Aaron Jones (232). Yet, the difference in the game was at quarterback. Calderon had Wilson, who dominated Dallas with five touchdowns (including three 1-yard passing TDs). He finished with 534, while Lamar struggled against the Chiefs. He passed for just 97 yards and one score, producing 220. The +314 was the difference in Rich’s 177-point victory.
RICH C & ROBIO | THE HISTORY
Calderon and I have faced off 22 times now and I’ve managed to win 12 of those contests. In our first five, Rich actually took three of them, but then I took seven of eight between the end of 2006 through 2012. However, since 2013, Rich has taken a little control, winning five of the last nine.
RICH C & ROBIO | THE PLAYOFF HISTORY
Calderon and I have 61 postseason games between us, but have only faced off two times in the playoffs. However, the two times were significant. Back in 2003, I was the top seed and scoring champ. I erased a 0-4 start to finish 9-1, including a dominating win over Calderon. He barely made it into the playoffs, needing a ton of shit to go right. Well, that shit went right and thanks to a stunning 1,953-1,533 victory, Rich became the first 8-seed to defeat a 1-seed in the playoffs. Fast forward to last year and I finally got my revenge in the title game. Calderon was a one-loss, 1-seed, making a return trip to the finals. Yet, I was a dominating two-seed, having crushed the regular season scoring crown. It wasn’t even close, as I earned by 5th career title, 1,900-1,234.
SEMIFINALS PREDICTIONS
Despite the fact Rich has four more wins than me this year, CBS has decided we are a pretty even matchup. This actually makes some sense. Since Rich dominated the league with three weekly high scores to open the season, he’s produced just four games over 1,500, which is still the standard bearer for success. In that same time, I’ve done it four times. The difference between the two teams is, Rich’s floor has been a lot higher than mine. He has never dipped below 1,000, while I’ve done it twice, actually winning a game where I scored 753 points.
Thus, health and matchups matter. At quarterback, I might actually finally have the advantage. Lamar has gone over 400 in two straight and Wilson has shown he struggles on the road against good defenses. Washington’s pass defense is ranked 7th best. Meanwhile, Jackson faces the Jaguars, who are 30th. My only concern is that the Ravens will dominate so quickly, they’ll actually take their foot off the gas and run Lamar a lot less. That would not be good.
At wideout, I should have the advantage. Both Ridley and Hopkins have been known to flop and they’re due, but with Julio Jones still hurt or hurting, I like Ridley as Ryan’s top option. As for Hopkins, it’s been five weeks since he’s sniffed 300. He’s due, right? Meanwhile, McLaurin has struggled (four catches in his last two games), although he faces a bad Seahawks pass D, while Thielen always seems to bounce back after bad games (78 last week).
For Rich though, his advantage is clearly at running back. With sub-20 run defenses up this week, I expect both Chubb and Jones to top 250 and the former to approach 350. As for me, Drake has not scored 200+ in back-to-back games this year and he’s coming off 240 and with Conner banged up and just not looking good, I might be stuck starting J.D. McKissic against the Hawks, which I don’t want to do.
WORTHLESS PREDICTION: Calderon over Robio, 1,498-1,346.
Neither team will dominate, but in the end it’s Rich and his backs. I got to keep up my quarterfinals streak. I should be happy with that.
#5 Non-Zero Number of People vs #6 THUNDERPANTS
2017 RECORD
Jeff: 9-5
Rich B: 8-6
2017 SCORING
Jeff: 1,492 points per game
Rich B: 1,475 points per game
BREAKDOWN: Despite the fact they are nearly even in points scored, Jeff leads Burrier, 10-4 in breakdown, but they’re 4-4 in their last 8 games.
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD
Jeff: 4-5 overall, 3-3 in quarters, 1-1 in semis, 0-1 in finals
Rich B: 7-11 overall, 4-9 in quarters, 2-1 in semis, 1-1 in finals
5-SEED IN SEMIFINALS
The five seed is 23-20 overall in the postseason, winning 16 in the quarterfinals. However, of their 15 previous times in the semifinals, they only managed to win a third of those games (going 5-10). The five seed has pulled out wins in this round just twice since 2009. This is Jeff’s second rodeo as a five-seed. He reached the semifinals as one in 2017, but failed to reach the finals when he fell to eventual champ, Matt.
6-SEED IN SEMIFINALS
Despite the fact the six seed is a not-so-tragic 10-11 in the quarterfinals, they’re just 12-20 overall, because they can’t win much beyond the first round. Overall, the 6-seed is just 2-8 in the semifinals. The only Sixers to win in the semifinals was Colby in 2015 and David Hightower back in 2001. Of those two, neither won a title, as the six-seed and eight seed are the only seeds to never win a mug.
JEFF & RICH B | THIS SEASON
Back in week three, Jeff managed to improve to 3-0, sinking Burrier to 0-3 (and to a record 10th straight defeat), with a 1,543-1,421 victory. Jeff was led by his backs, Henry and Ekeler, who both topped 300 and combined for 726. Another 200 from his kicker helped make up for him starting the Ravens against the Chiefs, scoring -23. For Rich, he wasted a 514-point effort from Kamara and 382 from Aaron Rodgers. Four players failed to top 80 points and he left Henderson’s 300 on the bench. Sub him in for Carson (152) and Burrier escapes with a 26-point win.
JEFF & RICH B | THE HISTORY
Burrier has a lot of thorns in his shoes, as the only teams he has a winning record against are me and Griff. Yet, Jeff is a surprising thorn, having dominate Rich, winning 12 of 18 matchups. Through 2003 and 2014, these two faced off 10 times and they split those ten. Then Jeff took over. Starting in 2016, Jeff has beaten Burrier eight straight times. All the games have been pretty average at best. Of those eight, only this year’s game did either of them break 1,500 points in the game.
JEFF & RICH B | | THE PLAYOFF HISTORY
Not surprisingly, these two don’t have a long playoff history. In fact, they have faced off just once in a classic quarterfinals. Jeff was the last person to win a playoff game, despite not topping 1,000, when as a 1-seed in 2016, he beat 8-seed Burrier, 905-840. Jeff eventually reached the finals, before falling to the other league Rich.
SEMIFINALS PREDICTIONS
There is nothing I hate worse than decision making in the postseason, but that’s what Jeff is doing. After dominating the quarterfinals, he’s playing the matchups and out goes Herbert, Montgomery, Cooper and Gesicki and in comes Allen, Ekeler, Hilton and Smith. That’s some damn balls to swap out four starters in the semifinals. Are they good decisions? Seems like it. Josh Allen is no slouch, having been a top-five quarterback all season long, although his matchup is a tad tougher than Herb’s. Down goes Montgomery, who has three straight 300-point games and in comes Ekeler, who will face a bad Raiders run defense. Ekeler himself nearly topped 300 last week. Cooper has been good lately, but Hilton has quietly put together a solid three-week run, scoring 222, 280 and 292 points. That’s 794 points. He had just 654 points before that.
Meanwhile, Rich isn’t messing with success. Players like Watson, Swift and Kirk will remain on the pine. Aaron Rodgers is key this week. Rich doesn’t need Rodgers to compete with Allen, he needs to win the quarterback spot this week. Kamara should be able to dominate at home against the Chiefs. I expect him to be targeted over 10 times in a game the Saints will need to score a ton of points. Rich is going to need all he can get, as Carson will face a tough Washington run D.
I desperately want to pick the upset here, especially since I like both Robert Woods and Darren Waller to put together solid games against so-so opponents. Yet, I can’t. Allen is going to score over 350 for Jeff and Henry should be able to roll right through the Lions defense.
WORTHLESS PREDICTION: Matt over Jeff, 1,650-1444
I picked a Calderon/Jeff final and I’m sticking to it. It will be my preseason #1 vs the my end of season #1.