Now this is a Final Four.
No Cinderella. No pesky underdog. No unworthy 7-seed. Instead, we have the top four teams in the standings. It’s the first time ever all four top seeds advanced to the semifinals. We are a combined 42-18 this season. The .700 winning percentage is the second best behind the 2019 Semifinals, which featured 12-1 Calderon, 11-2 Robio, 8-5 Masterson and 7-6 Matt.
If points are your thing, we have three of the top four scoring teams (and the 6th best). At this moment, I’m now the scoring leader, as I’ve passed Bob by just 24 points, but don’t sweat it, Castrone. The scoring crown only takes into account the regular season.
I’ll breakdown the key matchups below, but what stands out are the running backs. In this final four, we will get to see the backs who are currently 2nd (McCaffrey), 3rd (Gibbs), 4th (Robinson), 6th (Achane), 7th (K. Williams), 8th (J. Williams) and 9th (Jacobs) in fantasy points. Add in Henderson, who has averaged 312 points per game over his last five, I could argue this is the most impressive group of backs to assemble in the semifinals in this league’s history.
Of course, the hands shouldn’t be forgotten, as we get the #1 (JSN), #2 (Nacua), #3 (St. Brown) and #6 (Nico) wide receivers all participating, with #7 (Adams) out injured.
With so much success, it’s no wonder the matchups are tight. No dogs allowed this week.
#1 Class of 2029 (Robio) vs #4 Cankles McTaco Tits (Don)
RECORD
Robio: 12-3
Don: 9-6
POINTS
Robio: 1,488
Don: 1,463
BREAKDOWN
Robio: 11451 (10-5 vs Don)
Don: 101-63-1
HISTORY
Don and I have battled it out 33 times since 2001. That’s the third most games between two foes behind only Griff-Robio (37 games) and Griff-Eric (34 games). The series began as expected, with me winning three of the first four games between 2001-2004. The only game Don won, I scored 1,772 points, but he scored more.
Yet, starting in 2005, Don seemed to solve a fantasy puzzle few had. Between 2005-2009, he would beat me seven straight times, which at the time was a record. Best yet for him, two of those victories came in the 2006 and 2008 title games. In both cases, Don was the 7-seed, but that 2006 squad was actually the favorite that week. In 2008, I was the heavy favorite, but a horrible lineup decision cost me that contest.
In 2010, I finally put an end to the Don misery. I first defeated him in the regular season and then ended his season in the semifinals with an easy 1,705-1,181 victory. Those two wins would be the beginning of a new era of domination over the elder Vozzola. Between 2010-2016, I would take seven of ten, but those ten games were just the appetizer. Starting with a win in the 2016 quarterfinals, I would go on to win 12 straight games over Don… a streak that continues to this day. That’s 12 in a row and 19 of the last 22 meetings.
Overall, I lead the series 22-11, while we’re 2-2 in the playoffs, having faced off just once in the semifinals.
THIS SEASON
Like I said, my winning streak against Don improved to 12 straight in week six, but it felt like it would end going into Monday night. I trailed Don 1,631 – 1,160 points. Yet, Bijan Robinson, the man Don traded to me the season before, had himself a ball game. He had 238 yards and a score, handing me 536 points. I beat Don by just 65 points, 1,696 – 1,631. The win put me at 4-2 and dropped Don to 3-3. Combined, we would only taste defeat four more times the rest of the season.
THE BATTLES WITHIN
QUARTERBACKS – Drake Mye (Robio) vs Bo Nix (Do)
Two months ago I would have given myself the big edge at quarterback. Drake Maye was playing lights out, breaking 300 in five of his first eight games. Yet, lately, while he’s winning games for the Patriots, they have leaned more on their running game and Maye’s stats have taken a hit. Since week eight, he’s averaged only 258 points per game. This week he’s on the road at Baltimore. They have not been beast this year against the pass (15th overall), but a lot of their awfulness came early in the season. In fact, since week six, only one quarterback has tossed two touchdowns and none have thrown for 300 yards.
Bo Nix has been hot or cold. He had a brilliant October, but a forgettable November, including a combined 290 points in two games facing the awful Raiders. Yet, he bounced back last week and scored 460 points against a really good Packers D. This week he faces the Jaguars at home, who have looked good lately, but let’s not kid ourselves. They’ve faced the Cardinals, Titans, Colts (when Jones got hurt) and the Jets this week. Good quarterbacks have had success against them and facing a Florida team in the cold in Denver, Nix should get hot enough.
QB POINTS
Robio – 271 points
Don – 295 points
RUNNING BACKS – Bijan Robinson & TreVeyon Henderson (Robio) vs Jahmyr Gibbs & Josh Jacobs (Don)
With the way Henderson has been playing lately, this is one fearsome foursome. Robinson is coming off a 380-point game and has topped 380 or more in three of his last five games. Henderson, when given the ball, has dominated, scoring 360 or more in three of his last five games. Josh Jacobs is a little banged up, but he’s still rolled for 548 in his last two and while Gibbs is coming off a stinker, that actually scares me. Since week six, when he’s failed to score at least 200, the following game he has averaged 500 points and that doesn’t even include his 708-point game a month ago.
Matchups could be the deciding factor in most cases, but not this week. For me, Robinson faces the Cardinals in Arizona (27th against the run in fantasy), while Henderson is in Baltimore (18th against the run). Don’s backs face a slightly tougher slate, but no one is going to confuse the Steelers (14th vs the run) and Bears (12th vs the run) as elite run defenses.
To me, Don has the advantage. Gibbs is at a home and he’s going to have one of those classic bounce back games and hit 400+, while I expect the Patriots to lean on Stevenson more against a veteran Ravens defense. Henderson will be fine, but he won’t get the touches to be great.
RB POINTS
Robio – 536 points | Robinson: 314 points, Henderson: 222 points
Don – 644 points | Gibbs: 404 points, Jacobs: 240 points
WIDE RECEIVERS – Puka Nacua & Nico Collins (Robio) vs Jayden Reed & Darius Slayton (Don)
Now here is where we have a big divide between the two teams. With Davante Adams to the bench with a hamstring injury (I feel ya. I had to bench him in my other league), Don is down to Jayden Reed and Darius Slayton. By far, these two are the worst duo remaining in the postseason. Slayton did receive 10 targets last week, which lead the Giants, but his best performance on the season is 178 and he’s facing a Vikings defense that is top-five against wideouts.
Jayden Reed, on the other hand, has some potential to make some noise. He’s been back from injury for two games and has slowly gotten involved, catching nine of 12 targets (he’s run the ball twice as well). This week, the Packers are home facing their hated rivals, the Chicago Bears, who are only 27th vs wide receivers in fantasy. With Christian Watson out, someone needs to fill those shoes. Sure it could be Doubs or Golden, but Reed when healthy is a damn good wideout.
For me, Nico Collins has been much better lately, breaking 240 in three of his last four games. He’s facing a Raiders defense (22nd against receivers) at home. Of course, as long as he’s targeted. While he should be receiving 8-10 targets per game, from time to time he can be forgotten. A month ago he was targeted just three times (caught all three for 55 yards). Last week was targeted only four times, but he caught three for 85 yards and two scores.
Yet, the real difference maker will need to be Nacua. When he’s not whining about the refs, he’s catching a lot of balls, but this week he’s playing Thursday night in Seattle against the number one team at stopping wide receivers. The last time he faced the Seahawks, he finished with seven catches for 75 yards and a fumble. On the season only two receivers have topped 100 against the Hawks and the last person to do it was Egbuka back in week five.
WR POINTS
Robio – 457 points | Nacua: 235 points, Collins: 222 points
Don – 266 points | Reed: 142 points, Slayton: 124 points
TIGHT ENDS – Colby Parkinson (Robio) vs Dallas Goedert (Don)
I’ve started Tyler Warren all year, but I was not impressed with Philip Rivers’s ability to feed him the ball last week (6 targets, 3 catches for 19 yards). But it’s not just about Rivers. In fact, Warren has only eight catches in his last three games. Thus, a change was made. I added Gadsden off the wire Tuesday, but change my mind and decided to go with Colby Parkinson. Now it’s probably nuts to have two hands facing the Seahawks on a short week, but Seattle hasn’t been great against tight ends. With Adams out, Stafford needs someone to toss it to, so why not Parkinson, who has eight catches for 107 yards and three scores in his last two games.
In Philly, it’s clear that Dallas Goedert is Hurts’s favorite target. Yes, Brown and Smith receive more targets, but they catch less than 70% of the balls that come their way. When Hurts throws to Dallas, he catches it (73 targets, 54 catches). Most importantly, he catches it when it matters, in the red zone. Goedert leads the team in touchdowns with nine. He’s coming off a 156 and 260-point game and this week he faces a Commanders D that is awful at stopping the tight end.
TE POINTS
Robio – 162
Don – 242
PLACE KICKERS – Chris Boswell (Robio) vs Ka’imi Fairbairn (Don)
While I’ve played roto-kicker all season, Don has pretty much stuck with the Texans kicker. Fairbairn has been one of the best, making 33 of 37 this season, although all his misses have been from 50+. Still, he’s playing at home in the dome this week against a defense that is ranked only 15th against place kickers.
I added a new kicker this week, going with Chris Boswell, who gets to kick in a dome against the 24th ranked team vs place kickers. Oddly enough, this will be just his second game this year kicking in a dome. The only other time he did, he booted a 59-yard field goal. On the season though, he’s only attempted 24 field goals and only eight from beyond 50. He can make them, but will he get enough attempts?
PK POINTS
Robio – 110 points
Don – 120 points
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS – Lions D/ST (Robio) vs Broncos D/ST (Don)
As of this writing, I’m benching the 49ers D/ST, who will be headed to Indy. I like the idea of them facing a 94-year-old quarterback, but I was not impressed with their game last week against Tennessee. They have relied on turnovers to get their stats and my gut says the Colts are going to try to pound them with Jonathan Taylor. The Lions play a sluggish Steelers offense that seems to struggle to put up points when they head inside, although they have scored 55 points in their last two games with Aaron Rodgers back, a man who has many career highlights in Detroit. See, I’m already changing my mind.
The Broncos are one of the best defenses in the league and they just shutdown a solid Packers offense at home. This week, they get another offense that’s been playing well and again they’ll be at home. The Jaguars are only 16th against D/STs in fantasy, but since week ten, they have scored at least 27 points in every game, including 84 combined points in their last two. They’re not going to score 27 against the Broncos, but Denver won’t be coming through with a 200-point performance.
DST POINTS –
Robio – 108 points
Don – 152 points
CANKLES McTACO TITS OVER CLASS OF 2029 , 1,719 – 1,644
My backs have been my source of dominance, but against Don, there will be no domination. His boys can put up just as much as mine can. In fact, I have Gibbs topping 400+ this week. With the quarterbacks being a wash, Don has a major advantage at tight end and small advantages at kicker and D/ST. For me to truly overcome this, I need my wideouts to dominate Don’s hands. During a normal week, I’d say, “no problem.” However, with Nacua making the wrong kind of noise on Podcasts and facing the Seahawks without Adams on the other side, he’s going to find space hard to come by. I’m going to score a lot of points, but Don will score more, and return to the title game for the first time since 2008.
#2 Football? (Jeff) vs #7 Lolita Express (Bob)
RECORD
Jeff: 11-4
Bob: 10-5
POINTS
Jeff: 1,378
Bob: 1,486
BREAKDOWN
Jeff: 93-72
Bob: 106-58-1 (9-6 vs Jeff)
HISTORY
Bob has taken care of business against Jeff for the most part. He dominated early, winning their first three meetings and was 7-1 through 2015. However, between 2016-2022, Jeff took control, winning seven of 11, including a stunning-at-the-time quarterfinals upset in 2020. As the 5-seed, Jeff took down 4-seed Bob, 1,889 – 1,322. Two weeks later, he would defeat me and earn his first and only championship.
Since that victory, Bob has owned Jeff in the regular season, winning four straight, but note I said regular season. These two met again in the playoffs, this time the 2024 quarterfinals and once again, Jeff (this time the 4-seed) ended Bob’s season with a 1,610 – 1,555 victory.
Bob leads the all-time series, 15-9, but Jeff is 2-0 in the playoffs, with both wins coming in the 2020’s.
THIS SEASON
These two faced off twice this year and both ended with Bob victories. In week three, only St. Brown managed to top 200 (he scored 214) for Jeff, as no other skill player scored a TD. Achane and Williams only combined for 336 points and Jordan Love finished with 138, which was 18 more than Drake London produced. Meanwhile, Bob got 280 from McCaffrey, 278 from AJ Brown and 252 from Smith-Njigba. He didn’t have Kyren Williams yet, so he had to start Nick Chubb (80 points) and with Jayden Daniels out, Castrone started Aaron Rodgers, who scored 184 points. It was enough, as Bob won, 1,313. – 1,053.
Eleven weeks later, during our final regular season game, Bob once again walked away a winner. Led by Matt Stafford’s 366 points and Smith-Njigba’s 302, as well as 454 combined points from Kyren Williams and AJ Brown, Bob was able to overcome McCaffrey on his bye and the fact he only got 100 combined points from McLaurin and Andrews.
Jeff got 566 points from Jordan Love (296) and Achane (270), but with London out, Olave only managed 60 fantasy points, while Strange delivered just 54 points at the tight end spot. Bob won, 1,485 – 1,293.
THE BATTLES WITHIN
QUARTERBACKS – Jordan Love (Jeff) vs Matt Stafford (Bob)
On any given week, I would argue that Bob has a massive advantage. Jordan Love has had his moments, but there is no rhyme or reason for them, while Matt Stafford has been a quarterback force at 37 years old. He’s about to pass 4,000 yards and has 37 touchdowns to just five interceptions (and three fumbles). Meanwhile, Love only has 23 touchdowns and 15 of those have come in just five games.
Yet, this could be one of those weeks where Love > Stafford. The Packers are headed to Chicago to take on their rivals. They faced off just two weeks ago and Love had three touchdowns (he only tossed it around 25 times). The Packers are coming off their worst game of the year, so they will be motivated to put up some points and try to win their division.
Stafford is also trying to lead his team to a division title and is facing their biggest foe, but the difference is, the Seahawks defense is really fucking good. They’re #1 against wideouts and #6 against quarterbacks in fantasy. The Rams need to head to Seattle on a short week (they play Thursday) and Stafford won’t have Adams to throw to. Look for Seattle to focus on Nacua and force a couple of Stafford turnovers. He’s had six in the last four games.
QB POINTS
Jeff – 316 points
Bob – 228 points
RUNNING BACKS – De’Von Achane & Javonte Williams (Jeff) vs Christian McCaffrey & Kyren Williams (Bob)
Like myself and Don, this matchup features a heavyweight bout in the backfield. There’s no reason to compare stats, because they all have big digits, so let’s talk matchups. Bob’s backs face tougher foes. McCaffrey who has continued to do great, despite the fact he’s still only averaging 3.6 yards per carry, heads to Indianapolis, who is 10th vs running backs. The Colts held the Seahawks to just 48 rushing yards last week and the only back to rush for 100 yards against this year was Kareem Hunt. The Colts are also 11th when it comes to backs catching the ball, giving up only four per game. McCaffrey is going to deliver, as he always does, because he’ll get the volume.
Speaking of running backs catching the ball, Kyren Williams isn’t known for his receiving skills. He has just 27 receptions on the year. He faces the Seahawks, who are fifth against the run. However, they have given up 80 receptions on the season to running backs, which is the most in the NFL. If the Rams are wise, instead of trying to pound it into the Seattle defensive wall, they should be passing it to Williams in open space. The only small hiccup for Bob is, this is a short week, so I expect Los Angeles to nearly turn their backfield into a timeshare. The fact is, Blake Corum has looked amazing and has touched the ball 24 times in the last two games and he has 283 yards and four scores in his last three.
CBS is expecting big things from Achane this week. The Dolphins back is back home facing the worst run defense in the league. They’re projecting over 300 points. I get it. I support it. Yet, Miami just announced they are benching Tua and they’ll be starting Quinn Ewers. The rookie has dropped back to pass just eight times (all in week seven). He completed five for 53 yards, but was sacked twice. Achane has been so amazing because Tua relies on him so heavily. I’m sure the Fins will want to run the ball down the Bengals’ throats, but if Cincy doesn’t respect the quarterback, they could put up an 8-man front.
Javonte Williams will be home facing the Chargers D, who are 11th against the run. While they’ve shutdown some running games this year (Chiefs: 37 yards, Raiders: 37 yards, Vikings 34 yards), they’ve also struggled some. Saquon Barkley rushed for 122 yards just two weeks ago, Etienne-Tuten combined for 147, Achane had 150 total yards, as did Jacory Croskey-Merritt. The Chargers are execellent against the pass, so look for Dallas to rely on Williams, who has at least 194 points in his last four games.
RB POINTS
Jeff – 510 points | Achane: 246, J. Williams: 264
Bob – 412 points | McCaffrey: 242, K. Williams: 170
WIDE RECEIVERS – Amon-Ra St. Brown & Michael Wilson (Jeff) vs Jaxon Smith-Njigba & A.J. Brown (Bob)
This matchup features two of the best wideouts in Smith-Njigba and St. Brown. Both have played great, both have put up a 400-point effort in the last month, both play at home and both have a very favorable matchup. Since St. Brown had his 400-point effort last week, I’m going to favor JSN here. In a short week, the game plan is not as creative, so a quarterback is going to lean on his studs. I expect Smith-Njigba to get at least 12 targets, he’ll catch at least eight for over 115 yards and a score.
St. Brown faces the Steelers, who are only ranked 21st among wideouts in fantasy. In their first eight games, they gave up 197 yards per game to receivers and seven touchdowns. Since then, it’s down to 112 yards per game and five scores. They haven’t given up a TD to a wideout the last two weeks and held both the Bills and Dolphins receivers to under 40 total yards. Now, neither of those teams have St. Brown and he’s not being held to sub-40 yards. Instead, he’ll have a respectable 7-70, as the Lions ride Gibbs-Montgomery.
So, what about the other guys. For Bob, all good. After a tragic start to the year, A.J. Brown has averaged 252 fantasy points over his last four games, even as he was only targeted twice last week. He’ll get more this week, as the Commanders don’t command the air, ranked 26th among all defenses against the pass.
As for Jeff, it’s another week without Drake London, but he does have Michael Wilson. While AJ Brown has been good for Bob for a month, Wilson has been solid for five weeks now, averaging 250 per game. He also has a favorable matchup, facing the Falcons at home (25th against wideouts). This is a key position battle Jeff needs to win. I have his backs outscoring Bob’s backs, so he doesn’t want Castrone balancing things out at the wideout spot.
WR POINTS
Jeff – 338 points | St. Brown: 140, Wilson: 198
Bob – 482 points | Smith-Njigba: 290 points, Brown: 192
TIGHT ENDS – Harold Fannin Jr. (Jeff) vs Colston Loveland (Bob)
Both teams head into the semifinals with a pair of rookies who technically aren’t even the top tight ends on their team. Fannin Jr. this season has slowly begun to replace David Njuko, but with Sanders now at quarterback and Njuko out hurt, Fannin has become the top target in Cleveland. Over his last two games, he has 21 targets, 15 catches for 162 yards and a score. Those are great numbers. The only problem is, the Browns are facing the Bills, who are ranked first facing tight ends. Mike Gesicki and Travis Kelce are the only tight ends to top 50 yards and the Bills have only given up two touchdowns all year to tight ends.
Colston Loveland is coming off his second best game of the season (4 catches, 63 yards), but on average, he’s not a big play threat. He relies on short passes and if he’s targeted more than five times, consider it a blessing. Like Fannin, he faces a tough foe, taking on the Packers who are 8th vs tight ends. The reality is, if either of these guys has a big day, they could swing the game. However, I don’t expect much for either.
TE POINTS
Jeff – 107 points
Bob – 89 points
PLACE KICKERS – Eddy Pineiro (Jeff) vs Chase McLaughlin (Bob)
Greenblatt makes a change at the kicker spot, picking up the 49ers kicker. Makes sense after he hit three field goals and four extra points last week. The 49ers offense is humming with most of the important pieces healthy and even though they are playing a tough defensive Colts team this week, they’ll be playing in a dome. Oddly enough, Pineiro hasn’t missed a field goal all year (25-for-25), but he’s missed four extra points.
Bob is sticking with Chase McLaughlin. He’s 26-of-30 in field goals, but is 10-for-10 from 50+. He’s also made 27 of his 28 extra points. The best part is, he’s topped 100 fantasy points in three straight, as the Buccaneers offense is always good for a stall or two. Look for more stalls in Carolina this week.
PK POINTS
Jeff – 180 points
Bob – 150 points
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS – Buccaneers D/ST (Jeff) vs Chargers D/ST (Bob)
Bob starts the better defense, as the Chargers are the fourth best in fantasy, while the Buccaneers are just 22nd. Yet, do you care about that stat or the matchup stat? Because the Chargers are on the road facing the Cowboys, who are the fourth best offense against fantasy D/STs this year. Their numbers are even better at home.
The Bucs are facing the Panthers in Charlotte. Carolina is also better at home, but they are only 22nd vs D/STs this year. Still, the Bucs are coming off their worst performance of the year and taking on a Panthers team that they are competing with for a playoff spot. Meanwhile the Chargers are facing a team that just got eliminated from the playoffs. I’d give the advantage to the Chargers, but only so slightly.
DST POINTS –
Jeff – 114 points
Bob – 128 points
FOOTBALL? OVER LOLITA EXPRESS, 1,565 – 1,489
Last week after the Klye Pitts performance, it seemed like Bob’s season was going to end right there on a Thursday night. Well, it didn’t. Eric still had seven other players to play and none of them were as good as Bob’s. Yet, once again, a lot will be riding on Thursday night.
With McCaffrey facing a tough foe, Bob needs big numbers from Matt Stafford and Kyren Williams and they’re going to have to do it on a short week…on the road…against the league’s best defense. Back in Los Angeles, the Hawks slowed the Rams down, holding them to 21 points and only 249 total yards. I anticipate them doing better this week at home, which is why I have Jeff advancing to his 5th title game since 2016 to take on Don Vozzola.
No, I don’t think Achane is going to dominate like CBS says he will, but I do expect Jordan Love to outperform Stafford and Javonte Williams will deliver 100 total yards and a score.
Good luck!