Repeating ain’t easy. We’ve covered this before. However, how long can one hangover really last for? Let’s investigate the most recent and pile on Rich Calderon.
THE CHAMPIONSHIP
Prior to 2013, the label of “best team to not win championship” was stuck on Rich Calderon like that tattoo on Rob Masterson’s ass that reads, “Jenna, 2 Lovers 2 Gether 4 Ever.”
Yet, 2013 was the year that label was wiped away for good, when Rich finally won a fantasy championship, defeating perennial title-game loser, Griff.
It was a fitting result after an amazing seven-year run that saw Calderon produce six eight-win seasons, six playoff trips, earning the 2-seed a stunning four times during a six-year span, plus one scoring title in 2010. At that point, he had got 23-7 in his last 30 games, the most wins during a two-season period in the 13 game era.
Yet prior, too often, those great regular seasons ended in disaster come playoff time. Before to 2013, Rich was 0-3 in the post-season as a two-seed, managing to reach the finals just once, way back in 2007, as a 7-seed that eventually fell to Matt.
In 2013 things would be different though.
Despite an average draft at best (where he would eventually cut seven of his 15 drafted players, including his 3rd and 4th round picks), Rich still managed to produce his second straight 10-win season. It helped that his squad was led by a pair of great keepers in LeSean McCoy in round one and DeMarco Murray in round 13. He also had Tony Romo (5th rd pick, finished 7th among quarterbacks) and week two free agent steal, Julian Thomas (finished third among tight ends).
Calderon would finish the season earning another 2-seed, finishing fourth in scoring, but now came the hard part…surviving round one against 7-seeded Bob, a man known for slaying the high seeds, including Calderon the season before. If Rich could find a way to win, the next obstacle was the defending champ. I was 10-2, first in scoring and the top seed.
Well, we all know what happened. Calderon took care of business, crushing Bob, sending him home in the quarters for only the second time in Bob’s career. The following week, Rich got a little help, as Griff pulled off the upset, defeating me for the only time in the post-season.
The stage was set…Calderon was the favorite in the championship game, yet give him credit…he certainly tried to blow it. In a still stunning move, he cut four starters, including Tony Romo, for four players he had never used before. The actual decision was a disaster, as all four new starters scored less than the player he replaced…yet, Rich’s dynamic keeper duo of McCoy and Murray were too much. They combined for 688 points and were able to overcome Peyton Manning’s 592 points to take down Griff and bring Rich his first fantasy title.
Of course, we know that history. The question now is…what the fuck happened since that glorious moment? It’s fair question, because since that title run, it appears The Dick-Taters have suffered through a brutal 22-game hangover.
THE HANGOVER
2014 SEASON
PRESEASON
Heading into the year, Calderon was consider one of the favorites, thanks to another solid core of keepers, including his starting backfield…this time LeSean McCoy in round one and Zac Stacy in round 12. He also had top-3 stud, TE Julian Thomas, back again. Rich went on to draft well up top with Jordy Nelson and Matt Stafford in round 2/3. In fact, Rich felt so confident, he decided to use some starter-worthy picks to bet on the future, taking running backs Jeremy Hill, Carlos Hyde and Devonta Freeman, three backs who didn’t start, in rounds 5-7.
RESULTS
The season started great, as Rich earned the weekly high score in a week one victory. Yet, that result would be the highlight of the season. He would drop his next three, his first three-game losing streak since 2011, that also including his fourth career weekly low score in week three. Even a pair of wins failed to impress, because he scored just 1,023 and 1,076 in wins over the Coomer family. After eight weeks, Rich was 3-5, outside the playoffs looking in.
Late in the season, thanks to Jeremy Hill getting the start duo to a Gio Bernard injury, Rich was able to rally to split four games, but heading into the final week, he was just 5-7, tied with Don for that 8-seed, but still not in the playoffs because he was over 400 points down in total points. Worse yet, Don was facing a bad Jeff team, while Calderon was stuck playing a 8-4, playoff bound Matt squad.
In the end, Calderon got the miracle, as his squad played the best game of their season. Don won, but he scored just 985 points, while Rich’s boys produced 2,163 points in a win over Matt.
Yet, despite earning the 8-seed, the defending champ had little hope. He was facing arguable the greatest team ever (1-seeded Bob), while Calderon was just ninth in scoring. This one wasn’t even close, as Bob crushed Rich’s dream of a repeat by nearly 1,200 points.
WHAT WENT WRONG
Let’s start up top…McCoy, Rich’s first-round keeper, struggled all season in Philly. A year after earning first-team All-Robio, he was putting up just RB2 type numbers until a late push got him into the top-10. Worse yet, Rich had counted on Zach Stacy being the man in St. Louis, but he lost his starting job after just one week (although Rich did grab Tre Mason, who managed to deliver low-end RB2 numbers).
At quarterback, Matt Stafford was on the verge of making the jump to super-duper elite status, but with a new offensive coordinator, he proved to be a huge bust and fell off the map with a ton of turnovers (finishing 16th). Rich was never able to find a better option, which really killed his season. Add in Julian Thomas’ injury issues, zero sleepers on his roster (no player drafted after round seven survived the season on his roster) and the fact Rich made little splash on the free agent market (Tre Mason was the only decent grab) and you see why Rich was never able to build a winner in 2014.
2015 Season
PRESEASON
Rich looked to write off last season’s struggles by heading into the new year with arguable his best keeper class ever.
Jeremy Hill was so good at the end of 2014, he was declared the starter in Cincinnati and projected to be a top-five back. Out west, Carlos Hyde was now the starter in San Francisco with Frank Gore gone. Those two would only cost Rich his fifth and sixth round picks. On top of that, he had insurance with Jonathon Stewart deep in round 12, who was no longer sharing carries with DeAgelo Williams in Carolina.
Heading into the draft, Rich had all his top picks and the only tough decision was whether to take Andrew Luck with the fifth overall pick or an elite wide receiver. Eric ended up helping him make that call when he took Antonio Brown with the third pick, so Rich grabbed Dez Bryant. The decision paid off, as Aaron Rodgers fell into his lap in round two. One round later he took Jimmy Graham and just like that Rich has five potential All-Robio players.
With this lineup already rocking, Rich decided to do a little reaching when he drafted the suspended Martavis Bryant early in the draft and an injured (and out for the season) Kelvin Benjamin later, but you can do that when you have great keepers.
I instantly put Calderon at the top of my preseason rankings.
RESULTS (SO FAR)
While week one didn’t deliver a blowout performance, it did hand Rich a win over Griff and featured solid performances from his two starting backs (even though he actually benched Hyde, who nearly produced 500 fantasy points). It was a positive performance; one that would prove to be a fluke.
Calderon would go on to lose six of his next seven games. His only win came in week four, when he beat 1-7 Molly by scoring only 1,003 points. At the time of this writing, Rich was 2-6, sitting in 10th place, barely avoiding the lowest point total by 56 points. He’s already produced two weekly low scores this season.
WHAT WENT WRONG
Well…everything. First, that world class running attack has bombed big time. Jeremy Hill fumbled away his starting job and is now in a solid committee with Gio Bernard. Carlos Hyde showed potential, but the 49ers have been bad and the quarterback has been a dumpster fire. Now Hyde is hurt. Both are still capable of putting up solid games, but both also have proven to lay plenty of eggs. Of course Rich could have slid in Jonathan Stewart, but he cut him earlier and now he’s rocking out weekly 250-point games for Jeff.
At quarterback, Aaron Rodgers has shown the ability to hide a lot of teams’ flaws in the past. However, he’s been anything but flawless lately. He’s failed to crack 300 in his last four games. Much like last season with Matt Stafford, there is little Rich can do. Rodgers is too good to bench or replace, so he has to just hope the Packers’ quarterback finds his groove again soon.
On top of all that, Rich lost Dez Bryant after week one and he just got him back. He still doesn’t look 100% and it certainly doesn’t help that he has no quarterback right now. Martavis Bryant is back, but he was shutout the first week back and the only true highlight was one 80-yard touchdown.
Worse yet, none of Rich’s late picks have proven to be sleepers and he’s struggled to make good decisions both with his lineup and when adding players for a week and let’s face it, his only good get on the wire was Donte Moncrief, who helped out while Dez was out, although his numbers have been dipping lately.
OFFICIAL HANGOVER RESULTS:
RECORD: 8-14
POINTS: 1,169 PPG – Only Don has scored less points in the last 22 games.
1,500-Pt Games vs games below 1,000: 5 over 1,500, 5 under 1,000
LOW SCORES: 4 weekly lows in last 19 games. He had 3 in his previous 150 games.
CAN THIS GET FIXED?
Short answer…yes.
Long answer…we still have five games left and because we have a collection of really good teams and really bad teams, Rich is only one game out of a playoff spot (and still gets to face the team currently in 8th place). He also has a winnable schedule. He faces three losing teams (2-6) Robio, (3-5) Jeff and (1-7) Molly. He also faces Bob (which will be a tough one to win), plus a rematch with Griff in week 12. He can’t do any worse than 3-2, but because of his scoring issues, he’ll probably need to go 4-1.
While I’m not expecting big numbers this week at Carolina, I do expect Aaron Rodgers to bounce back. Dez Bryant will get Tony Romo back soon enough and Martavis Bryant finally has a healthy Big Ben in the lineup. However, the key was this week’s free agent pick up, DeAngelo Williams. Rich dropped a stunning $75 to get him and I can’t blame him one bit. In fact, because of this addition, Calderon went from being the underdog against me to the favorite.
With Bell out for the year, Williams is now the feature back in Pittsburgh. He was the feature back for the season’s first two weeks and delivered 628 points. He’s a huge, season-changing get. He probably gives Rich a true RB1, which allows him to rotate Hill and Hyde at the RB2 spot. There’s still hope.
Remember the league motto: Just get to the playoffs; any moron can win three games.