Early next week, I’m going to show you who were the best free agent pick ups this season. However, before we head into the weekend, let’s start off with the bad and try to show you some of the worst, bone-headed free agent decisions of 2015.
There are three ways to look at bad free agent moves…
MONEY WASTED
First, those who bid way too much on a player that did nothing for them. What is too much? I’d argue anything over $10 and getting nothing in return.
Rob Masterson dropped $12 in week five on C.J. Spiller, after the Saints running back delivered a game-winning 80-yard touchdown in overtime against the Cowboys. That one play netted him 240 fantasy points. However, Spiller would score just 386 fantasy points the rest of the season and none of those points came while he was in Rob’s starting lineup.
I, Robio Murray, spent $18 on Willie Snead in week six. He would break 200 just one more time all season, long after I cut him in week eight.
Richard Burrier dropped $12 on Matt Cassel. Rich never started the Cowboys’ quarterback and cut him just two weeks later.
Of course, the “least bang for a buck” award has to go to Jeff Greenblatt, who spent $47 on Alfred Blue in week eight after Arian Foster tore his ACL. That’s a lot of money for a guy who had already proven earlier that year he was not ready for prime time when Foster didn’t play to start the season. Jeff ended up keeping Blue around for a while. He did manage a pair of 200+ games, but he never sniffed the Picnic’s starting lineup and was cut come playoff time.
SOUL CRUSHING DROPS
The second way to determine a bad free agent decision is to find the kind of drops that make you want to punch your spouse. These are players who got that cut and then later would go on to do amazing things.
I already talked about this in my 2015 Draft Rewind, but it’s worth mentioning again. Eric Vozzola grabbed DeAngelo Williams, who showed his worth in the season’s first two weeks when Le’Veon Bell was suspended. Bell eventually came back and dominated, yet Eric kept Williams around for a long while…until week nine. That’s when he cut DeAngelo Williams for Giants RB Orleans Darkwa. Well, that Sunday, Bell would shred his ACL and be done for the year and Williams would average 289 PPG the rest of the way. Darkwa ended up costing Eric $11, never starting a game and scored just 122 fantasy points in the three weeks he remained on Eric’s bench.
Of course, Eric will get past the mistake he made with DeAngelo now that the season is over. I, on the other hand, will probably have to live with my mistake for the next year or two. As I’ve already talked about this before, I drafted David Johnson of the Cardinals, expecting him to take the starting job at some point in the season. Once it was clear Chris Johnson would be the man in the desert, I cut my Johnson in week five. However, in week 12, Chris Johnson was knocked out for the season. I didn’t have the money to pick my Johnson back up. Griff dropped just $23 and the Cardinals running back, who would deliver about 65 fantasy points for every dollar Griff spent. Best yet for Griff, worse yet for me, he can keep David Johnson deep in round nine next year if he wants.
Here’s another classic case of a guy getting cut and going off. Russell Wilson struggled all season long, so it’s hard to blame Molly Coomer for cutting him. Yet, it proved to be costly, especially when you consider how close she came to making the playoffs down the stretch. Wilson would average 465 points per game in the season’s final seven games, including three straight 500-pt games. Ouch, especially if Bob ends up keeping him next year.
Let’s get back to me again, I had LeGarrette Blount for almost the entire season, but in week nine I cut him for the Saints defense (for reasons I’ll never understand). Of course that Sunday, Dion Lewis was injured and out for the year and just like that, Blount was the starter in New England. Yes, he would eventually also be taken out by injury, but his 532 points scored in week nine and ten could have helped by playoff push. Instead, Don got him and started him.
In week two, Colby Hall grabbed Chris Johnson, who worked out good for about a half of a season, but he probably wished he dropped somehow else and not Darren McFadden. The Cowboys running back took over starting duties in week seven and became one of the most consistent backs in football, averaging 220 fantasy points per game for me.
Wide receiver Doug Baldwin was an unwanted man. He was picked up twice and cut twice, first by Colby Hall in week four and then again in week nine by Griff Coomer. The following week after Griff cut him, as a free agent, Baldwin scored 382 points. Calderon picked him up and enjoyed him like a teenage boy dating a porn star. Down the stretch, Baldwin would average 297 points per game, which makes it even more stunning that Calderon got him for zero dollars. Ironically, Calderon almost put himself on this list, because he cut Baldwin in week 12, but managed to get him back the following week.
In week six, I cut Derrick Carr, which proved to be a big mistake. He would scored over 300 in four of his next five games (including a pair of 400-point games), while my team starved for a quarterback.
Hey, it’s me again. In week seven I cut Justin Forsett’s handcuff, Javorius Allen. Maybe with his help, I could have made the playoffs and used his three 200+ games and one 4oo-point game between the weeks 11-16.
Man, I made a lot of mistakes this year. In the season’s final week, I cut Jordan Reed. No big deal in terms of this season, because I was already eliminated from the playoffs then. However, Reed scored 966 points in weeks 13-15, which makes him a very valuable keeper (for Calderon) next year in round nine.
WRONG DECISIONS
The third and final way to judge a bad free agent decision is to see who could have put a bid down and won a player, but failed to. Now I have no idea how much people put forth on losing bids, so I can only look at those who spent their money on the wrong player.
Here’s a classic case where picking the wrong guy cost someone a game. Back in week seven, Rich Calderon needed a quarterback and was picking between Blake Bortles and Ryan Tannehill (a player he had cut earlier in the season). At the same time, I was making the same decision. Rich and I both made the same choice, Bortles, but while I just put in a bid of $1, Rich put in a bid of $2 and won. Thus, I went and got Tannehill. Well, the Dolphins quarterback score 394 points, leading me to a tight 49-point win over Molly (my first victory of the year). Meanwhile, Calderon lost to Matt by 202 points. However, if he had Tannehill, he would have won by two. The decision cost Rich a win, but on the bright side it eventually had no barring on the season. Even with a win, Calderon would have still missed the playoffs and Matt would have remained the 5-seed.
One of the biggest head scratching decisions also involved Blake Bortles . After Le’Veon Bell got hurt, it was clear DeAngelo Williams was going to be the man in Pittsburgh now. Best yet, he had already proven this season that when he was a starter, he was a starter worth having. In week nine, plenty of folks had free agent dollars left, but Don had the most (I believe it was $76). At the time, Don Vozzola was 1-7 and had struggled to land players on the wire. He had nothing to lose. When asked by Don, I stated that others would spend every dime to get Williams, so if he wanted him, he would need to pay.
Well…Calderon ended up spending everything ($75) and getting DeAngelo, while for reasons I’ll never understand, Don, who did put in a bid for Williams, spent $31 on Blake Bortles. Fucking $31. This made no sense. Yes, Don needed a quarterback and Bortles did end up starting for him down the stretch and playing really well, but who was he bidding against? I doubt to this day anyone else had put a bid in for Bortles that week. Prior to that week he had been added three times to a team’s roster for a total of $2. He was coming off a bye-week (and just a 190-point game the week before). The only silver lining in all this is, even if Don had both Williams and Bortles, he still would have missed the playoffs, although he would have avoided last place.
While Don’s decision up top didn’t keep him from the playoffs and certainly not from a championship run, one has to wonder how far Matt could have gone if he made a different decision a long time ago. See, back in week three, Matt Neatock got Travis Benjamin, who put up some solid numbers, finishing 20th among all receivers. That week he got him, I’m sure there were multiple bids, since the former Miami Hurricane receiver was coming off a 350-pt game. Yet, this was still the Browns. However, that didn’t stop Matt from spending big, dropping $51 on Benjamin…a stunning amount.
The problem is, he could have had the league’s number one running back in 2015 for a lot less. First-team All-Robio running back, Devonta Freeman, was cut the previous week by Burrier, ended up going right back to the Hype when he was named the starter in Atlanta after Trevor Coleman went down in week two. Rich got him for $27 or $24 less than Matt paid for Benjamin. As good as the Browns wide receiver was for Matt (he was in and out of his starting lineup all season long), just imagine how great Matt’s squad could have been with Freeman, especially because the one giant flaw of his team was that he was stuck playing Melvin Gordan and one of the Packers running backs all season long.