Keepers are in. The season has officially begun and it’s never too early to starting thinking about what photo you want to use on your championship mug and it’s certainly not too soon to begin panicking and questioning why you constantly put yourself through this, imagining how much better your life would be without fantasy football.
Next up is the draft in two weeks. For some, the research begins now. For others, it began weeks ago. For a few, they’ll pick up those fantasy magazine at the local 7-11 right before the draft, which will help explai why that someone will draft some third string back, just days from getting cut, in the third round.
Anyhow, to help ease you into the phase, here are my stellar thoughts on 2016’s crop of keepers.
1. GRIFF COOMER
RD 1 – ADRIAN PETERSON, RB MIN
RD 6 – DAVID JOHNSON, RB ARI
RD 14 – ODELL BECKHAM, WR NYG
Let’s just say it, this trio is without a doubt the greatest set of keepers ever kept. Will they remain so at season’s end? Time will tell.
However, before the draft even begins, Griff has three guys who have good shots at earning first-team All-Robio. If we didn’t have keepers, these three would be three of the top five picks in the draft (Antonio Brown and Todd Gurley would arguable be the other two).
The only slimmer of hope for the rest of us is the fact that Griff does have to use his firsr round pick on Peterson, so it’s not like he has these three guys, plus the 12th and 13th pick, just these three guys and the 13th pick. It’s not much, but it’s something.
2. BOB CASTRONE
RD 4 – TODD GURLEY, RB LA
RD 9 – LAMAR MILLER, RB HOU
RD 14 – BENGALS, DST CIN
It’s still hard to believe Gurley survived to the fourth round, especially when you get a look of the list of running backs drafted ahead of him (I’m looking at you Tre Mason). With a fresh start out in LA, Gurley has a legit shot at finishing fantasy as the top back. CBS Sports believes him in, as he is the costliest player in fantasy in 2016.
Bob had a tough decision in category two: Lamar Miller or Russell Wilson. The way he exploded at the end of last season, no one would have faulted him if he kept Wilson (averaging nearly 500 PPG in the season’s final month, but in the end, Bob decided to try to match Griff with a stud backfield duo. I wouldn’t put Miller in the same group as AP, DJ and Gurley, in fact I think he’s getting a little too much foreplay because of the move to Houston, but I still think he’s a top-10 back.
In category three, Bob surprised me, keeping the Bengals DST over Marcus Mariota. It’s not like the Titans quarterback blew me away last year and I don’t see anyone drafting him as a starter this season, but Bob redshirted him, which means he had time to let him grow. Having said that, I’m fine with the Bengals keep. They’re a top-five DST and it means all three of Bob’s keepers will be starters on opening day.
3. COLBY HALL
RD 5 – DOUG MARTIN, RB TB
RD 8 – MIKE EVANS, WR TB
RD 11 – CARSON PALMER, QB ARI
Gone is Alshon Jeffery (hopefully Colby properly thanked Eric for that one), but Hall should get over his loss easily with a trio of solid keepers. First up are his Tampa connections, keeping both Doug Martin and Mike Evans. There is little reason to believe Colby is not getting two top-10 players at their respected position. Martin was a fantasy season killer for a couple years there, which is why he survived to the fifth round last year, yet he rebounded in a run-heavy Buccaneers offense and proved to be one of the better steals drafted last year.
At receiver, once he got healthy, Mike Evans eventually clicked with Winston and that’s the of relationship that could make both players fantasy stars for years to come. Evans could walk out of the 2016 season with 1,300 yards and ten scores and I wouldn’t be surprised at all.
In round 11, Colby gets to keep Carson Palmer. Now he’s 36 years old (14 years in the league), with a pair of ACL injuries in his career. Those are red flags. However, last season, with an excellent receiving core, plus running backs with hands, he passed for 4,700 yards and 35 scores. I don’t see him doing that again, but if he hits 4,000 yards and 30 scores, that still makes him a fantastic start each week.
4. RICH CALDERON
RD 2 – LE’VEON BELL, RB PIT
RD 9 – JORDAN REED, TE WAS
RD 11 – KEVIN BENJAMIN, WR CAR
Rich smartly traded for Bell last year after he got hurt, expecting him to lead him back to the promise land in 2016, then the idiot got suspended for four games. Obviously he will be back and Bell can certainly still deliver, but Calderon might have to waste a high pick to land a four-week handcuff or replacement.
For a while, I had Rich keeping Carlos Hyde, but he smartly went with Jordan Reed, one of two players I cut last year who are being kept this year (David Johnson being the other). When healthy, Reed reminds folks of Gronk, but the health part has been challenging for him.
Kevin Benjamin is a bit of mystery. He had a fantastic rookie season, but missed all of last year with an ACL injury. I’m not worried about his recovery, as players comeback a lot stronger now. I’m curious to see how he smoothly mixes back into a different Carolina offense. At the very least, Calderon can probably rely on him as a WR2 right out of the gate.
5. RICHARD BURRIER
RD 4 – DEVONTA FREEMAN, RB ATL
RD 13 – DEANDRE HOPKINS, WR HOU
DeVonta Freeman is a must keep, especially in round four, but I suspect he’s not going to be an All-Robio back this year. The fact is, when Freeman exploded for a month last year, a lot of it had to do with touchdowns (nine in four games). As soon as those dried up and Trevor Coleman returned from injury, Freeman was a good, but not great fantasy back. Want a solid prediction? I say he finishes 10th among all backs.
Now DeAndre Hopkins is a lock for an All-Robio, part of the new elite receivers that features Beckham, Brown, Julio and this guy. Just think, he was the third best receiver last year with no help on the other side, no running game and shit for quarterback.
Lastly, for the second straight year, I question Rich’s decision to leave off what I deem a solid keeper in category two. Last year, he passed on Justin Forsett in round six. The Ravens back did produce a pair of 300-point games, but was knocked out for the year mid-season, so that decision by Rich actually looks good.
This year though, I thought he should have kept Tyrod Taylor. Now no one is going to mistake the Bills quarterback for Tom Brady, but last year, despite missing a little time due to injury (and without his best receiver because of health), he finished 16th among all arms. Taking up just an 8th round pick, I would have liked to see what he could do in the second season in this system.
If not Taylor, why not Danny Woodhead? He finished 18th last year (80 receptions) and probably enters 2016 as a legitimate RB2, the kind of guy you want coming off your bench.
6. ROB MASTERSON
RD 3 – AMARI COOPER, WR OAK
RD 10 – MARK INGRAM, RB NO
RD 13 – JEREMY MACLIN, WR KC
Masterson walks into the season with the wide receiver spots set. Now neither was a WR1 last year, but both could be this season. Cooper was fantastic as a rookie, finishing 14th among all receivers, despite dealing with a nagging foot injury. With a year under his belt, why can’t he make a solid leap into the top-10 this season?
As for Maclin, he’s always going to be limited with Alex Smith as his quarterback, but let’s not forget, his 87 catches last season were a career high.
Lastly, Rob had a tough decision in category two. He had either Thomas Rawls for two more years in round six or Mark Ingram in round 10 for one more season. Rawls was the bigger risk, with the higher ceiling and deeper floor. Stepping in for Lynch last season, Rawls was one of the best backs in football. Yet, he’s coming off a bad ankle injury, thus the Seattle coaching staff drafted three running backs. That doesn’t scream confidence, does it?
Ingram is not a sexy keeper, especially with his consistent health issues (he’s never played 16 games as a starter), but he’s a steady back while playing, with back-to-back 1,100-yard seasons (despite missing those games). Rob can go ahead and pencil him in as a RB2 right now and feel good doing it.
7. ROBIO MURRAY
RD 6 – ALLEN ROBINSON, WR JAC
RD 11 – JORDY NELSON, WR GB
First, what I don’t have is a category one keeper, which is typical of failed teams. What I do have is a pair of top-10 wide receivers. Allen Robinson is entering his third year in the league and if he can get just 15-20 more targets this year, he could enter into ‘Julio Jones’ territory.
Jordy Nelson is on the wrong side of 30, but he’s a receiver, not a running back, so that by itself, is no big deal. Now being over 30, coming off an ACL injury makes me nervous. Still, I feel confident I can lock both these guys in as starters.
8. ERIC VOZZOLA
RD 1 – ANTONIO BROWN, WR PIT
RD 10 – SAMMY WATKINS, WR BUF
RD 11 – DEVANTE PARKER, WR MIA
With the seventh overall pick, Eric is getting arguable the top player in fantasy football. Although, we do have to wonder what his decision would have been if Tom Brady hadn’t been suspended for four games to begin the season. Remember, Eric could have had last year’s MVP in round five.
Sammy Watkins continues to be a great value deep in the draft, even though he didn’t live up to the hype last year. To do that this season, he needs to stay on the field, something that has been a problem for Sammy. If healthy, his ceiling can certainly be as high as DeAndre Hopkins was last year, his third in the league.
In category three, time will tell on Parker. Last year this guy was so bad, I was shocked he wasn’t cut. In the end, the light eventually clicked on and he put up a couple of decent games up on the board, but not sure we can quite pencil him in as Eric’s WR2.
9. MATT NEATOCK
RD 1 – JULIO JONES, WR ATL
RD 7 – RYAN MATTHEWS, RB PHI
RD 12 – ZACH ERTZ, TE PHI
Okay, Julio Jones is a must keep, especially on the back end of the first round. Fact is, Matt had little options in category one; just two in fact and no one in their right mind would keep Melvin Gordon.
However, in category two, Matt had plenty of good options. Philip Rivers with a healthy receiving core could be dangerous and imagine what Travis Benjamin could do with a real quarterback, yet Matt went homer with Ryan Matthews. I don’t blame him. The starting job is his, now that DeMarco was shipped elsewhere. Yet, after five years in this league, Matthews has never been a great back. Fumbles, injuries or a bad line, it’s always something. This year, Philly just smells like a committee to me. We shall see.
Quick, raise your hand if you think Matt kept Zach Ertz just so he could keep his stupid team name? Like every season, Ertiz has been in the league, we’re being told Ertz is ready to make the leap to elite. If he hasn’t done it yet, he’s not going to do it with the mess that is the Philly quarterback situation. Me personally, I would have kept the only game-changing defense (Broncos) in round 12.
10. JEFF GREENBLATT
RD 5 – DREW BREES, QB NO
RD 9 – DELANIE WALKER, TE TEN
RD 12 – JAMIE WINSTON, QB TB
Every offseason I predict (to myself) what players I think each team will keep. Usually I’m right, across the board. Worst case, I’ll miss one guy from a few teams. However, I only got one of Jeff’s three keepers correct. Now some might chuckle at the thought of keeping Drew Brees. I mean, he only finished 12th among all quarterbacks last season (despite only missing one game). Yet, Robioland’s stats are only through the fantasy regular season (13 weeks). If you add in all 16 weeks of the NFL season, he finished as top-five quarterback. Yet, Brees is not the guy I would have kept. Instead, I would have kept Keenan Allen one round later. The Chargers WR was on fire last year. In fact, prior to getting hurt in week eight, he was a top-five receiver.
In category two, Delanie Walker in round nine is a no-brainer. My tier one TE is Gronk…that’s it. My tier 1B is Reed and Olsen. I have Walker in that next group. As long as he and his quarterback remain healthy, Jeff won’t have to worry about his TE spot this season.
In category three we had another surprise, when Jeff kept Jameis Winston in round 15 over Jonathan Stewart three picks earlier. The Carolina back had his best season last year and was a big reason Jeff was able to get back to the post-season, but was his 2015 the new norm or was that the ceiling he won’t be able to reach again? Jeff is gambling on the latter. I would feel better about the Winston pick if Jeff had redshirted him last year and then had his rights for three more years. He was a productive rookie and he should continue to improve, but will he ever be good enough to replace Brees?
11. DON VOZZOLA
RD 12 – MATT JONES, RB WAS
RD 7 – JORDAN MATHEWS, WR PHI
With Alfred Morris gone in Washington, Matt Jones is probably the clear starter and a solid keep deep in the draft. Don should feel confident that he can put Jones in the starting lineup as his second running back.
In category one, Don passed on the hometown kid, Jarvis Landry, despite the fact he would have only cost him a fifth round pick. As a rookie two years ago, he caught 84 balls for 758 yards. In his sophomore campaign, he improved that number to 111 catches and 1,159 yards. Only two people in the league caught more balls (Antonio Brown and Julio Jones). Granted, he’s small ball (only 10.4 yards per reception) who doesn’t score much (just nine touchdowns in two seasons), but I definitely thought he was worth a 5th round pick.
In category two, Don went with Jordan Matthews, who was a frustrating underachiever last year. However, after a solid finish (he averaged 291 PPG in his final three) and a new head coach, using a 7th round pick on him is probably a good idea. However, the guy I probably would have kept was Blake Bortles, who was an 8th round keeper option. Last year, his second in the league, he finished 7th among all quarterbacks. Yes, seventh. He did that with a shitty offensive line, no running game and missing his star tight end for half the season. This year, everyone is healthy, the line is better and Chris Ivory is running the ball. Could have been a good keep in the 8th round.
12. MOLLY COOMER
RD 5 – T.Y. HILTON, WR IND
RD 12 – DERRICK CARR, QB OAK
Despite struggling last season, Hilton remains a no-brainer as a 5th round keeper. He’s got all the tools to be a great wide receiver. He just needs Andrew Luck to stay upright.
Down in round 12, Carr was a nice mid-season pick up last year, eventually finishing 9th among all quarterbacks. With another year under his belt, is year three the year he steps into the elite class?
Of course, we can’t just talk about those Molly kept. We also need to talk about those who were allowed back into the draft pool. In category two, Molly had arguable the league’s top defense (Seattle), but I don’t blame her for not keeping them. If she wants them again, I feel like she could just re-draft them. However, Molly did pass on a pair of starting running backs, both in round six.
Dion Lewis was one of the best pick ups in 2015 before getting knocked out for the season. Now we should always been hesitant when talking about a player when we use words like “knocked” and “out” to end a season. Yet, there is no reason to believe he won’t be back as the Patriots starter this season.
In Chicago, Jeremy Langford is the starter. Will he be a great starter? Will he remain the starter? I don’t know and I don’t know, but I don’t think the Bears let Matt Forte walk if they didn’t feel like they had options. At the very least, I would have been happy to risk a sixth round pick on either him or Lewis. Both players will be drafted before round six…probably.