Is there any one perfect draft spot? Maybe it’s picking first overall? I’ve pointed out in the past that it has produced great results? Yet, what about picking seventh or even last? Is there one spot in the draft everyone wished they could pick at? This post will try to answer this question and probably fail. That’s what I do, baby.
| PICK | WINS | LOSES | PCT | POST | TOP SEED | SCORING | TITLE GAMES | CHAMPION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 128 | 94 | .577 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| #2 | 105 | 108 | .493 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| #3 | 104 | 111 | .484 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| #4 | 110 | 108 | .505 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| #5 | 95 | 119 | .444 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| #6 | 108 | 105 | .507 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| #7 | 110 | 109 | .502 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| #8 | 108 | 111 | .493 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| #9 | 110 | 108 | .505 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| #10 | 100 | 117 | .461 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| #11 | 105 | 108 | .493 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| #12 | 116 | 102 | .529 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
Some quick fun facts:
- The first and last picks have dominated. The folks with back-t0-back picks have taken five top seeds, six scoring titles and have made it to the playoffs in 25 of the 30 possible tries.
- The top four picks are all teams that missed the playoffs the previous year. Between 2001-2010, those teams were good about getting back to the playoffs, about 73% of the time. However, lately, it’s gotten tougher. Four out of the last five seasons, at least two teams picking in the top four has missed the playoffs.
- Overall, of the top four picks, 20 have failed to make the playoffs the past 15 years. Yet, 12 of those have been a Vozzola (eight times it was Eric, four times it was Don). The other eight times were Griff and Masterson (2008), Burrier (2009), Molly (2010), Neatock (2013), Robio (2015) and Jeff, who is the only other person to do it twice (2011-2012).
- Defending champs aren’t first in wins, but they are the best at getting back to the playoffs. In fact, only two teams coming off title runs have failed to qualify for the playoffs (Bob in 2005, Matt in 2008).
- The past two champions have picked ninth. Good news for Matt, who picks ninth this year.
- The sixth pick has never reached a title game (sorry Burrier), but they have the longest active playoff streak, reaching the post-season the previous eight years.
- Picks five and eleven have missed the playoffs the most.
- Picks five and six are the only ones never to win a championship
Note: I have no records of the draft (other than my own picks) prior to 2001. So we’ll only be discussing the last 15 years.
FIRST PICK
2016 #1 PICK: DON VOZZOLA
The first pick in the draft. In our league, this means you were the worst of the worst the previous season. You finished last and thus earned the top pick the following year. I’ve preached for years that this pick rocks and the research only backs me up.
Last year, I bombed (I traded out of the top overall pick) and become just the third first pick to not make the playoffs. The other two were both Eric (he went 7-7 in 2002 and 1-12 in 2011). Twelve teams with the top pick made the playoffs, all of those teams finished with winning records, except Jeff in 2013. He made the post-season with a 6-7 record.
Six times they have earned double-digit wins in a season. No other pick has more than four. Three times, the #1 pick has gone from worst to first (David in 2007, Matt in 2009, Robio in 2010). In fact, the #1 pick has earned the top seed more than any other pick.
On top of that, the #1 pick has earned two scoring titles and most importantly, has earned two championships. In 2003, Burrier won it all after having the #1 pick (he got that pick because we got rid of three people who finished worse than him the year before). Anyhow, in 2009, Neatock became the first and only #1 pick to earned a triple crown: top seed, scoring title and championship mug. Overall, the #1 pick leads all picks in wins, going 128-94, a league best .577 winning percentage. So yeah, the next time you finish last, don’t forget, there is hope…next year…unless you’re a Vozzola…oh wait, Don’s picking first this year.
SECOND PICK
2016 #2 PICK: ROBIO MURRAY
If you have the second pick in the draft, you failed to qualify for the post-season the previous year, but just missed out of finishing dead last. While the first pick has dominated, the second pick has had its struggles. The second pick has made the post-season nine times in 15 seasons, going 105-108 overall (.498).
A second pick has won a mug, a scoring title and earned a top seed, but it all happened in one season, way back in 2001. That means no second pick has done any of those three things the past 14 years. Hell, a second pick hasn’t made it to the finals since that year and none have reached the semis since 2006. The previous two seasons, the second pick has missed the playoffs, both finishing 4-9.
THIRD PICK
2016 #3 PICK: MOLLY COOMER
Like picks one and two, pick three missed the playoffs the previous season, but while the first pick has had great success and the second pick has had some success, pick three has struggled, especially lately. Overall, the #3 pick has made the playoffs nine times in 15 seasons, but has missed the post-season in three of the last six years.
Overall, the #3 pick has the second lowest winning total (104 wins to 111 loses), producing a .484 winning percentage. They have produced three scoring champs: Colby in 2004, Griff in 2008 and Molly in 2011. Molly also was the league’s top seed that year, becoming only the three pick to finish the regular season first.
The #3 pick has made it to the title game three times. In fact, they went to the championship game three straight years from 2007-2009. In 2007, Neatock won it all as the #3 pick. The following two seasons, myself and Griff reached that final game, but lost.
FOURTH PICK
2016 #4 PICK: RICH CALDERON
If you’re the fourth pick in the draft, it means you just missed the playoffs the previous season. Like picks two and three, the #4 pick has reached the playoffs nine times in 15 seasons, doing it six straight seasons from 2002-2007. However, lately the four pick has had more trouble reaching the post, doing it just three times in the last seven seasons.
Overall, the fourth pick is 110-108 (.505 winning percentage), one of just five picks with an overall winning record, despite the fact they’ve only produced six winning seasons in 15 years. Also, they have never earned a top seed or brought home a scoring title. Yet, four times the #4 pick has reached the finals (which is tied for the most). Twice they lost: Calderon in 2007 and Matt in 2014. Twice they won: Bob in 2004 and myself in 2012.
FIFTH PICK
2016 #5 PICK: JEFF GREENBLATT
If you’re the fifth pick in the draft, it means you made the post-season the previous year, but you were the worst team based on seeding to lose in the quarterfinals. Sadly, that’s the good news. The bad news is, the fifth pick has been the worst of the bunch.
The #5 pick has made the playoffs in only seven of the last 15 years, reaching the post-season two years in a row just once (2005-2006). They’ve produced winning seasons just five times and managed to pull off just one double-digit win regular season (Molly won ten games in 2006). The #5 pick has never earned a top seed, producing just one scoring crown (Again, Molly in 2006). Overall, pick five is just 95-119 (.444).
Ironically though, the #5 pick has done well in the post-season on the few occasions it got there. In fact, pick five is a solid 5-2 in the quarterfinals and has reached the title game three times (Griff in 2003, Colby in 2005 and Burrier in 2011). Sadly though, those three combined to go 0-3 for the mug.
SIXTH PICK
2016 #6 PICK: RICHARD BURRIER
The six pick made the playoffs the previous season, but was knocked out in the quarterfinals and was the second worst team to do so. As you’ll see, if you keep reading, picks six through nine have all had about the same success. The #6 pick has gone 108-105, with a .507 winning percentage (third best) over the last 15 seasons and has made the playoffs a solid twelve times. In fact, the six pick has the longest active post-season streak, getting an invite to the show eight straight years, after missing it four out of the first seven seasons (producing three 4-win seasons in that time frame).
Yet, despite all the recent success, the 6-seed has produced just one top seed (Griff in 2012) and no scoring titles. They are just 3-8 in the quarterfinals and is the only pick to never reach the title game.
SEVENTH PICK
2016 #7 PICK: ROB MASTERSON
If you have earned the seventh pick in the draft, it means you were probably a decent team that got upset in the quarterfinals. The #7 pick has made it to the playoffs twelve times in 15 seasons, going 110-109 overall. The 110 victories is tied for third most among all the picks. They’ve made the post-season five straight years, although they’ve produced just two winning seasons. In fact, the pick has just three winning seasons since 2006.
Pick number seven has earned just one top seed (Don in 2007) and never brought home a scoring title. They’ve gone just 5-7 in the quarterfinals, but have had some success after that. Three times the #7 seed reached the finals. David lost his battle for the mug in 2001, but I won it all the following season and Calderon did as well in 2013.
EIGHTH PICK
2016 #8 PICK: ERIC VOZZOLA
If you owned the eighth pick, that means you were coming off a year where you were a playoff team, but ended up being the best team to lose in the quarterfinals; a good chance you were a top three seed, who got upset. Yet, the following year, you had what I would call…modest success.
Overall, the 8th pick went 110-109 (.502 winning percentage), having crashed the post-season 11 times in 15 years, including the last five, although the pick has managed just one double-digit winning season (Molly in 2008). Only one team, me in 2003, earned both a top seed and scoring title in 2003 (although I lost in the quarters). In fact, the #8 pick is just 5-6 in the quarterfinals. Yet, four teams did reach the title game, including two out of the last three seasons. Don won both his championships in 2006 and 2008 as the 8th pick. In 2013, Griff made it to the title game and lost, while Colby did the same two years later.
NINTH PICK
2016 #9 PICK: MATT NEATOCK
Okay folks, now we’ve reached the previous season’s semifinals losers. While the ninth pick has matched picks 6-8 in wins, 110-108 overall, they haven’t had the same success reaching the post-season, receiving a playoff invite only nine times in 15 years. During one eight-year period between 2006-2013, they missed the post-season five times and produced one of the two 1-12 teams (David in 2006).
Prior to 2013, the #8 pick had one top seed (Molly in 2002) and one scoring title (Calderon in 2010), reaching one title game (again, Molly in 2002). Yet, in the last two seasons, we’ve witnessed great success. In fact, the last two league champions have come from the 9th pick. In 2014, Bob earned the top seed, scoring title and championship mug after picking ninth and then Griff followed suit last year.
TENTH PICK
2016 #10 PICK: BOB CASTRONE
Okay, if you own the 10th pick in the draft, it means you were the better of the two teams who lost in last year’s semifinals. It also means this season could be a bumpy ride. Back in the day though, picking tenth was a good thing. Seven of the first eight returned to the post-season and four of those seven went back to the semifinals. However, lately the 10th pick has struggled, failing to reach the post-season in five of the last seven years.
Overall, this pick is 100-117. Their .461 winning percentage is the second lowest (behind only pick five). The #10 pick has never earned a top seed or a scoring title, one of only two picks to fail to do that (pick four is the other) and only two #10 picks have reached the title game. I did it back in 2006, losing to Don in the championship game. Back in 2010, Bob became the only 10th pick to win a championship, when he defeated me.
ELEVENTH PICK
2016 #11 PICK: COLBY HALL
If you earned the second-to-last pick in the odd rounds, that means you were the league’s runner-up the previous season. Yet, being runner-up has not been a good thing (unless your name is Griff). Let me explain.
Despite not having a terrible overall record, going 105-108, only seven teams (out of 15) that lost in the title game one year, managed to make it back to the playoffs the previous season. Four of those seven were Griff (2004, 2005, 2010 and 2014). That means only three of the 11 other ‘non-Griff’ teams made it to the playoffs.
Only two have ever reached the title game again, Griff was a repeat championship game loser back in 2004, but he returned again in 2005 to win it all. Lately, the #10 seed has shown some success. They’ve made it to the post-season in three of the last four years, advancing to the semis all three times after a six-year stretch without.
TWELFTH PICK
2016 #12 PICK: GRIFF COOMER
This one is simple…if you have the twelfth pick, it means you won it all the previous year and if you were that good the year before, it’s shouldn’t be surprising that you’re that good again the next season. The person with the last pick in round one has made it back to the post-season more than any other pick; 13 out of 15 years. The only two who failed to reach the playoffs after earning a mug was Bob in 2005 and Matt in 2008. Both won just three games and finished last.
Overall, the 12th pick is 116-102 the following season, second only to the #1 pick. Twice the defending champ has come back to earn the top seed; me in 2013 and Bob last year. In fact, both Bob and I doubled dip, earning that top seed and bringing home the scoring crown. In fact, four times the #12 pick has won the scoring title. The other two were Don in 2007 and Justin Acerno in 2002 (although he technically wasn’t a defending champ. That year we had the rookies draft last).
However, despite all that regular season success, defending champs have not translated that success in the post-season. They are just 5-8 in the quarterfinals and 1-4 in the semifinals. Since 2001, Bob is the only defending champ to make it back to the title game and win it all (although technically it has happened twice. I did it back in 2000).
PICK-BY-PICK RESULTS
Picks one through six.
| YEAR | PICK 1 | PICK 2 | PICK 3 | PICK 4 | PICK 5 | PICK 6 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Anne | 10-5 | Jason* | 14-3 | Eric | 5-9 | Don | 5-9 | Matt W | 9-7 | Jim | 7-8 |
| 2002 | Eric | 7-7 | Don | 8-7 | Griff | 9-7 | Rick | 8-7 | Brian | 3-11 | Jim | 4-10 |
| 2003 | Rich B* | 11-6 | Eric | 6-8 | David | 8-7 | Rob M | 8-8 | Griff | 10-7 | Don | 4-10 |
| 2004 | Don | 7-8 | Eric | 5-9 | Colby | 6-9 | Bob* | 13-4 | Matt | 5-9 | David | 7-9 |
| 2005 | Matt | 8-6 | Robio | 7-8 | Eric | 6-7 | Molly | 7-7 | Colby | 8-8 | Rob M | 5-8 |
| 2006 | Bob | 9-6 | Rob M | 8-7 | Eric | 3-10 | Colby | 9-5 | Molly | 10-4 | Rich B | 10-4 |
| 2007 | David | 12-3 | Eric | 8-6 | Matt* | 10-6 | Rich C | 8-8 | Griff | 4-9 | Colby | 4-9 |
| 2008 | Colby | 8-7 | Griff | 4-9 | Robio | 9-7 | Rob M | 4-9 | Rich B | 6-7 | Molly | 11-4 |
| 2009 | Matt* | 13-3 | Rob M | 7-7 | Grif | 10-6 | Rich B | 4-9 | Eric | 6-8 | Jeff | 8-6 |
| 2010 | Robio | 14-2 | Rich B | 5-9 | Molly | 3-10 | Colby | 9-6 | Eric | 2-11 | Don | 7-8 |
| 2011 | Eric | 1-12 | Rob M | 9-5 | Molly | 10-4 | Jeff | 6-7 | Rich B | 9-7 | Griff | 9-5 |
| 2012 | Eric | 11-5 | Rich C | 10-4 | Jeff | 2-11 | Robio* | 10-6 | Matt | 6-7 | Griff | 10-4 |
| 2013 | Jeff | 6-8 | Don | 4-9 | Colby | 8-6 | Matt | 6-7 | Rob M | 9-6 | Molly | 7-7 |
| 2014 | Rich B | 8-6 | Eric | 4-9 | Don | 6-7 | Matt | 10-6 | Jeff | 3-10 | Rob M | 7-7- |
| 2015 | Robio | 3-10 | Jeff | 6-8 | Eric | 9-5 | Don | 3-10 | Rich C | 5-8 | Rob M | 8-6 |
| TOTAL | 128-94 | 105-108 | 104-111 | 110-108 | 95-119 | 108-105 | ||||||
Picks seven through twelve
| YEAR | PICK 7 | PICK 8 | PICK 9 | PICK 10 | PICK 11 | PICK 12 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | David | 9-8 | Justin | 4-10 | Brian | 7-8 | Rick | 6-9 | Griff | 5-9 | Robio | 10-6 |
| 2002 | Robio* | 11-6 | David | 7-8 | Molly | 12-5 | Rob M | 8-8 | Rich B | 6-8 | Justin | 8-7 |
| 2003 | Molly | 9-6 | Robio | 9-6 | Bob | 6-8 | Rich C | 7-9 | Jeff | 6-8 | Matt | 7-8 |
| 2004 | Molly | 6-8 | Robio | 5-9 | Rich C | 10-6 | Rob M | 6-9 | Griff | 12-5 | Rich B | 9-6 |
| 2005 | Don | 9-5 | Rich B | 8-6 | David | 7-8 | Rich C | 6-7 | Griff* | 11-5 | Bob | 3-10 |
| 2006 | Matt | 3-10 | Don* | 10-6 | David | 1-12 | Robio | 9-7 | Rich C | 6-7 | Griff | 7-7 |
| 2007 | Rich B | 6-8 | Molly | 6-8 | Rob M | 5-8 | Bob | 9-6 | Robio | 5-8 | Don | 8-6 |
| 2008 | Eric | 6-8 | Don* | 9-7 | Bob | 9-5 | David | 7-7 | Rich C | 9-5 | Matt | 3-10 |
| 2009 | Bob | 9-6 | Rich C | 8-7 | Colby | 6-7 | Molly | 5-8 | Robio | 2-11 | Don | 7-7 |
| 2010 | Rob M | 2-11 | Jeff | 4-9 | Rich C | 9-5 | Bob* | 12-4 | Griff | 9-5 | Matt | 9-5 |
| 2011 | Matt | 6-8 | Rich C | 5-8 | Don | 7-8 | Colby | 8-7 | Robio | 6-7 | Bob* | 9-7 |
| 2012 | Rob M | 7-7 | Molly | 7-7 | Don | 4-10 | Colby | 4-9 | Rich B | 7-8 | Bob | 7-8 |
| 2013 | Rich C* | 13-3 | Griff | 9-7 | Rich B | 2-11 | Bob | 6-8 | Eric | 4-9 | Robio | 11-4 |
| 2014 | Molly | 8-7 | Colby | 9-5 | Bob* | 13-3 | Robio | 3-10 | Griff | 8-7 | Rich C | 6-8 |
| 2015 | Rich B | 6-8 | Colby | 8-8 | Griff* | 12-4 | Molly | 4-9 | Matt | 9-6 | Bob | 12-3 |
| TOTAL | 110-109 | 108-111 | 110-108 | 100-117 | 105-108 | 116-102 | ||||||