#1 Two Headed Russian Machine vs #8 This is the Year

2021 RECORD

Rob M: 10-4
Eric: 6-8

2021 SCORING

Rob M: 1453 PPG (3rd)
Eric: 1,358 (8th)

2021 BREAKDOWN

Rob M: 94-60 (8-6 vs Colby)
Eric: 69-85

CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD

ROB M – Overall, Masterson is just 5-14 in the postseason, often struggling to escape the first round. He’s just 5-9 in the quarterfinals, once going 12 years with only one quarterfinal victory. Worse yet, he’s 0-5 in the semifinals, remaining the only veteran player to never reach the finals. 

ERIC – While Rob’s playoff history is bad, Eric’s sorta worse. His .231 winning percentage in the postseason is the worst among veteran (non-Mike) teams. He’s won just three playoff games in 21 years, with an overall record of 3-10. He’s just 2-8 in the quarters and has just one playoff win since 2013. However, unlike Masterson, he has reached the finals. In fact, two of his three career postseason wins came in the 2012 playoffs, where he fell to me in the finals.  

PLAYOFF HISTORY BY SEEDS

1-SEED IN POST
The top overall seed has a seed best .640 winning percentage, going 32-18 overall. They’ve reached the finals a record 10 times, but have only gone 4-6 once there. Previous #1 seeds to win it all are Robio ‘99, Jason ‘01, Matt ‘09 and Bob ‘14. The 1-seed has lost their last three trips to the finals. 

8-SEED IN POST
The 8-seed is just 5-23 in our postseason (.148 winning percentage) and has never reached the finals once, going 0-4 in the semifinals. 

#1 VS #8 IN QUARTERFINALS
The top seed is a solid 18-4 against the 8-seed in the quarterfinals. In fact, the 1-seed has won eight straight dating back to 2013. The only times an 8-seed has beaten a 1 seed were: Calderon over Robio in 2003, David over Don in 2005, Masterson over Burrier in 2006 and Burrier over Griff in 2012. 

ROB M vs ERIC | THIS SEASON
Masterson actually earned his first win of the year against Eric way back in week four. That week, Eric got 784 from his two Chiefs, but only 120 from Sanders and Lamb, while no other player cracked 200. Meanwhile, 0-3 Rob was without the first overall pick (CMC), but got 434 from Prescott, 288 from Taylor, while every player other than his kicker scored at least 140, helping Masterson to a 1,714-1,425 win. 

ROB M vs ERIC | CAREER
Masterson leads the all-time series, 14-10. Rob has won four out of the last five and 12 out of the 17 games, after Eric took five of their first seven meetings. 

ROB M vs ERIC | POSTSEASON
Despite 41 years of combined experience in this league, these two have faced off just once in the playoffs. Back in 2012, Eric was a three-seed scoring champ, while Rob was a red hot 6-seed. After starting the year 1-5, Rob won six of his final seven games, including a week nine win over Eric. Yet, when it mattered the most, Eric came out on top, beating Rob in the quarterfinals, 1,649-1,269. 

Two Decades in the Making | The Rob Masterson Story
Five weeks in and Masterson deserved to panic. He was 1-4, having lost 16 of his last 20 games. The basement was looking like a permanent home, especially with McCaffrey, his top pick, hurt, AJ Brown down and Cooper looking inconsistent as ever. With Jeff and Derrick Henry up in week six, Rob was on the verge of exploring dump trades. Yet, that week, something amazing happened. While Henry did score 492, Rob was able to overcome it because Jonathan Taylor, a second round keeper, managed to keep pace, scoring 436 points. Along with Prescott, Rob pulled off the upset over 4-1 Jeff. The win jump started a streak that just kept streaking. 

Behind his league MVP (Taylor), Rob continued to roll RB2s into his lineup, making good decisions at wideout and he kept on winning. In week 10, he beat Bob by 30, with both teams topping 1,600. He crushed both Richs and then later eliminated Matt from a shot at the top seed by a single point; in a game where they both topped 1,500. In week 14, he had a chance to do something he had never done…finish in first. And like so many former top seeds, he caught a break, when my starting QB left the game after four snaps. Rob only scored 1,114, but it was enough to stretch his winning streak to nine, earning him his first ever top seed. 

Too Hot to Handle, Too Cold to Hold | The Eric Vozzola Story
Thanks to a miracle of incompetence by Michael, Eric sneaked into the playoffs by winning a points tiebreaker by just 19 points; the closest tiebreaker margin in history. Yet, to be in his position, plenty had to go his way, while shit had to also go south. For Eric, that was his season in a nutshell. No team was more inconsistent than this squad. This is a team that could lose three straight, but then score 1,908 and 1,789 points in back-to-back weeks, but then average 996 PPG in its next three. Then follow that up with 1,972 points. Then follow that up with a 846-point effort. You figure this shit out.

What we do know is, Eric, who has avoided running backs in round one, like they were the plague, grabbed Mahomes, who has failed to live up to the hype. He waited on backs, but that failed to pay off, as Edwards-Helaire and Miles Sanders have either sucked or have been hurt. Instead, Eric has found success with his hands. With Chase, Lamb and Johnson, he has three WR1s on his roster, to go along with Mark Andrews, the league’s top back. Yet, when you rely on hands to supply most of your points, you’re going to get uneven production. The backfield, despite RB’s flaws, are where the money gets cashed. 

#2 Najee Myself & I vs #7 Tunderpants

2021 RECORD

Bob: 9-5
Rich B: 6-8

2021 SCORING

Bob: 1,599 PPG (1st)
Rich B: 1,435 (5th)

2021 BREAKDOWN

Bob: 102-45 (9-5 vs Burrier)
Rich B: 76-78

CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD

BOB – One of three people, yet the only non-original member, to have 20 career postseason wins. Overall, Bob is 20-12. His .625 winning percentage is third best, while his 1,455 points per game is also third best. He’s a solid 11-5 in the quarterfinals and 5-6 in the semifinals. His five trips to the finals is tied for second most, as are his four championships. If you’re looking for something to nag about, how about this? Bob’s last title was 2014 and he has gone three seasons without a single playoff win. 

RICH B – Burrier has a championship from 2003 and a title game run in 2011, but that’s about it. His .368 winning percentage is better than only Masterson, Eric and Michael. He’s just 7-12 during his two decades in this league and five of those wins came in that 2003 championship and 2011 finals run. In 20 years, he’s won a playoff game in just four seasons. His 1,270 points per game in the playoffs is also the lowest in the league.  

PLAYOFF HISTORY BY SEEDS

2-SEED IN POST
The two-seed has produced a solid .619 winning percentage, going 26-16 overall. While it has struggled to escape the quarterfinals, it has dominated once it gets past that first weekend. The two-seed is an amazing 8-2 in the semifinals and even better in the finals, where they have gone 7-1. Their seven championships is a league best. They are Robio ‘00, Bob ‘04, Calderon ‘13, Griff ‘15, Calderon again ‘16, Matt ‘17 and Robio ‘19. 

7-SEED IN POST
For being the second-to-last team to fit into the playoffs, the seven-seed has done pretty well. Overall, they are 23-19, having reached 12 semifinals, where they have won more than they lost (7-5). In the finals, the 7-seed has won four championships: Don in both ‘06 and ‘08, Bob in ‘11 and Matt in ‘18. 

#2 VS #7 IN QUARTERFINALS
Surprisingly, the 7-seed continues to have more quarterfinals victories over the 2-seed, sitting at 12-10 overall, including last year’s Robio over Eric upset. Prior to that though, the two-seed had won five of seven dating back to 2013. 

BOB vs RICH B | THIS SEASON
Castrone took care of business against Burrier back in week nine, 1,419-1,123. In that game, Bob was without Hopkins and Aaron Jones got hurt, but he got 216 from Harris, 232 from Kittle and a solid 265 from the Patriots D. Rich was trying to win without Brady, but only got 80 points from Matt Jones. Kamara scored 268, but Henderson got hurt, finishing with just 116 points. 

BOB vs RICH B | CAREER
Like he does against so many others, Bob has dominated Rich, winning 82% of their games. Overall, he is 18-7 against Burrier. He has won seven straight against Rich, who last beat Bob in week nine of the 2016 season. 

BOB vs RICH B | POSTSEASON
These two have faced off four times in the postseason, all since 2012 and Burrier probably would like to avoid this fifth meeting. Bob is undefeated in those four games, beating Rich first in the 2011 finals, then three times in four years in the quarterfinals starting in 2014. All three times, Bob was the top seed, while Rich was the 8-seed. 

The Empire Strikes Back | The Bob Castrone Story
Greatest team ever? Obviously it’s too soon to say, but clearly Bob had had enough of losing in the quarterfinals, because how else do you explain one of the best “middle-of-the draft” drafts ever. Just look it over. When he was reaching for players to help him win this year, he often grabbed gold. 

He threw caution in the wind and took a rookie back in round one. All Harris did was produce a 2nd-team All-Robio award. In round two, Hopkins hasn’t been healthy and has been on Bob’s bench most of the season. He’s done for the fantasy season. In round three, Kittle, when playing, has played great. D. Harris in four has been decent enough, currently rotating with Aaron Jones. In round five, Kupp has been fantastic. In six, he took Beckham, who was a bust, but has been solid in LA, until he just got COVID. In round seven, he grabbed Dobbins for next year. We’ll see how this plays out, although I don’t think he keeps him. In round 8, Bob again went to the future with Trevor Lawrence, but he’s not keeping him. In round nine, Bob made up for it by taking Matt Stafford, who has been a top-five QB all season long. Add in the Patriots D and Bob has rolled with his starters nearly the entire season, rotating in and out only when someone was hurt or on a bye. The exception is RB2, where he plays Jones/D. Harris.

So far, this crew has produced the second most points scored in a regular season history (1,599) and gave Bob nine wins. Of his four defeats, three were close. He lost to Michael in week four by 100 points. He lost to Rob in week 8 by just 30 points. Matt beat him in week 11 by only 88 points. Only Jeff in week 12 managed to beat him by more than 100 (he won by 373 when Bob only scored 1,079. That was the worst week by Najee and Kittle, who combined for just 100 points. 

Rogue One | The Richard Burrier Story
Behind Brady, Henderson, Kamara and Hill, Rich had a foursome nearly as good as anyone…or at least it seemed at times. He beat Masterson in one of the highest scoring games ever, 2,075-1,770. Yet, then he dropped three straight. Yet, in weeks 4-5-6, he scored over 1,700 in three straight, yet lost one. Still, at 4-4, he looked like an unlucky playoff team. Yet, things went south in week nine. Hill was inconsistent, Brady wasn’t throwing a ton of TDs, while both Henderson and Kamara struggled to stay on the field. Rich would drop four straight, averaging only 1,174 points per game. At 4-8, he looked toast, despite still being fourth in scoring. Yet, in week 13, he caught a break named Robio, who scored 899. That got Rich back in hunt. In week 14, he basically played a playoff game against Griff; the winner in, the loser out. Well, like the week before, Rich’s foe failed to top 1,000 and just like that Burrier, with Kamara back in the lineup, is looking like a sneaky 7-seed.  

#3 Welcome to Florida vs #6 Football?

2021 RECORD

Robio: 9-5
Jeff: 7-7

2021 SCORING

Robio: 1,361 PPG (7th)
Jeff: 1,386 (6th)

2021 BREAKDOWN

Robio: 73-81 (7-7 vs Jeff)
Jeff: 83-71

CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD

ROBIO – Nobody has had more success in the playoffs than me. My .750 winning percentage is the league best, having gone 27-9 overall. I’ve averaged 1,537 points per game in the postseason, which is also a league best. Best yet, I’m nearly unstoppable in the quarterfinals, having gone 13-1 in my career. The only time I’ve lost in the quarterfinals was way back in 2003 against 8-seed Calderon. In the semifinals, I’m a solid 9-4 and my nine trips to the finals, including last year, are a league high, as are my five career championships (1999, 2000, 2002, 2012, 2019). 

JEFF – Thanks to earning his first championship last year, Jeff got over the postseason hump. He went from having a 2-5 record to a 6-5 record, averaging a solid 1,366 points per game in the process. He’s a decent 3-3 in the quarterfinals, going 2-1 in the semifinals. By winning it all last season, he leaves Colby, Masterson, Eric and Michael as the only league members to not win a title. 

PLAYOFF HISTORY BY SEEDS

3-SEED IN POST
Being a three-seed has not been a blessing. Overall, they’re just 20-21 in the playoffs, although they are a decent 7-4 in the semifinals. Their seven trips to the finals are third best among seeds, although they’ve produced just two championships. Both were a long time ago. They were Robio ‘02 and Burrier ‘03. 

6-SEED IN POST
The six-seed is the second worst seed, just ahead of the 8-seed. Overall, they’ve won just 38% of their games, producing a 13-21 record. While they have had some success advancing to the semifinals, they are just 2-9 once there. They’ve reached the finals twice, but a six seed has never won a championship. 

#3 VS #6 IN QUARTERFINALS

These two seeds are currently tied in the quarterfinals, with each winning 11 times, but the six-seed has dominated lately. In fact, the six-seed has won seven straight meetings, dating back to 2015. The last six 3-seeds to lose were Eric, Don, Calderon, Colby, Don and Michael. 

ROBIO vs JEFF | THIS SEASON
Jeff and I faced off in week nine. He was without both Henry and Mitchell, while I was full staff. For me, I rode Lamar and Mixon. Jackson had a season high 506 points, while Mixon delivered 340 points. Jeff got a great outing from Herbert, who scored 464, while Patterson scored 272 and Booker chipped in 244, but McNichols was no Henry and scored only 70. I won 1,634-1,477. Of course, I’ve won just one game since that victory. 

ROBIO vs JEFF | CAREER
Jeff has had surprising success against me, having won more than he’s lost. He’s 10-8 against me overall, as Greenblatt had won five of six before this season. 

ROBIO vs JEFF | POSTSEASON
Jeff and I have met three times in the postseason. I beat him back in the 2013 quarterfinals. I was the top seed, he was the 8-seed. One of us showed up; one of us didn’t. Jeff scored just 871 and I advanced to the semifinals. In 2016, Jeff was the top seed and the game was the semifinals. I scored just under 1,500 in both the quarterfinals and semifinals. In the quarters it was enough to upset 3-seed Don. It wasn’t enough to beat Jeff, who won 1,816-1,498. Then there was last year. Jeff was the 5-seed, I was the 7-seed and defending champ. We both shocked the world to reach the finals. Based on our history, I had all the numbers on my side. Yet, history has nothing to do with results. Jeff had the better team. I kept it close, but I lost the title by 99 points, 1,554-1,455. 

Fun fact: Jeff and Don are the only people in league history to have two postseason wins against me. 

Fortunate Son | The Robio Murray Story
I won eight straight games this year and spent most of the season in first place. Based on the preseason predictions, that was a massive success. It was also a massive overachievement. Despite having two of the best backs in football, my team was never good enough to be considered an elite. It helped that my opponents scored the least amount of points this season. How bad were they? Not a single opponent of mine scored over 1,500. While I did that five times, I often struggled to score, as Lamar couldn’t produce through the air and my wideouts for most of the year were borderline tragic. It all caught up to me at the end. After beating Jeff in week nine, I not only lost four of my last five, missing out on first place, but I failed to hit 1,000 three times. 

Regarding Henry | The Jeff Greenblatt Story
For Jeff, there were two seasons in his one season. There was pre-DH and post-DH. In pre-DH, Greenblatt had the league’s top player, Derrick Henry, dominating the league like no other. In the five games that Henry started and completed, Jeff went 4-1 and averaged 1,572 points. Then in week six, Henry was lost for the season and Jeff’s season went south. He has gone 3-6 without Henry, averaging only 1,282 points per game, failing to break 1,500 once. Of course, it’s not only Henry’s fault. Jeff lost his first-round pick (Ridley) to a mental breakdown and has struggled to keep Gibson, Mitchell and McLaurin healthy. His saving grace has been Herbert and the league’s top free agent pick up, Patterson. Both earned All-Robio awards. 

#4 Colby Diggs My Chubb vs #5 The Dick-Taters

2021 RECORD

Matt: 8-6
Rich C: 7-7

2021 SCORING

Matt: 1,480 PPG (2nd)
Rich C: 1,450 (4th)

2021 BREAKDOWN

Matt: 93-61 (6-8 vs Jeff)
Rich C: 89-65

CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD

MATT – At 16-7, with a .696 winning percentage, Matt is the second most accomplished team to ever play in our postseason. The winning percentage is the league’s second best and his 1,517 points per game is also second best. He’s decent in the quarterfinals, going 7-4, but better once he advances. He’s 5-2 in the semifinals and a solid 4-1 in the finals. He’s twice won as a 7-seed and he remains the only person to beat Bob in the finals (as Bob is the only person to beat him in the finals). 

RICH C – While Matt has been good, Calderon has been no slouch himself in the playoffs. Rich is 15-11 in the postseason. He’s 8-5 in the quarterfinals, struggling at times as a high seed. He also has a winning record in the semifinals, going 5-3. He’s one of five people to reach the title game five times, winning it all twice (2013, 2016). 

PLAYOFF HISTORY BY SEEDS

4-SEED IN POST
The 4-seed has not been great in the playoffs, going just 14-20 (.412 winning percentage). They’ve reached the semifinals just six times, although won four of those to reach the finals, where they have won three of four. They were Griff ‘05, Bob ‘10, Robio ‘12. 

5-SEED IN POST
Overall, the 5-seed has won 25 of 45 playoff games, winning 56% of their games. They’ve done most of their damage in the quarterfinals (see below), which is why their 16 trips to the semifinals is second only to the top seed. However, they’re just 6-10 in the semifinals and 2-4 in the finals. The two championships: Matt ‘07, Jeff last year. 

#4 VS #5 IN QUARTERFINALS
In one of the stranger stats in this league, the 5-seed has dominated the 4-seed, winning 16 of their 22 games. The five-seed has managed to win seven of their last eight meetings. The only 4-seed to win in the quarterfinals since 2013 was Masterson over Bob in 2019. 

MATT vs RICH C | THIS SEASON
Of the eight playoff teams this year, these two are the only two that have faced off twice this season, including last week. Calderon swept Matt in the regular season. In week three, Rich escaped with a 33-point victory. He went three-wide and got 212 from Evans and 324 from Adams, while the Broncos DST put him over the top with 309. Matt kept pace with 326 from Hurts and 370 from Hunt, but Woods and Diggs combined for only 200 fantasy points, while only one skilled player (Hunt) scored a TD. 

Of course, Calderon would go on to lose his next six, so when he faced Matt again in week 14, the game meant more. Sure, he was already winning (four straight), but he needed a win over a big boy. And he got it. Rich crushed a struggling Matt, producing 1,957 points, a weekly high score. Rodgers (436) and Adams (362) lead the way. Neatock got 324 from Fournette, but his new starters failed, as Bridgewater managed only 228 at QB, while DeSean Jackson, yes, DeSean, scored just 38 points. 

MATT vs RICH C | CAREER
These two have faced off 28 times and Rich has won 16 of those 28 matchups. In fact, he’s won five straight regular season games against Neatock. Note…I said regular season. 

MATT vs RICH C | POSTSEASON
Matt and Rich have faced off a total of four times in the playoffs. However, while Rich has taken care of business in the regular season, Matt has taken it more often to Rich in the postseason. 

It started way back in 2007, when the two faced off in the finals. Rich was a 7-seed, Matt was a 5-seed, but Matt’s team was better than their seeding. They were also better than Rich’s squad. Matt won his first title with a 1,444-811 win over Calderon. Two years later, they faced off in the semifinals. Again, Rich’s team couldn’t crack 900 and Matt crushed him, 1,950-878. It remains the second largest ass-kicking in postseason history. Matt would go on to win his second title. 

In 2018, Calderon was ready to end his losing ways to Matt in the postseason. That year, he was a highly regarded five-seed, while Matt was a little-thought-of seven-seed. Rich dominated Masterson and Don, cruising into the finals. Matt escaped with two close wins over Bob and Marc. Yet, Neatock remained a hump Rich couldn’t get over, as Matt won his fourth career title and second over Calderon by just 53 points, 1,631-1,578. 

The following season though. Rich finally got that Matt-sized monkey off his back. The 1-seed Rich easily crushed 6-seed Matt in the semifinals, 1,767-1,315. 

Reversal of Fortune | The Matt Neatock Story
Matt began his 2021 campaign well, winning two of three, although failing to top 1,400 in either win. Yet, then we took notice. Hurts was proving to be a solid fantasy QB, while Fournette looked like the Leo of old, even though Matt often ran with his two Browns with solid success. He would score two more wins over the next three weeks, scoring over 1,500 in all three. After a rough week 7, he rebounded by scoring over 1,500 in weeks 9, 10 and 11. That was six 1,500 games in seven weeks. Matt was 8-3 and in first place, chasing Bob for the scoring crown. Everything was coming up Matt. Yet, Woods got hurt, as did Hurts and the winning stopped. He lost his chance for the top seed when he fell to back-to-back Robs and then allowed Calderon into the elite conversation with a third straight defeat to end the season. In three short weeks, Matt went from first to fourth. 

The Comeback Kid | The Rich Calderon Story
I’m handing Masterson the award for “best second half comeback,” as he turned a 1-4 start into a 9-0, top seed finish. However, what Calderon did was nearly as impressive. Nine weeks in, Calderon was dead in the water. He was in last place at 2-7, having lost six straight. In week nine, he scored just 779 points, a weekly low score (his first in years). It was time to consider dump trades. Fortunately for him, the hard part was over and he kept chugging along. 

He would face a struggling Burrier and he’d win. In week 12, another struggling team (Eric), another win, although this time Rich scored a solid 1,815. In week 12, it was struggling Griff and a third straight Calderon victory. With two weeks left, it was time to shine, as Rich had two playoff teams on deck, Mike and Matt. Well, it didn’t really matter who he was facing. He dominated, scoring 1,721 and 1,926 points. He turned 2-7 into a playoff team and entered the postseason riding a five-game winning streak, having cracked 1,700 in three of his last four contests. If that’s not hot, I don’t know what is. 

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS 

QUARTERFINALS

#1 MASTERSON v #8 ERIC (-124)
Despite the fact Rob is the one seed, this is not the cakewalk that the seed may indicate it should be. Over their last six games, these two have split in breakdown. In fact, CBS has Eric as not only the favorite, but the solid favorite. How did it come to this? 

Well, it helps that Eric has no decisions to make. Nothing says failure like making decisions in the postseason. Eric’s has been playing the same dudes pretty much since Edwards-Helaire came back. He’s got his three-wide and the league’s top tight end. Meanwhile, Rob has lots of decisions. Does he go with Williams or Hubbard? Does he sit Brown or Cooper? Fant is the starting tight end, but is he the best option between him, Higbee and Henry? Probably. 

To win, Rob needs his MVP to MVP this mother fucker. He’s scored over 300 in six of his last seven. This is no time to produce less. More importantly, Rob needs his Cowboys to wake up. Prescott has been bad lately and Cooper has paid the price. They face the Giants D, but they’ll be facing them in NY, where the weather could be a little chilly and a little snowy. 

Meanwhile, Eric will ride his twin Chiefs. Both Mahomes and Edwards-Helaire dominated the Raiders and this week they are on the road facing a Chargers team. The game matters. The last time these two faced the other LA team, they combined for 600 points, although the Chargers have been better against the pass. 

PREDICTION: ERIC | 1,438 – 1,326
I’m going with the upset, or based on CBS projections, I’m going with the favorite, which I’m sure will please Masterson, unless by picking against him, I’m actually hurting him. Never underestimate Rob’s ability to twist every word I write into a jinx on his squad. Instead of blaming me, I’d blame both Lamb (who will have the better day for Dallas) and Edwards-Helaire, who I project to have the best game of his season against a defense that is 28th against the run in fantasy. 

#2 BOB vs #7 BURRIER (+178)
Let’s be honest, this would be a massive upset if Burrier can bounce Bob. In many spots, Rich can not only keep up with Bob, but outproduce him. Brady vs Stafford is a wash. Kamara can certainly top Harris on any given week, while Hill has been known to play like Kupp. The issue is, with Henderson still questionable and Swift still out, Rich is struggling to field a capable flex. He also won’t be able to handle Bob at the tight end spot. Pitts is cute, but he’s no Kittle, who has turned unstoppable. 

There might be a time where I’ll predict Bob to fall, but this won’t be the week. Now his players do face some tough matchups, as Harris faces the #2 ranked run defense, while Jones faces the #8 run D. Kupp is facing the 8th rated pass defense against wideouts, but that stat doesn’t sound right, as his QB is facing the 20th ranked pass defense. None of this will matter.

PREDICTION: BOB | 1,684 – 1,428
I don’t think it will be a blowout, but without a healthy Henderson or Swift and Kamara facing the league’s second best defense against running backs, Rich won’t be able to overcome Bob’s pieces. 

#3 ROBIO vs JEFF (-6) 
In the battle of ugh, this game really has to happen, I potentially could be playing without Lamar Jackson, Austin Ekeler and Adam Thielen. Even if they do play, how good can they be at less than 100%? Lamar can’t pass, so he needs to run, which he won’t do with a bum ankle. I could use Ekeler to help minimize what Herbert can do, but if he’s not 100%, the Chargers have two other backs they are confident in. 

Meanwhile, Jeff will ride Herbert against one of the worst pass defenses in the league, while Patterson should find plenty of room to roam against the 49ers. Higgins has slowly become the top target in Cincy and while Foreman and Gibson aren’t going to deliver 300-point games, they won’t have to this week. 

PREDICTION: Jeff, 1,380 – 948
My only chance to win is if I get my two stud backs healthy and both topping 300 each. They’ve managed it in the past, but not lately. Without that, I simply don’t have the receivers or the tight end. If Lamar doesn’t play, forget about it. 

#4 MATT vs #5 RICH C (-124)
This is my favorite matchup of the week. It’s the only game that features two real contenders, although with three straight defeats, who knows how much contending Matt will actually do. 

As expected, Calderon is the favorite (in fact, three of the four lower seeds are the favorite this week). For Rich, his Packers face a tough foe, as the Ravens come to town. Now, no one is shutting down Rodgers/Adams, but if they can be kept in a little check, it would help Matt out. Meanwhile, Rich rolls with the new starter in LA (Michel), while Jacobs doesn’t have to worry about Drake any more. Still, Rich can’t rely on his backs to win this week. He’ll need solid 250+ efforts from both Adams and Evans and I expect a big performance from the Titans DST. 

For Matt, he still has a decision to make at QB. One has to assume a healthy Hurts gets the start over Bridgewater. Of course, no clue if he will be playing or not. Without him, then Matt needs to dominate at running back. Both Chubbs and Fournette can be that kind of back, although “held in check” has become Chubb’s middle name. If he can’t break loose against the Raiders poor run defense, Matt doesn’t deserve to win. 

PREDICTION: MATT, 1,512 – 1,480
Why am I picking Matt? I don’t even have a good answer. Nothing about this looks good. Fournette faces the top defense against running backs. In fact, that’s the theme of the week. Every player on Matt’s team faces a top-11 defense against their respected position. That’s not good. Yet, I can’t bring myself to put Calderon as the victor. I will say this, the winner of this game will reach the finals. 

LOOKING AHEAD…

SEMIFINALS

#2 BOB over #8 ERIC
Eight seeds can win in the quarterfinals. They can’t win in the semifinals. Bob will approach 2,000 and win by 800+ in the semifinals. 

#3 MATT over #6 JEFF
Greenblatt still won’t have Henry and it will matter this time around. Matt (or Calderon) advances with ease. 

FINALS

#2 Bob over #3 Matt
For the third time since 2014, these two will face off in the finals in the rubber match. A fully healthy Neatock will be able to put up a bunch of points, especially with Hurts in D.C., but Bob at full strength is just too much for anyone in this league. Bob wins his fifth career championship, tying me for the most in league history.