#4 BEMORTARBOARDED NEATOCK vs #7 THE GENIUS
Colby enters the title game with more wins, but Neatock has more points. Colby, the 4-seed entering the playoffs has won four straight and now sits at 11-5 on the year. It’s the most wins he’s ever had in one season. Meanwhile, Matt has won three straight and for the first time since week two, he’s at .500 (8-8). However, he has averaged 1,447 points per game, while Colby sits at 1,398 per contest.
In breakdown, Colby is 107-68-1, while Matt is slightly better at 111-65-0. However, in head-to-head in breakdown, Colby would have beaten Matt in nine of 16 meetings.
COLBY v MATT | THIS SEASON
Neatock fell to Colby back in week six, 1,511-1,317. Jalen Hurts had one of his worst games of the season, scoring just 236 points, while Chubb was held to 140. Leo Fournette led all of Matt’s scorers with 262. Meanwhile, Colby rode Josh Allen, who scored 422 points against his Chiefs, while McCaffrey added 316 points. Two of Colby’s current starters were on the bench that week: Etienne and Waddle.
COLBY v MATT | THE HISTORY
Colby leads the all-time series, 13-10. He won their first ever meeting back in 2004 with a weekly high score, 1,743-1,245.Colby would go on to win four of their first five matchups between 2004-2006. Matt wouldn’t produce a winning streak against Colby until 2017-2018, when he won three straight. However, Colby has taken three of the last four.
COLBY v MATT | THE PLAYOFFS
These two have faced off twice in the postseason, but it’s been awhile. They first met in the 2005 quarterfinals and then again in the 2010 quarterfinals. In both cases, Matt was the higher seed, but Colby walked away the winner. In 2005, 7-seed Colby beat 2-seed Matt, 1,222-1,060. In 2010, 6-seed Colby handed 3-seed Matt another defeat, 1,726-1,311.
THE TITLE GAME MATCHUPS
Shockingly, CBS is giving Matt almost no chance, as if he was Griff or something. Colby is currently a 75% favorite to win his first ever title. Call me crazy, by Neatock being a 438-point underdog seems low, but that’s because CBS can’t decide who will be the starting QB for Philly.
QUARTERBACK
EAGLES QB (MATT) vs JOSH ALLEN (COLBY)
At this time, we don’t know which Eagles quarterback is going to play. Hurts has been active in practice, but who knows if it’s just a smoke screen. Even if he plays, one has to wonder if Hurts will be 100% and do what he does best…run. For now though, I have Minshew starting and not dominating a solid Saints (top-10) pass defense.
Josh Allen’s days of pumping out weekly 400-pt games were early in the season. Now he’s more likely to score in the low 300’s, than the high 400’s. Still, he tends to come up big in big games and this contest against the Bengals matters for Buffalo. I think he tops 400 despite turnovers and he’ll do it by rushing for over 50 yards. I have Allen as the highest scoring arm this week.
FINAL POINTS
Allen 442 | Minshew 268
RUNNING BACK #1
NICK CHUBB (MATT) vs CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY (COLBY)
A lot will depend on if McCaffrey is healthy. Right now, he’s limited in practice. Assuming he’s ready to go, he’s got a great matchup against the Raiders, who are third worst when it comes to giving up stats to backs. CMC is coming off only his fourth sub-200 game this year, but the previous three times he did that he scored 256, 500 and 352 in the following game. I already have Colby’s QB as the top scoring arm this week and I also believe McCaffrey will be the top running back in week 17.
As for Chubb, he hasn’t sniffed 300 in five weeks and he’s looked terrible since Watson became the starter. He’s still getting plenty of touches (20+ in his last two), but he has no carriers near the end zone. Add in he’s facing the fourth toughest team against the run in fantasy and it’s hard to see a bounce back game.
FINAL POINTS
McCaffrey 366 | Chubb 184
RUNNING BACK #2
LEO FOURNETTE (MATT) vs TRAVIS ETIENNE (COLBY)
Matt brings Leo back into the starting lineup. He was handed back the keys to Tampa’s backfield last week and shined, scoring 324 points, thanks to 29 touches. Matt’s going to need a repeat performance. The Panthers run D isn’t a massive threat, so there should be room to run.
Meanwhile, Etienne should have a much easier time against the Texans D, who are the worst at giving up stats to running backs this year. Etienne has had back-to-back 200-point games, but he hasn’t scored in a long while. He should be able to rediscover the end zone against the Texans.
In the end, I’m going to give Fournette the slight edge. Both these guys can catch a lot of balls, but the Bucs rely more on Brady’s dump downs, so look for Leo to catch more balls than Etienne.
FINAL POINTS
Fournette 272 | Etienne 238
WIDE RECEIVER #1
AJ BROWN (MATT) vs JAYLEN WADDLE (COLBY)
After a bad month of football, Waddle has rebounded scoring 288 and 346 in his last two contests. He did all that with just three catches. However, I’m not sure averaging 38.0 and 28.6 yards per catch is a realistic goal for a third straight game. With Tua probably out, I expect the Fins passing game to take a hit against the Patriots and Waddle’s numbers will decrease.
As for Brown, it doesn’t really matter who is playing quarterback. He’ll get his. He has scored over 200 in his last four, which includes a 358-pt game and a 362-pt game. I expect Minshew to target him over 10 times against the Saints.
FINAL POINTS
Brown 254 | Waddle 164
WIDE RECEIVER #2
CHRIS GODWIN (MATT) vs AMARI COOPER (COLBY)
While Godwin has played better during the second half of the season, he’s not some stud. He’s broken 130 just once over the last month, as Brady continues to be unable to get the ball downfield. Having said that, the Panthers have been vulnerable against solid receivers (25th against receivers in fantasy).
For Colby, Davis is on the pine, while Amari Cooper gets the start. The Browns top receiver has been anything but a top receiver since Watson came back. In fact, he hasn’t sniffed 150 since week twelve. He seems too good not to have a breakout game in the works, but predicting that is like trying to predict which innocent comment I make will set off my daughter.
FINAL POINTS
Godwin 198 | Cooper 140
TIGHT END
EVAN ENGRAM (MATT) vs TAYSOM HILL (COLBY)
Both Colby and Matt make a switch at tight end for the title game. Engram scored 226 last week and has caught 31 balls in his last four games, getting 40 targets, which is a lot for a tight end. Fact is, the Jaguars passing game is solid.
Hill has been consistent the last three weeks; not as a tight end, but as a running QB. He has scored 164, 172 and 172 in his last three on 19 runs. One has to believe the Saints are going to throw the kitchen sink at the Eagles this week and the kitchen sink is Hill.
FINAL POINTS
Engram 188 | Hill 192
PLACE KICKER
MIKE BADGLEY (MATT) vs CAMERON DICKER (COLBY)
Let’s keep this simple. Badgley averages 94 points per game, while the Bears defense is fourth best against kickers, thus Badley fails to meet his season average, kicking more extra points than field goals. Dicker also averages 94 points per game, but the Raiders are the 9th worst against kickers.
FINAL POINTS
Badgley 90 | Dicker 110
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
CARDINALS (MATT) vs PATRIOTS (COLBY)
The Cardinals are facing the Falcons and the Patriots are taking on the Dolphins. One would think this would be a big advantage for the Cardinals, but based on stats, it’s not. The Dolphins offense is the 12th toughest, but the Falcons are actually 14th. Add in Tua probably being out and Colby might have a slight advantage here.
FINAL POINTS
Cardinals 94 | Patriots 122
AND THE FINAL PREDICTION IS…
COLBY WINS, 1,774 – 1,548
Mr. Hall’s two biggest stars, Allen and McCaffrey, do too much damage and prove too much to overcome. Colby, who joined the league in 2004, will earn his first ever championship.