The old days, mock drafts were easy. 90% of the first round picks were running backs, but those days are gone. Last year, only six backs were kept or drafted in round one. This season, if a trio of receivers went one-two-three, no one would be that surprised. Add in the fact that some of you make some pretty nutty decisions, mocking this shit is hard work. However, anything hard is worth doing, right?
ROUND ONE
#1 Don – Tyreek Hill (WR – Dolphins)
I got Don keeping a pair of running backs, led by Jonathan Taylor in round three and Robby Mostert much, much later. If he doesn’t have faith in Mostert, then Don could bring Bijan back, but I believe he won’t be able to pass up the home town hero, Tyreek Hill, who is coming off back-to-back 1,700-yard seasons.
#2 Richard B – Bijan Robinson (RB – Falcons)
I only have Burrier keeping Jahmyr Gibbs in round two, over Josh Jacobs, even though Jacobs is rated higher, but either way, look for Rich to secure a second back in Robinson. The Falcons back is coming off a 1,600-yard rookie campaign and this season he has a new coach and a capable quarterback.
#3 Bob – Derrick Henry (RB – Ravens)
I’m projecting that Castrone keeps Aiyuk in round five and Tony Pollard in round eight. Thus, he’s free to draft the best available player. Henry is 30 years old and coming off his “worst year” since 2018, but he’s still has juice in the tank and he should find much more running room in Baltimore.
#4 Rob M – Amon St. Brown (WR – Lions)
With Masterson keeping one of the best backs heading into 2024 (Breece Hall) and a second one oozing with potential (Achane), look for Masterson to go with a wideout. With both Jefferson and Lamb not available, Rob goes with a man who isn’t always mentioned with the big boys, but his stats are just as good as anyone’s, after the now 24-year-old delivered 119 catches last year.
#5 Eric – Ja’Marr Chase (WR – Bengals)
Vozzola is going to roll with Lamb in the second round and for now, let’s say Fields in round 12, so no one would blame him if he snags a back here. However, Eric hasn’t been afraid to ride with wideouts. Look for him to bring back Chase. He’s coming off an off-year, but with a healthy Burrow, the Bengals wideout should return to elite status.
#6 Robio – Josh Jacobs (RB – Packers)
I’m most likely keeping Deebo and Burrow, thus it would be hard for me to pass up a good back. Jacobs didn’t have a great 2023, but he has a new home in Green Bay, with a coach who gets creative in the running game.
#7 Rich C – Saquon Barkley (RB – Eagles) KEEPER
With his move to Philly, Barkley is now projected to be the best back not named McCaffrey. He’s expected to averaged 247 points per game, after averaging just 207 and 213 the past two seasons.
#8 Griff – Justin Jefferson (WR – Vikings) KEEPER
Jefferson should be healthy in 2024, but some of the shine is gone as the Vikings parted ways with Cousins. The Vikings starting QB is going to be either J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold. That doesn’t sound fun. Still, Jefferson remains one of the best in the game and he should still collect plenty of catches.
#9 Matt – A.J. Brown (WR – Eagles)
Assuming Matt keeps Jalen Hurts and Sam LaPorta, it’s hard to imagine the king of homer picks not taking a homer pick in round one. A.J. Brown was a big reason Colby delivered a second straight title. He’s gone for over 1,400 yards in back-to-back seasons, scoring a solid 18 touchdowns.
#10 Jeff – Isiah Pacheco (RB – Chiefs)
This is what happens when nine of the top 12 running backs are going to be kept. For Jeff, Pacheco isn’t sexy. In two seasons, he has yet to rush for 1,000 yards. However, the Chiefs have jettison a ton of his backfield competition, so the third-year back should be more involved in the high powered offense. He should fit nicely along side Greenblatt’s keepers, James Cook and Luka Nacua. Both those dudes have All-Robio potential.
#11 Michael – Garrett Wilson (WR – Jets)
If you drafted Wilson last year, your season probably didn’t go well. When Rodgers went down, so did any chance of Wilson being a #1 wide receiver. Well, the goods are still there and Rodgers should be 100%. If the NFL’s favorite conspiracist can stay on the field, Wilson should be able to put up solid numbers.
#12 Colby – Christian McCaffrey (RB – 49ers) KEEPER
He was the top back in football last year and there is no reason why he can’t be it again. He is expected to approach 2,000 total yards and 15-20 touchdowns, something he did last year in just 16 games played. With a legit shot to turn Colby into the first ever back-to-back-to-back champion (along with Etienne again), CMC could be known as the greatest first round keeper in league history.
ROUND TWO
#13 Colby – Jayden Waddle (WR – Dolphins)
Last year, Colby kept McCaffrey and Etienne, then managed to draft a stud wide out with the first pick in round two. Can he do it again? I think he tries, but this time with Jayden Waddle. Last year he missed three games, so his numbers dipped, but a healthy Waddle can deliver 1,400 yards and 8-10 scores.
#14 Michael – Zamir White (RB – Raiders)
This may seem like a reach, but he’s the Raiders starting back and last year he was solid when Jacobs was out of the way. In fact, White scored over 200 fantasy points in his final four games last year. Just 14 picks into the draft and Michael will have kept or drafted a solid team with Kyren Williams, Chris Olave, Wilson and now White.
#15 Jeff – Nico Collins (WR – Texans)
Greenblatt is set at RB with Pacheco and Cook, so he grabs the fourth-year wideout in the second round. Collins, with a new offense and rookie QB, took a massive leap forward with 80 catches and nearly 1,300 yards (plus eight scores). There is no reason to believe those digits aren’t achievable again.
#16 Matt – Joe Mixon (RB – Bengals)
If Neatock skips on a RB in round one, he has to go with one in round two. Mixon’s days in Cincy are over and that’s not a bad thing. He’s always been good, but not great. He topped 1,200 yards rushing just once and hit double digit touchdowns also just once. Now in Houston, he should be the feature back in an offense that is desperate for a feature back.
#17 Griff – Kenneth Walker (RB – Seahawks)
I can see Griff aiming for a no-back strategy, fill-up on wideouts, a TE and QB, before grabbing a bunch of backs, but for now, let’s give him Walker. The Hawks RB took a small step backward last year, but I still have faith in him. He’s good. It comes down to usage.
#18 Rich C – Marvin Harrison Jr (WR – Cardinals)
Calderon isn’t known for his big balls when it comes to reaching for rookies, but if the modern NFL has taught us anything, rookie wide receivers can be game changers. Harrison was a stud at Ohio State and he walks into Arizona with a solid QB and the team’s top target.
#19 Robio – Mark Andrews (TE – Ravens)
I think the battle for top tight end this season will come down to Andrews and LaPorta. I give the edge to LaPorta, but he’s being kept, so I reach early for Andrews. When healthy, he’s been neck-and-neck with Travis Kelce the past few years.
#20 Eric – CeeDee Lamb (WR – Cowboys) KEEPER
With the Cowboys running back in question, look for the Cowboys to pass the ball even more. That’s good news for their top target, who joined elite status with over 1,700 yards receiving and 12 scores. Lamb could easily mimic his 2023 season.
#21 Rob M – Cooper Kupp (WR – Rams)
Kupp is hard to figure out. He was hurt last year (and the year before) and he let a rookie take over as the stud receiver. Yet, that Rams offense allows for two stud receivers. Yes, he’s 31 years old and has an Amish beard, but if healthy, he could easily receive 150 targets in 2024.
#22 Bob – Josh Allen (QB – Bills)
And off the board goes our first quarterback. Allen is a first-team All-Robio player and thanks to his rushing yards, remains a better fantasy option than Mahomes. Will losing Diggs hurt? Probably…a little, but if Allen can get his turnovers down, his numbers are going to be fantastic in 2024.
#23 Richard B – Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – Lions) KEEPER
Burrier can actually keep Josh Jacobs in round four, but I’m going with Gibbs for now. The second year back has a much higher ceiling, as I expect him to get more touches than Montgomery this year. If Gibbs isn’t kept, I project him to be a top-five pick in our draft.
#24 Don – Patrick Mahomes (QB – Chiefs)
It comes down to Devonta Adams, Aaron Jones or maybe James Conner. All three are fine players, but Don decides to lock in a sure thing with Mahomes, who even in a “down year” is going to toss the ball for over 4,500 yards and 30 scores.