The 26th addition of the Robioland Football Playoffs is upon us. We have our eight, but in reality, Calderon and myself have been dominating. We are both 1st and 2nd in the standings, going a combined 23-5. We are both first and second in breakdown and first and second in scoring, as the only two league members to average over 1,500 points per game. Yet, this looks like one of the more balanced playoffs we’ve had in a long time. Colby is not a typical 8-seed, Matt has Henry, Mike’s got a couple of studs, Bob has the best rookie arm since Cam Newton, while Jeff and Burrier have pulled a few 1,800-point games out of their asses this season. Any one of these teams could win it all and I wouldn’t be surprised at all. Yet, do I have the balls to not pick either Calderon or myself? We shall see.
#1 THE DICK-TATERS (Rich C) vs #8 MAGIC NUMBERS (Colby)
2024 RECORD
Rich C: 12-2
Colby: 6-8
2024 SCORING
Rich C: 1,507 PPG (2nd)
Colby: 1,307 PPG (8th)
2024 BREAKDOWN
Rich C: 103-51-0 (11-3 vs Colby)
Colby: 62-91-1
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD
RICH C – Calderon’s resume is a mixed bag of championships and being on the wrong side of upsets. He began his postseason career back in 2003, becoming the first 8-seed to beat a 1-seed in the quarterfinals (a 1-seed who was also a scoring champ). In those early days, while he did reach the title game in 2007 (losing to Matt}, he was more known for being a two-seed who lost in the quarterfinals (that happened three times between 2008-2012). In 2013, he finally got up and over that hump. As a two-seed, he ended up defeating Griff for his first ever championship, before falling in the quarterfinals the following season. In 2016, he brought home his second title (defeating 1-seed Jeff as the 2-seed). However, like that first championship, he followed it up with a first round exit. He’s now made the playoffs nine straight times, which is the longest active streak (with Eric out). Since 2018, his postseason results have gone from good to bad. In 2018-2019, he reached the title game in back-to-back seasons, but lost to Matt (2018) and then Robio (2019). The next two years, his seasons came to an end in the semifinals. However, the last two years he has failed to earn a playoff win. Overall, he’s 17-15 in our postseason, going 10-7 in the quarterfinals, 5-5 in the semifinals and 2-3 in the title game. His five title game appearances are tied for fourth most with Bob.
COLBY – He enters the postseason having won six straight playoff games. He’s 13-11 overall, averaging 1,399 per game. He’s a decent 7-6 in the quarterfinals, despite winning in the quarterfinals just once between 2012-2021. He’s 4-3 in the semifinals and he’s split his four title game appearances. He lost to Griff in both 2005 and 2015, before winning back-to-back titles in 2022 and 2023. Fortunately for him, his playoff nemesis didn’t make the playoffs. He’s just 1-5 against Griff in the postseason, but is 12-6 against everyone else.
#1 VS #8 IN THE PLAYOFFS
The one seed remains the best seed to be in the postseason, going 36-20 overall. They are a solid 19-6 in the quarterfinals against the 8-seed. Their 11 wins in the semifinals (11-8) are the most, although they’ve only managed to go 5-6 in the finals (compare to the 2-seed, which is 7-1 in the finals). The five 1-seed champs are Robio ’99, Jason ’01, Matt ’09, Bob ’14 and Colby last year. All four of those teams, unlike Calderon this season, earned the scoring crown as well. This means the 1-seed has never won a championship when it wasn’t also the scoring champ. As for the 8-seed, like I said, just 6 wins in the quarterfinals (6-19) and they are just 1-5 in the semifinals. Eric’s 2021 championship run as the 8-seed is the only championship for the final playoff spot. Overall they are just 8-25, which is the worst among all the seeds.
RICH C vs COLBY | THIS SEASON
The two met back in week nine and Calderon easily walked away with a 1,684-1,173 victory. Rich was led by Barkley, who delivered a 488-point effort (199 yards and two scores), but he also got 200-point efforts from Darnold (270), Walker (214) and Adams (242). Colby still was waiting for McCaffrey, had lost Rice and started three skill players who most likely won’t be playing in the quarterfinals. Josh Allen was his lead scorer, putting up 330 points, while Dowdle (274) and Kupp (208) did well. Unfortunately no other player hit 100 fantasy points (other than his D), as Mattison, Moore and Pitts combined for 160 total points.
RICH C vs COLBY | CAREER
Colby has really struggled against Rich over the years. He began his career losing his first six games to him and he’s never really gotten on track. He won three of four between 2014-2016, but then Calderon rolled off six straight victories. In total, Rich is 21-7 against Colby, which includes four weekly high scores. Colby has never produced a weekly high score against Rich, but he has three weekly low scores.
RICH C vs COLBY | POSTSEASON
These two have only faced off in the postseason one time, which is a bit shocking. That one time was in 2020, when like this season, Rich was the top-seed and Colby was the 8-seed. While Calderon didn’t dominate, he did win, defeating Colby, 1,417-1,137, before stumbling in the semifinals the following week.
The Taters on Top | The Rich Calderon Story
The season started with a bang; a huge victory over Griff, who scored 1,507, but wasn’t enough to overtake Rich’s 1,762. However, over the next month, while Rich kept winning, he wasn’t dominating. He wouldn’t sniff 1,00 again until week seven, four times failing to hit 1,400 and twice not scoring 1,200. While his bottom wasn’t that low, he hit it on week eight when he scored just 1,112 in a week eight defeat to Bob. Yet, he was still 6-2 and in second place. That’s when Rich got rolling. He would end the regular season winning six straight behind the league’s top back (Barkley). He was challenge a few times, pulling out a 117-point win against Masterson and 19-point victory over last place Don, but in those six wins, he averaged a solid 1,645 points per game, topping 1,500 four times. He was eventually able to take over the top spot and hang onto it, earning that third career top seed (all in the last six seasons).
It’s All Smoke & Mirrors | The Colby Hall Story
Colby walked into the season, if not the favorite, at least as one of the favorites. He had McCaffrey back, plus Etienne and the league’s top quarterback (Allen). Yet, all was not as well as we were led to believe. First, McCaffrey was hurt much worse than we thought and Colby failed to secure Mason. Despite this, he won his first game of the year, defending Bob, 1,477-1,254. Yet, Etienne would be a train wreck and before Colby could get rolling, he would lose both his stud receivers. First, Kupp, then Rice for the season. He would drop four of his next six, beating only Masterson in week three in a high scoring game, 1,727-1,535. Behind Bigsby in week seven, he pulled off a big upset over undefeated me, but the Jaguars back was a fraud and Colby would drop three straight, including a lose to Matt where he scored only 722 points. The two-time defending champ was 3-7 and last in points. Yet, that week McCaffrey came back and the team came alive, even though CMC wasn’t what he once was. It helped that three of his final four were against non-playoff teams and Colby took advantage of it, winning three of his final four games. In that final game, he scored 1,902 points and managed to overcome an 862-point deficit to Eric to steal the 8-seed to chase the three peat.
#2 ATTACK OF THE CAT SNACK (ROBIO) vs #7 DUDELOVE (MICHAEL)
2024 RECORD
Robio: 11-3
Michael: 7-7
2024 SCORING
Robio: 1,528 PPG (1st)
Michael: 1,379 PPG (7th)
2024 BREAKDOWN
Robio: 107-47 (8-6 vs Mike)
Michael: 86-68
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD
ROBIO – I remain the king of the postseason, going a league best 27-12 (.711). My 1,513 points per game is also a league high. I’m a league best 13-4 in the quarterfinals and 9-4 in the semifinals. My nine trips to the finals are a league high (one more than Griff). I’m 5-4 in the title game and my five championships are a league best. Despite these impressive overall numbers, it’s been a struggle lately to advance. I was once 13-1 in the quarterfinals, winning nine straight until 2021. Since that season, I’ve lost three straight games in the quarterfinals to Jeff, Matt and Michael.
MICHAEL – Micheal began his career struggling to find postseason success. He failed to score 1,000 in his first two postseason games and lost in the quarterfinals in his first three trips. However, he finally found victory lane last year and not only won in the quarterfinals, but he advanced to the title game, where he lost to Colby by only 100 points. It was the fifth tightest title game in league history. Overall, Michael is 2-4 in the playoffs, going 1-3 in the quarterfinals, 1-0 in the semifinals and 0-1 in the finals. He’s only averaged 1,278 points per game in the postseason, which is the second lowest average in league history (only Burrier is worse).
#2 VS #7 IN THE PLAYOFFS
While the 2-seed enjoys a better overall record, the 7-seed still leads the 2-seed in their head-to-head meeting, going 14-11. They’ve won three of the last four and Neatock has won as the 7-seed in back-to-back season, taking out me in 2022 and Griff in last year’s quarterfinals. Overall though, the two-seed is 28-19 (second best playoff record), going 8-3 in the semifinals and an amazing 7-1 in the finals. The seven championships via the 2-seed are the most of any seed. They were Robio ’00, Bob ’04, Calderon ’13, Griff ’15, Calderon ’16, Matt ’17 and Robio ’19. As for the 7-seed, they also have eight semifinal wins (8-6) and they’ve won half of the title games they’ve been in, including Don twice in 2006 & 2008, plus Bob ’11 and Matt ’18.
ROBIO vs MICHAEL | THIS SEASON
Michael and I faced off in week ten and I walked away a 1,551-1,378 winner. I was led by Joe Burrow, who delivered 506 points, thanks to four touchdowns, including a 67 yarder and a 70 yarder. On top of that, Kamara and Cook combined for 448 points and Pickens came alive with 250. I was without Nico Collins, so I only managed 46 points from his replacement. Michael got 358 from Purdy, but Gibbs (200) and the Vikings DST (294) were the only others to top 200. He went three-wide with Mason no longer the starter in SF, but Nabers, Nacua and Thomas combined for just 316 points.
ROBIO vs MICHAEL | CAREER
Michael leads the all-time series 6-4, thanks to a three-game winning streak in 2022 and 2023. In two of his first three games against me, he had the week’s high score and he’s topped 1,500 five times in 10 games. Meanwhile, I’ve done that three times against him.
ROBIO vs MICHAEL | POSTSEASON
Despite Mike’s short time in this league, this will be our third meeting in the postseason. In his first year in the league, he faced me as the 7-seed in the quarterfinals. However, my 2019 squad proved to be the best ever and I easily defeated Evangelist, 1,692-831. However, in 2023, Michael got his revenge. Sitting at the 3-seed, he avoided the upset and took me down, 1,581-1,187.
My Sixth Sense | The Robio Murray Story
I’ve never started a season this good, winning my first three, scoring over 1,500 in all three wins, including 2,064 in a week two victory over Jeff. My points would begin to decrease, especially after losing Collins, but I still started 6-0. Then things took a strange turn, as I would lose two straight to Colby and Masterson, two teams struggling to find wins. In week nine, I rediscovered my groove. I would win five of my final six games, losing only to Burrier by 81 points. Unfortunately that defeat cost me the top seed. Still, I finished the year averaging 1,543 points, which allowed me to earn the scoring crown for the sixth time in my career. Time will tell if I can win my sixth title,
Stella Needs Her Groove Back | The Michael Evangelist Story
Like so many of Michael’s seasons, his season was the tale of two seasons. The year started off poorly, as he delivered a weekly low score in a week one defeat to Masterson, 1,139-027. However, behind Jordan Mason, the wins started to pile up. He would win his next four and at 4-1, he was up in the rankings with Calderon and me. A week six defeat to Calderon seemed like a hiccup, especially after topping 1,500 in a week seven win over Griff. That’s when things took a wrong turn. Michael would drop his next four games, producing another weekly low score (779 in week 9). Fortunately, he salvage it at the end, winning two of his final three, finishing the year at .500 and earning the 7-seed.
#3 THUNDERPANTS (RICH B) vs #6 THE GENIUS (MATT)
2023 RECORD
Rich B: 9-5
Matt: 7-7
2023 SCORING
Rich B: 1,402 (4th)
Matt: 1,381 (6th)
2023 BREAKDOWN
Rich B: 78-76 (8-6 vs Matt)
Matt: 79-75
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD
RICH B – He arrived in the playoffs in just his second season in the league and managed to sweep his opponents to earn a first career title. He’s one of three people to earn a mug in his second season or earlier. Yet, since that magical 2003 season, playoff success has been hard to find. While he’s made it to the postseason in 68.2% of his seasons (fifth best), he hasn’t won many games once there. After winning the title, he would drop his next five quarterfinal games, until the 2011 season, when he finally got over that hump and reached the title game, falling to Bob. In those three games, he never faced a team higher than the 6-seed. No one has ever done that before. Anyhow, he followed that up with a return trip to the semifinals, but he would drop his next four quarterfinal games. Since 2020, he’s made the playoffs three times and reached the semifinals twice, but he’s gone 13 years without reaching the title game and it’s been 21 years since he won a championship. That’s second longest gap without a championship in league history. Overall, Richard is 7-13 in the postseason, going 5-10 in the quarterfinals, 2-3 in the semifinals and 1-1 in the finals. He’s averaged just 1,258 points per game in the playoffs, which is the lowest points per game average in the league.
MATT – While Neatock isn’t the best at getting to the playoffs, there is no doubt he is one of the better postseason teams once he’s there. He’s got 19 wins, which is fourth most, behind only myself, Bob and Griff. He’s a solid 9-5 in the quarterfinals, 6-3 in the semifinals and is 4-2 in the finals. He’s just one of two people to have a winning record in every round of the playoffs and his 1,489 points per game is the second most in league history. After losing his first two quarterfinal games of his career, he’s only lost three since 2007 and only once since 2014. In fact, he’s never lost three in a row in the postseason ever. He recently reached the title game and lost to Colby just two years ago and just since 2018, he’s turned into a giant killer, beating one 3-seed, three 2-seeds and two 1-seeds. He’s also one of just four people to have back-to-back titles (2017-2018) and he would have five championships if it wasn’t for a brutal one-point loss in the 2014 championship game to Bob.
#3 VS #6 IN THE PLAYOFFS
Recently, the 6-seed has dominated the 3-seed, winning seven of the last nine meetings. Overall, the two seeds are 13-12 against the six seed. The 3-seed is 23-24 overall (.477), after Michael reached the title game last year as the 3-seed. Many three seeds have had success in the semifinals, going 7-4, but are just 2-5 in the finals and those two championships were a long time ago…Robio ’02 and Burrier ’03. As for the six seed, despite the recent success in the quarterfinals, the 6-seed is still just 16-24 overall. They are just 3-9 in the semifinals and they are 0-3 in the finals, remaining the only seed to never win a championship.
RICH B vs MATT | THIS SEASON
These two last faced off back in week four and it was a tight one to say the list. Burrier escaped with a 1,496-1,490 victory. While he only managed 186 from Mahomes, he did get 286 from Conners and 230 from Chase. However, it was the 49ers DST that made the biggest impact. They scored 302 points, thanks to three turnovers, six sacks and a defensive score. Matt got 538 points from Derrick Henry and 260 from his kicker (Yoo), but nobody else hit 200, including Hurts who scored just 174. Also at that time, Matt hadn’t discovered Sutton, so he Wass starting Dotson, who managed only 22 points.
RICH B vs MATT | CAREER
Matt needs the all-time series 16-12. He won a lot early, taking three of the first four and then winning five straight between 2007-2010. By the end of the 2011 regular season, Matt led the series 9-3. However, Burrier would turn things around and he would win seven of the next nine games, including four straight between 2015-2018. However, Matt swept Rich in two 2019 games and he had won five of six before losing this season. Oddly enough, there’s only been one weekly high score in this series. Matt scored 2,011 in a win in 2010. Each has just one weekly low score against each other.
RICH B vs MATT | POSTSEASON
Matt may be leading the all-time series, but he’s never defeated Burrier in the postseason. Rich is 2-0 against Neatock. Back in 2003, Matt’s first season in the league, he earned the 6-seed and faced the 3-seed Burrier in the quarterfinals. Rich won easily, 1,592-1,129, on his way to his first and only title. In 2011, once again Matt was the 6-seed when he met 3-seed Burrier in the quarterfinals. This time, Matt scored, but it wasn’t enough, as Rich pulled out a 1,760-1,617 victory. Both times Rich beat Matt in the quarterfinals, he reached the finals.
Be a Better Rich | The Richard Burrier Story
Picked to be at or near the bottom of the standings, not even Burrier’s failure to set his lineup could derail a successful nine-win 2024 season. While he began the season with a win over Jeff, it wasn’t impressive and he went on to lose his next two, failing to top 1,200 in both. Then lady luck found him and showed him a way to win the tight ones. That began in week four, when he beat Neatock by just six points, 1,496-1,490. The following week, he finally put up some numbers, thanks to Ja’Marr Chase deliver over 500 points. He easily defeated Bob 1,838-1,474. Yet, in week six, he again escaped with a tight victory, beating Colby by just three points, 1,058-1,055.
What followed was a two-game slide to two of the worst teams in the league, Masterson and Don. At 4-4, no one was afraid of Burrier. Yet, a week nine victory over Michael; a game Rich only scored 1,068 points (to Mike’s 779) got the ball rolling for him. He would score a second 1,800-pt game in a win over Griff, followed by 81-point win over me, a six-point victory over Jeff, then another 1,800-pt performance in a win over Eric, which locked him into the third seed. In the final week, he fell to Calderon, but still managed to score over 1,600 points. He became the first person to win three games by less than 10 points in one season. In total, while he won three blowouts by scoring over 1,800, four of his victories came by less than 100 points.
The Inconsistent Genius | The Matt Neatock Story
Matt’s road to the playoffs became with a pair of wins, including an impressive 1,646-1,573 victory over Masterson. Yet, a three-game slide followed, in which he failed to score 1,500 in any contest. He had his best game of the year in week six, scoring 1,966, as Hurts, Henry and Godwin delivered 1,106 points, but he followed that up with a 1,084 point defeat to Calderon. Heading into week eight, he was 3-4. Behind Henry and Stevenson though, Matt would win his next three, scoring over 1,700 in wins over Griff and Bob. Yet, Stevenson flopped and Godwin was gone and he would drop his next two, losing to Jeff (which is fine) and Don (which is not). A second victory over Masterson in week 13 guaranteed he wouldn’t have a losing season, but he failed to beat Michael in the final week, locking him at .500 and earning the 6-seed. While he did score over 1,500 a total of five times, he also failed to score 1,200 five times.
#4 FOOTBALL (JEFF) vs #5 AIYUK, ACHANE… (BOB)
2024 RECORD
Jeff: 8-6
Bob: 8-6
2024 SCORING
Jeff: 1,436 PPG (3rd)
Bob: 1,398 PPG (6th)
2024 BREAKDOWN
Jeff: 86-68-0
Bob: 90-64-0 (9-5 vs Jeff)
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD
JEFF – Thanks to some recent trips to the finals, Greenblatt is above .500 for his postseason career (9-7 overall). He’s 5-3 in the quarterfinals, 3-2 in the semifinals and 1-2 in the finals. All three trips to the finals have come in the last eight years. He won his first championship over me in 2021 and nearly went back-to-back, before falling to Eric the following season. After losing his first three career quarterfinal games, he’s won his last five dating back to 2016, including knocking off Calderon last year, before falling to Michael in the semifinals.
BOB – He’s back! He’s back in a place he has found a ton of success in the past. Between 2004-2014, Castrone dominated our playoffs, losing just twice in the quarterfinals and reaching four title games, winning them all in 2004, 2010, 2011 and 2012. He was 16-6 overall in the playoffs during that time. However, Bob hasn’t won a championship since that 2014 campaign. He’s still won more games in the quarterfinals than he’s lost (4-3), but he’s just 1-3 in the semifinals and in his one trip back to the finals in 2017, he lost to Neatock (his only finals defeat). If Bob doesn’t win it this year, that will be a full decade without a mug. Still, overall he remains one of the best. He’s 21-13 and his 21 wins are the second most. He’s 12-5 in the quarterfinals, 5-7 in the semifinals an 4-1 in the finals. His 1,434 points per game are the third most.
#4 VS #5 IN THE PLAYOFFS
Over the last three years, the 4-seed has taken three of the last four games against the 5-seed in the quarterfinals. However, prior to that, the 5-seed had won seven in a row over the 4-seed. Overall in the quarterfinals, the 5-seed is an unbelievable 17-8 against the 4-seed. The 17 victories is two less than the 1-seed has over the 8-seed. Oddly enough though, beyond the quarters, the 4-seed has been more successful. Overall, the 4-seed is just 16-23. They are 8-17 in the quarterfinals, but 9-4 after that first round, going 5-3 in the semifinals and they’ve won four of their five games in the finals, including Griff ’05, Bob ’10, Robio ’12 and Colby in 2022). Meanwhile, the 5-seed is 27-23, but are just 6-11 in the semifinals and they have won just two of their six title games. They were Matt ’07 and Jeff ’20.
JEFF vs BOB | THIS SEASON
These two old pros faced off in week four and Bob dropped Jeff to 1-3 on the year after pulling out a 1,446-1,267 victory. Bob was led by the rookie, Jayden Daniels who scored 358 points, but also got 276 from Taylor, while four others, McLaurin, Kelce, McPherson and the Chargers DST all scored over 150. Only Achane (58) and Aiyuk (96) failed to show. Meanwhile, Jeff got a solid 924 points from Goff (354), Hubbard (302) and Williams (268), but London was the only other player to crack 100. Tyreek Hill, Gesicki, Zuerlin and the Steelers D combined for just 215 points.
JEFF vs BOB | CAREER
Castrone has taken care of business against Jeff for the most part. He won their first three meetings and seven of the first eight contests. In 2016, Jeff swept Bob in two games, before dropping his next three. From 2020-2022, Greenblatt had his most successful run against Bob, taking five of six, but he’s now dropped two in a row.
JEFF vs BOB | POSTSEASON
These two have met just once in the postseason and it was back in 2020. By then, Bob was a four-time champion who made deep playoff runs his thing. Jeff had reached two title games since 2016, including the year before, but he was not considered a true title contender. My money was on Bob. I would have lost my money. As the 5-seed, Jeff steamrolled Castrone, 1,859-1,322. He would go on to win in the semifinals, before defeating me in the title game, earning his first and only title.
Under appreciated & Unloved | The Jeff Greenblatt Story
Jeff’s season began with two unimpressive defeats to Burrier and Robio, as he failed to hit 1,100 in either game. Things…were not looking good, especially with Hill struggling after week one and the fact he lacked a credible second back. Yet, Jeff worked the wire and found Hubbard, who was cut by me. Well, he, alongside Williams, suddenly gave Greenblatt the sorta backfield a team needs to win. He scored 1,594 in week three, defeating Eric. Sure, he fell to Bob and dipped to 1-3, but he would then win his next five contests, although four of the wins came against the bottom four clubs and he scored over 1,500 only once (he produced 1,749 in week six). Still, wins are wins and Jeff was sitting at 6-3 when he faced Calderon. He would drop that game and he would eventually lose three of his final five, yet in his two wins, he scored 1,940 points both times (in week 11 vs Matt and the final game against Eric). In that last game, four players topped 300. While Jeff may lack consistency to win three in a row, he has enough of a punch to put down a favorite.
The Return of the Mac | The Bob Castrone Story
Knowing Bob, the man wasn’t happy missing the playoffs two straight seasons. So starting the year 0-2 had to feel like a one-two punch to the gut. He lost to the defending champ in week one, then followed that up with a defeat to Mike. He would go on to win his next two, yet he wasn’t dominating anyone. In fat, he would lose his next three and at 2-5, he again wasn’t a playoff threat, as he had yet to break 1,500 in any game. In week eight, things didn’t look like they would improve, as he faced Calderon, but five players topped 240 fantasy points, Bob scored 1,782 and turned one-defeat Calderon into two-defeat Calderon.
The following week, he would fall to Matt, but at least he scored 1,690 points in the defeat and it looked like the potential to turn things around was there. And that’s what happened. He would lose again, winning his final five games, although oddly enough, three of those wins came despite the fact he failed to score 1,300 points. Yet, wins…they are wins and it’s not his fault his final five foes averaged just 1,060 points per game. He finished with eight victories and earned the five seed.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL?
If you want to do good in fantasy football, you’d best avoid the Fantasy Pros web site, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun with all the information. Below are the percentages that Fantasy Pros gives each team to win it.
- Attack of the Cat Snacks (Robio) – 16%
The scoring champ gets the top spot, but I’m more than that, as I’m also first in breakdown. - Thunderpants (Rich B) – 15%
Despite falling to Calderon for a second time this week, Burrier is the slight favorite over Calderon. - The Dick-Taters (Rich C) – 14%
I guess we can call this bulletin board material to motivate the squad. - Aiyuk Achane Adonai Eioheinu Melekh Ha’olam (Bob) – 14%
Bob faces Jeff in the quarterfinals and FantasyPros’s says Bob is the favorite. - Football (Jeff) – 13%
Considering the difference between first and fifth is just 3%, this mug is truly up for grabs. - DudeLove (Michael) – 10%The Genius (Matt) – 12%
I think he has an upset in him, but not a three-game winning streak. - The Genius (Matt) – 9%
At least we now know he’ll blame his kids when he doesn’t win that fifth championship - Magic Numbers (Colby) – 8%
Let the three-peat begin.
X-FACTOR
The X-Factor is not the best player on each team, although he is the most important, in my mind, to help a team win three in a row.
The Dick-Taters – Aaron Jones
To keep a great team from winning it all, it’s always best to knock them out early and Calderon certainly has been a victim of quarterfinals upsets. Heading into the postseason, he seemed stacked at the running back spot. Hell, he could start just Barkley and he would still have a better running game than some teams. However, heading into the quarterfinals, both Isaac Guerendo and Ken Walker are hurt and whether they play or not play is up in the air. This leaves Aaron Jones…I told you he was stacked at RB. The Vikings back is the 13th best back in fantasy, so starting him isn’t a real concern. He has scored over 200 seven times this season and he once hit 356 points. Yet, twice in the last month he has finished a game with just 86 points, mustering up only 61 yards rushing on 23 carries. The good news is if he plays this week, he’s facing the Bears. He scored 288 against them just three weeks ago.
Attack of the Cat Snacks – Alvin Kamara
The Saints running back earned a third-team All-Robio award, so it’s odd to call him an x-factor, yet here we are. He hasn’t had a great game since week nine (when he scored 430) and he’s failed to hit 200 in two of his last four. His rushing average is down and he hasn’t scored a TD since week six. On top of that, Miller is starting to eat into his carries. I have Robinson, he’s my star back, but right now, I wished I traded Don Kamara and not James Cook. If he can’t get going, I’ll struggle to win three straight games.
Thunderpants – Patrick Mahomes
The eight playoff teams feature QBs like Allen, Daniels, Hurts, Burrow, Goff, Tua/Darnold and Purdy. That’s a lot of 300 and 400-pt games. Mahomes may end up winning another Super Bowl this season, but he has not been a great fantasy quarterback. In fact, he has broken 300 just twice all year. While he should have little resistance this week against the Browns, if Burrier advances, the Chiefs will be facing two of the best pass defenses in the league with Houston and Pittsburgh next on deck.
Football? – Tyreek Hill
He was the best wideout in football last year and was nothing close to an X-factor, but 2024 has not been his year. He struggled badly without Tua and even when his QB came back, he was decent at best, at least until week 13. He’s scored 528 points in his last two, but the problem is, he’s not 100% and the next two weeks he will face two of the better teams at shutting down receivers. There was a time when it didn’t matter who his opponent was, but those days are not today.
The Genius – Matt Neatock
Yep, Matt’s x-factor is himself. He’s got the lowest coach rating of all the playoffs as too often too many points are left on his pine. His free agent usage feels like a guy who suddenly says to himself, “oh shit, I have a fantasy football team, I should check that out.” Hell, his lineup isn’t even set and the first game is tonight.
Aiyuk, Achane, Adonai, Eloheinu, Melekh, Ha’olam – Tee Higgins
So, which Tee will Bob get each week? He’s played eight games this year and he has 60 yards receiving in all but two contests. He’s also scored in half of his games. His numbers are decent-to-good. However, the Bengals are tossing it a ton, but so much of the production goes to Chase. Bob needs Higgins to be a 1B to Chase’s 1A if he’s going to finish the season with eight straight victories.
Dudelove – Malik Nabers
MIke’s got just one functioning back, so Nabers is his flex guy. The problem is, with Daniel Jones, he can’t put up RB type numbers. He’s not terrible, as he has 64 yards or more receiving in his last three games, but he hasn’t cracked 200 since week four and the rookie hasn’t scored a TD since week three. For Michael to have a run, Nabers needs to find a way to be a legit WR1.
Magic Numbers – Handcuffs
With McCaffrey done for the season, Colby now has a pair of handcuffs to fill his need at RB2. He has Patrick Taylor on his pine and he has Charbonnet in his starting lineup. He also has Etienne, but if he’s playing him, Colby ain’t winning. This week, Charbonnet should be starting for Seattle, which means he’s a legit RB1. He’s capable of putting up numbers to help take down Calderon…but beyond this week, will he or Taylor be able to help Colby chase that third title? Unlikely…but I’ve been wrong before.
PREDICTION TIME
According to CBS, the two top teams, the ones who went a combined 23-5, the clear leader in points all season, are not clear cut favorites to even win this week. Calderon is just 33-point favorite over Colby and Michael is actually a 29-point favorite over me. Meanwhile, the third highest scoring team in the league (Jeff) is only being given a 41% of beating Bob. Only Burrier is a higher seed and a heavy favorite, given a 69% chance to take out Neatock. Like I always say, just make the playoffs and win three games.
QUARTERFINALS
#1 RICH C vs #8 COLBY (+25)
Well, this battle just got interesting. Two weeks ago Calderon stole Colby’s handcuff when he picked up Guerendo after McCaffrey and Mason went down. This week, with Walker out again this week, Colby goes and drops mad dollars on Charbonnet and quickly inserts him in his starting lineup. If Colby can pull off this upset behind Charbonnet, it’s going to break Calderon’s heart, since Rich dropped the Seahawks back in week 14.
For Colby, it does seem like a lot is coming together at the right time. Charbonnet scored 506 points last week and should be heavily featured against the Packers this week. Josh Allen will once again be asked to do a lot against a good Lions team. Dowdle, who has 588 points in his last two games, should find plenty of room to run against a weak Panthers D. Flowers has been hit-or-miss this season, but he’s facing a bad Giants team that will be 16-point underdogs against the Ravens. And Kupp took a backseat to Nacua last week, but I often find these two switch roles every other week, so Kupp should be the top target for Stafford this week.
For Calderon, no Guerendo and no Walker and he’s asking Darnold to put up solid numbers for a second straight game. This seems reasonable against a suspect Bears defense at home. He put up 300+ just a few weeks ago. Rich definitely needs a stud game from Barkley but the Eagles facing a Steelers D that is top-10 against the run. The last back to rush for 100 yards against them was Tyrone Tracy in week eight, when he rushed for 135 yards. Look for Adams to put up solid numbers against the Jaguars and DJ Moore already has a 100-yard game against the Vikings. Mark Andrews gets the start against the Giants, but the reality is, the Giants have been solid shutting down TEs, at least until last week when the Saints TEs got 100 yards and a score.
If there was ever a time to pick an 8 vs 1 upset, it’s this season. There is a lot to like about Colby’s lineup and the matchups they will face this week. Yet, I’m not going to do it. I actually think Barkley and Jones will outscore Charbonnet and Dowdle, although all four will have solid games. While Allen should outscore Darnold at the QB spot, I think the Vikings arm does just enough. Yet, I think the difference this week will be the Ravens DST. They face a Giants team that can’t score, turns it over and lets their QB get sacked a ton. Look for the Ravens DST, who hasn’t scored over 200 all season, to hit 250 this week.
WINNER: The Dick-Taters, 1,748 – 1,588
#2 ROBIO vs #7 MICHAEL (-29)
I win 11 games, lead the league in scoring, yet I’m projected to lose to a .500 seven-seed? What the fuck? I’m not surprised though. CBS has never liked my squad. In fact, I was the underdog in eight of my first 11 games this year and I ended up winning six of those contests as the dog. Having said that, I can see why Michael is getting plenty of love. He’s coming off a solid week and perhaps is getting hot at the right time. Purdy is back and has a favorite matchup at home against the Rams who let josh Allen deliver the greatest fantasy day by a QB ever. He should toss it a lot to Kittle, who Mike also has. On top of that, Gibbs is facing the Bills, who are 28th in the league at stopping the run in fantasy, while Nacua has become one of those receivers that plays well no matter who the team is facing. Even the Vikings DST at home against a struggling Bears O could deliver some meaty points.
Yet, do I have the pieces to pull off another “upset” this week? I’m led by Burrow and Robinson. Combined, I need to get about 700 points from them. I’m worried about Kamara’s playing time with Miller now getting action coming off his suspension. Nico should be a stud receiver, but Stroud continues to not look good and the Dolphins defense is the second best against wide receivers this year. Last week Jonnu Smith was shutout during regular season, only to awaken overtime. I can’t have him disappear again, as I need him not get blown out by Kittle. Even on DST, I’m suspect. Due to matchups, I’m starting the Bengals DST. They are one of the worst in the league, but they are facing the Titans, who have one of the worst offenses in the league.
I actually get why Michael is the favorite, as I have a few of his players on another team in another league, but I’m riding on my side. The Attacked Cats have defied CBS’s expectations all season and they’ll do it one more time.
WINNER: Attack of the Cat Snacks, 1,380 – 1,304
#3 RICH B vs #6 MATT (+305)
So is Matt going to actually set his lineup or is he really benching Derrick Henry and Courtland Sutton and leaving an injured Irving in his lineup, alongside Nick Chubb? I mean, it’s only the playoffs. Burrier, not the king of setting his lineup either, does still have Chase and Bowers starting and both should continue to dominate this week. I also like Mahomes topping 300. Sure he’s only done it twice this year, but giving up 280 yards passing and two throwing touchdowns per game is sorta the Browns thing. The key to a Rich victory will be his backs. Harris has a tough challenge against a solid Eagles front, but James Connor should put up 300 easily. The Patriots run D has been better, but they have allowed over 100 yards rushing eight times, including two 185-yard games.
I’ll assume Matt will properly set his lineup at some point, but his biggest challenge this week will be at the QB spot. Hurts is a solid fantasy quarterback, but he’s facing the top-rated fantasy defense against quarterbacks. Running quarterbacks don’t run against them, they’ve given up just one 300-yard game and they have more interceptions than passing TDs allowed. While I do like Henry against the Giants, don’t be surprised if the game is a blowout and Hill gets more touches. I’m also concerned about LaPorta’s continuing averageness.
It’s always dangerous to pick against Neatock in the quarterfinals, so why start now. Neatock gets his lineup start and behind the tush-push and Henry, pulls off the upset against Burrier,
WINNER: THE GENIUS, 1,502 – 1,474
#4 JEFF vs #5 BOB (-131)
Bob walks into the playoffs hot, having won five straight. He’s got a stud QB, facing a weak Saints D and a stud back, although Achane has a tougher foe against the Texans in Texas. The challenge for Bob is, if one of those two doesn’t put up big digits, then he can’t have a bad day from anyone else. Kelce doesn’t find the end zone enough, while Higgins is too often playing second fiddle to Chase and if he fails to score, he fails to put up big numbers.
Greenblatt is not getting enough love because both Tyreek and McBride are questionable and even if Hill plays, he’s facing a tough Texans D. Still, both the Panthers and Rams should rely on their backs, so expect solid efforts from both Hubbard and Williams and look for Goff to have a good game in a battle with the Bills. I suspect Jennings’ numbers will drop this week, as Deebo has been whining for the ball.
With Bob being such a heavy favorite, I’m going to call this my underdog bite of the week.
WINNER: Football?, 1,390-1,298
SEMIFINALS #1 RICH C vs #6 MATT
Matt has Lady Luck on his side in the postseason, but Calderon has talent and the one guy who can easily match Henry. Barkley is going to dominate these first two weeks of the postseason and Neatock can only sit home and watch.
WINNER: THE Dick-Taters
#2 ROBIO vs #4 JEFF
Once again I will be the underdog by CBS and once again my boys will show that AI what’s up. Jeff has the pieces to put up a monster game and is capable of being both Rich and I, but I suspect I’ll continue to score 1,500 and that will be enough.
WINNER: Attack of the Cat Snacks
FINALS
#1 RICH C vs #2 ROBIO
I know, boring, right? The top two seeds…real ballsy Murray! it is what it is and while Rich has the better team, I have history on my side and sure, the past means nothing, but let’s make it mean everything. Calderon hasn’t beaten me in either his league or mine in the postseason since his 2003 upset as the 8-seed. I’ve beaten him three times in a title game in either this league or my league. Also, the top seed in this league has never won a championship without also being a scoring champ. I’m the scoring champ. I will be your champ.
WINNER: ATTACK OF THE CAT SNACKS
Your Champion