Let’s be honest, does anyone want to read this and see that I picked them to win? I mean, I went 1-3 in the quarterfinals. If I had a dollar for every time I was right, I would have earned just $1 last week.
#4 FOOTBALL (Jeff) vs #8 MAGIC NUMBERS (Colby)
RECORD
Jeff: 9-6
Colby: 7-8
POINTS
Jeff: 1,447
Colby: 1,329
BREAKDOWN
Jeff: 95-70 (10-5 vs Colby)
Colby: 72-92-1
HISTORY
These former teammates, who were separated back in 2009, will be facing off in the postseason for the first time ever. They’ve met on the regular season playing field a total of 17 times. Jeff won the first ever meeting back in 2009, pulling out a low scoring, 1,166-1,056 victory. However, it was Colby who dominate the early days, winning the next four and declaring victory in six of the first eight battles. However, since 2016, Greenblatt has taken control, he has won seven of the last nine meetings, winning four in a row between 2019-2022. In that four-game winning streak, Jeff produced the most points that week three times, averaging 1,763 points per game. Jeff leads the all-time series 9-8. Colby has never had a weekly high score against Jeff and has topped 1,500 only four times.
THIS SEASON
These two faced off back in week four and Jeff walked away a 63-point winner, beating Colby, 1,451-1,388. That roster was a very different roster for Jeff, who came into that contest at 1-3. Only two of his eight starters that day are playing this weekend. They are his current running backs, Hubbard, who scored 220 that week and Williams, who hit 240 points. However, it was Geno Smith who led the way with 322 points, while his kicker chipped in a solid 210 points.
For Colby, the defeat dropped him below .500 and he hasn’t been above it since. His best effort came from a receiver he doesn’t have anymore, as DJ Moore scored 330 points. Flowers added 240 and Josh Allen produced 244 points. Unfortunately, Colby only got 218 points from his two running backs, Etienne and Ford. Too bad he didn’t start Dowdle, who scored 288 on his pine.
THE BATTLES WITHIN
QUARTERBACKS
Despite being an 8-seed, Colby enters the contest as a five-point favorite. A lot of that has to do with Josh Allen, who has scored like 5,000 points the last two weeks. He returns home, but unlike his last two games, the Bills are not expected to be in a 80 combined points battle with a playoff team. In fact, my only concern with Allen this week is the fact I expect the Bills to easily win. I expect the Bills to run the ball more, while Allen runs less. 300 isn’t out of the question, but 388 seems high.
Meanwhile, Jared Goff is coming off his best game as a pro (624 points). I do not think he’s going to do that again. In fact, I don’t think he’s going to score half that this week. The Lions face the Bears, who are the number one defense against the pass in fantasy. A month ago, Goff only scored 258 points and fun fact, this will be only the second time all season the Lions played outside. The only other time Goff went outdoors, it was against the Packers and he finished with 146 points. Worst yet, Goff has been pretty bad on the road. Take away the Cowboys game when he was facing a Dallas D that was decimated by injuries and he’s averaged just 181 points per game.
QB POINTS
Colby – 316 points
Jeff – 222 points
RUNNING BACKS
Colby returns with Rico Dowdle and Zach Charbonnet. Dowdle has turned into a really reliable RB1 in fantasy. He has 886 fantasy points in the last three, as the Cowboys have leaned on their running game and Dowdle eats up most of the carries. He has 25 last week and has 84 carries in his last four contests. The Buccaneers are a good run defense, but they’re aren’t dominant. Three teams have rushed for over 100 yards, but they’ve only allowed six rushing touchdowns on the season. Charbonnet gets another go around because Walker remains out. He failed to match his 506-point effort from week 14, but 192 fantasy points wasn’t tragic last week, especially when you realize he only got eight carries against the Packers. His problem is he will be running against the league’s second best rushing defense. They only allow 73 rushing yards per game, but good backs like Gibbs, Connor and Robinson have had good games against them. However, like the Buccaneers, they don’t give up rushing touchdowns (six on the season). Look for both Dowdle and Charbonnet to get a high volume of touches, but they’ll lack the score to deliver game changing stats.
Jeff has both the better backs and the better matchups. Chuba Hubbard is at home facing the Cardinals, who are 20th against the run, but also just gave up 500 points to Charbonnet two weeks ago. Hubbard has been inconsistent lately, scoring only 56 points three weeks ago and 98 last week against the Cowboys and the reality is, he has scored 300 just once with Young at QB. However, I think he’s due for a burst out game against the Cardinals, who allow about 145 total yards and 12 scores to backs this season. In fact, they have allowed 100 yards rushing the last two games and six times since week three. Meanwhile, Karen Williams rushes against the 11th best Jets defense, but look for the Rams to rely more on their running game playing in Jersey, with the weather being around 24 degrees with 10-15 mile per hour winds. While Williams hasn’t dominated the yards per carry category, he has dominated in carries, getting 29 in each of the last two games.
RB POINTS
Colby – 446 points
Jeff – 522 points
WIDE RECEIVERS
Colby throws caution into the wind, benches Cooper Kupp for the rookie Ladd McConkey. It makes sense, as Kupp is coming off zero points and will be trying to catch balls in freezing cold and windy conditions against the Jets. Since week 11, Ladd has become Hubert’s favorite target, getting a team high 34 targets in four games and he’s producing. He has 26 catches for 380 yards and a score. He is facing the fifth best defense against receivers (Broncos), so it might not be the easiest week. The last time he faced them, he had just four catches for 43 yards, but that was back in week six. The reality is, good hands have had some success lately against the Broncos, who gave up 127 yards to Flowers, 121 yards to Meyers and 235 yards to Jeudy, so the potential to hit 100 yards is there for the kid. Speaking of Flowers, who faces the Steelers, who are oddly number one against quarterbacks in fantasy, but just 15th against receivers. Flowers faced them just four weeks ago and was held to just two catches for 39 yards, but he did score. The problem with Flowers is, while he’ll shine from time-to-time, scoring 242 in week two, 240 in week five and 268 in week six, other than that, he’s pretty average, only averaging 128 per contest.
Jeff is rolling with Drake London and Tyreek Hill. This week, Hill decided to bash his coach, which is never good if you’re a Dolphins fan, but can it be a positive in fantasy? The Fins are at home facing the 4th best defense against wide receivers. Now, good receivers like Jefferson, Lamb and Smith-Njigba have had 100+ yards against this D, but is Hill still an elite receiver? He did have 10 catches for 115 yards against the Jets two weeks ago, but that’s his only double digit target game since week five and his first 100-yard game since week one. Part of the problem is he’s not healthy. He’s not even practicing as of this writing. Thus, I expect his yards to be average, but I like him for a TD this week. As for London, who knows what we’re going to get as the Falcons have benched Cousins and are going with a rookie arm. Penix and the Falcons will be facing a bad Giants team at home, but they are actually good at defending receivers in fantasy. In fact, the Giants have not allowed a receiver to hit 100 yards receiving this season, although they have allowed 14 touchdowns by wideouts. I suspect the Falcons will run the ball a ton, the rookie himself will run, so London’s yard totals will be low, but a score is reasonable.
WR POINTS
Colby – 342 points
Jeff – 358 points
TIGHT ENDS
Since Drake Maya become the starting QB in New England, Henry’s stats have risen, although he will never be a dominant tight end. He has scored over 120 in two of his last four games, and between weeks 11-13, he received 26 targets, which is great. The challenge for him is that the Bills are pretty good at keeping tight ends in check, at least until last week. Prior to that game against the Lions, they only gave up one catch to a TE in the two previous contests. On top of that, until LaPorta went for 111 last week, the only TE to have more than 50 yards against the Bills was Jonnu Smith back in week two (he had 53 yards). They’ve also only allowed two teams to score with their TE against them.
Trey McBride has turned into the best tight end over the last month. In his last four games, he’s been targeted 51 times and caught 40 balls for 386 yards. The problem is he can’t score. He has none of the season. This week, that streak ends. The Panthers are awful against tight ends (31st in the league), allowing 10 touchdowns this year. If McBride can score and Jeff can dominate this position, it will make it hard for Colby to win.
TE POINTS
Colby – 88 points
Jeff – 226 points
PLACE KICKERS
Colby rolls out with Jason Sanders, who has made 28 of 32 field goals, including 10 from 50 yards out, plus 20 extra points. He’s attempted at least two field goals per game in every game but one since week five, including four just two weeks ago (scoring 200 points). The 49ers are good at keeping teams out of the end zone and forced the Rams to kick four field goals last week. The weather will be better in Miami, so Sanders could end up seeing three field goal attempts.
Jeff’s got the best kicker in the league with Chris Boswell, who will miss from time-to-time, but he’s gotten three attempts in five of his last nine games and has twice kicked four field goals in a game and twice gone 6-for-6. The Ravens give up 2.21 field goal attempts per game, so three attempts seems likely for Boswell.
PK POINTS
Colby – 150 points
Jeff – 140 points
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Both teams have solid matchups this week. The Lions head outside to face a Bears offense that has struggled this year. In fact, the Bears are 6th best offense for any DST to face. The Lions D got wrecked last week (scoring -104 points), but that was the Josh Allen. The Bears don’t have Josh Allen. The Lions have topped 100 seven times and 200 twice this year. They got 125 against the Bears three weeks ago. They failed to produce a turnover, but got five sacks and only gave up 301 total yards.
Jeff has the Packers, who are facing a struggling Saints offense at home in the cold of Green Bay on Monday night. The Saints tend to turn it over and have allowed four defensive scores. The Packers are coming off their second best game and have hit at least 100 in every home game since facing Minnesota back in week four. I expect them to dominate a Saints offense without Derek Carr and Chris Olave.
DST POINTS –
Colby – 134
Jeff – 198
FOOTBALL? OVER MAGIC NUMBERS, 1,666 – 1,476
Colby is going to need another magic number from Josh Allen, as QB is the one spot I believe his team can dominate. I don’t trust the Lions outdoors, so Colby could dominate in points there. The problem is, I see the Bills taking their foot off the gas this week as they dominate the Patriots. Jeff has the advantage at both RB and WR and McBride should dominate the TE spot. Colby’s two-week run has been magical, but the chase for a third-straight title ends by the hands of the league’s favorite Jew.
#6 The Genius (Matt) vs #7 Dudelove (Michael)
RECORD
Matt: 8-7
Michael: 8-7
POINTS
Matt: 1,399
Michael: 1,392
BREAKDOWN
Matt: 90-75
Michael: 94-71 (9-6 vs Matt)
HISTORY
These two are facing off the postseason for the first time, but Michael couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to face. These two have matched up eight times and Evangelist has dominated, taking seven of eight games. He won the first three, lost to Matt in 2021, then won the next four. He has never scored a weekly high or low against him, while Neatock has two weekly low scores facing Matt. In fact, he has topped 1,300 against him just twice.
THIS SEASON
These two faced off twice this year and both ended with Michael victories. Back in week three, Michael got 416 from Purdy, 284 from Nabers and 266 from Gibbs. They were able to overcome zero points from Kittle (Mike didn’t take the injured TE out of his lineup) in route to a 1,462-1,261 win. Matt got 468 points from Henry, but no other player hit 200, while Hurts was held to 156 and Stevenson managed only 16 points.
In the season’s final week, the pair met again and Michael walked away with a dominating 1,703-1,068 victory. In that contest, Purdy again delivered, scoring 348 points, but it was Nacua and Kittle who dominated. They scored 476 points (Nacua) and 302 points (Kittle), while Gibbs chipped in 206 points. Matt barely hit a grand, as Hurts was the only one to show up, scoring 330 points. Jeudy was second in points with 188, as Chubb and Irving (Henry was on a bye) combined for just 132 points.
In two games, out of 16 players, Matt only had two total players top 200 fantasy points against Michael, who’s is looking to become the 10th person to sweep another team three times in one season.
THE BATTLES WITHIN
QUARTERBACKS
Michael has a decision to make at QB and he’s made it, going with Jordan Love, despite the fact Purdy has dominated both times he started against Neatock. It makes sense, simply because Love has the better match up at home, on Monday night, against the Saints, although they are 10th against QBs in fantasy. It’s been a month since they have allowed a 300-yard passer and nine weeks since they have allowed three more TD passes. They have given up 125 rushing yards in the last two games to QB, but Love is not much of a runner. The only concern is the weather. Purdy gets to toss it around near South Beach, sunny and warm, while Green Bay might see snow.
Matt has no decision at QB, as it’s been Hurts or bust all season. He faces the Commanders, who did a good job containing him in week 11, holding Hurts to 221 yards, no passing touchdowns, but one rushing TD and 39 yards rushing. This time he’ll be on the road, but he’s coming off a 402-point game against the Steelers. I expect a nice QB battle in D.C. with Jayden Daniels and look for a couple of tush push touchdowns.
QB POINTS
Michael – 280
Matt – 386
RUNNING BACKS/FLEX
Matt entered the playoffs with the league’s best remaining back, but it’s actually Michael who has the best back in fantasy now. With David Montgomery done, the Lions backfield belongs to Gibbs. He’s been elite in a timeshare. It scares me to see what he does as a solo act. The Lions are outdoors against the Bears, a team that does well against the pass, but is awful against the run. In fact, the last time the Lions faced the Bears, both Gibbs and Montgomery topped 100 total yards each. Something tells me that Gibbs is about to hit 400. Because Michael rolls with only one back, I’m including Nabers as his flex. He’s one of two rookies receivers starting for Michael, which certainly wasn’t a problem last week. Nabers doesn’t have a good QB, so things could go south quickly, but he’s facing the Falcons who are the fourth worst defense defending receivers. They’ve twice allowed receivers to gain over 260 yards (all within the last month) and they’ve allowed 20 wideout TDs, including five to the Vikings two weeks ago. I don’t think Nabers is going to hit 100 yards, but 80 and a score for a second straight week is doable.
Matt is going again with Derrick Henry and Rhamondre Stevenson, over Bucky Irving. Henry has had a fantastic year, but like in the past, he has slowed down towards the end. He has received 20 carries in a game just once since week ten and he’s hasn’t sniffed 300 since week nine. He’s still running good, but he’s non-existent in the passing game and isn’t getting elite amount of carries. Against the Steelers, I expect their D to focus on Henry, stack the line and dare Lamar to throw to his receivers in single coverage. Henry will still produce, but he won’t hit 300 yet again. Stevenson has a great matchup, as the Bills are bad at stopping the run and the weather will dictate a lot of running. However, can Stevenson take advantage of this? Not sure. He hasn’t sniffed 200 since week nine and has rushed for less than four yards per carry nine times this year, including twice in the last month he has rushed for just 1.6 yards per carry in a game.
RB POINTS
Michael – 614
Matt – 430
WIDE RECEIVERS
Michael is back with Puka Nacua and Brian Thomas. Nacua is a rising star and has easily become Stafford’s best target. The issue this week is the fact the Rams are facing the Jets in Jersey and the weather isn’t going to be nice. Nacua also puts up better numbers at home, than on the road. He scored just 84 at Detroit, 22 at Seattle and 186 at New Orleans. However, he did score 306 at New England. As for Thomas, the rookie had his best game as a pro, scoring 330 last week. He seems to benefit from the change at QB. In his last three games, he has been targeted 36 times, catching 22 balls for 267 yards and three scores. He’s facing the Raiders, who are decent against the pass, having given up just one 100-yard game to a wideout. Thomas won’t repeat what he did last week, but Michael doesn’t need him to.
As for Matt, he’s going with two guys I’m sure he never thought when the season began that he would be starting in a semifinals game; Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. Best yet, both have favorable matchups. Since week 11, Jeudy has two 100-yard games and a 235-yard game (he scored 550 points in week 13). With Winston at QB, there has been an effort to get him the ball. The only problem is, Winston has been benched. He’s facing a bad Bengals D, but he’s going to need to produce with a third-string QB. Sutton has no such issue at the QB spot, as he has been targeted at least eight times in every game since week eight. The Charges defense hasn’t been tragic against receivers this season, but in their last five games, they have allowed 200+ yards to teams’ wideouts three times. Look for Nix to have a good game and target Sutton a lot.
WR POINTS
Michael – 320 points
Matt – 358 points
TIGHT ENDS
George Kittle has a habit of following up bad games with good games. When he scored 80 in week one, he scored 212 in week two. He followed up 188 in week five with 236 in week six. In week seven he scored 184, but the next week he scored 316. After scoring just 14 in week 13, he scored 302 in week 14. Last week, Kittle finished with 122. I think he’s going to go off on Miami.
Matt finally got a good game from LaPorta, who finished with 111 yards and 222 fantasy points. It was his first game over 200. This week, he faces the Bears, who have been vulnerable to TEs this year, but when LaPorta faced them in week 13, he only caught three balls for six yards, but he had two scores, finishing with 132 points. With the Lions outside, I think he’ll catch more than two balls, but I don’t expect a monster day.
TE POINTS
Michael – 242 points
Matt – 158 points
PLACE KICKERS
Tyler Bass has not had a great year. He’s only attempted 26 field goal attempts and missed five of those. He hasn’t missed from 50+, but he’s only attempted three. The problem is, the Bills score too much. He has 54 point after attempts and he missed four of those. Against the Patriots, I expect the same; a lot of touchdowns and not enough field goals.
Matt doesn’t have a kicker in right now. He still has Koo in his starting lineup and he’s on IR. I’ll assuming he pick up someone.
PK POINTS
Michael – 80 points
Matt – 100 points
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Vikings DST has been a big plus for Michael, at least early in the season. They are on the road this week, at Seattle, who can score, but at the same time, they’ve been known to struggle. Just last week, the Packers DST scored over 200 against them. The Vikings had been struggling, failing to top 80 against the Bears, Cardinals and Falcons. Not quite juggernauts, right? But last week they scored 148 in their second game against the Bears. The problem is, they aren’t forcing a lot of turnovers, so it’s good they are facing a Seattle team that has turned it over 21 times and allowed three DSTs to score this year.
For Matt, the Chiefs are coming off their best game, scoring 312 fantasy points against the Browns. Now the Texans are better, but Stroud has not been great this year. Just last week the Texans were held to just 181 yards. Look for the Texans to return to the running game with Nixon, as the Chiefs have been vulnerable to the rush. The Browns last week rushed for 139 yards and three teams have topped 100 yards rushing since week 11.
DST POINTS –
Michael – 144 points
Matt – 122 points
FOOTBALL? OVER MAGIC NUMBERS, 1,680 – 1,554
Neatock has a solid advantage at QB and a slight advantage at wide receiver, but Michael will produce massive points at RB/Flex with Gibbs and Nabors and look for Kittle to have a great game. If things go wrong for Michael, it will be due to his QB not being able to keep up with Hurts or if Thomas suddenly disappears after his best performance.