#4 FOOTBALL (Jeff) vs #7 Dudelove (Michael) 

RECORD
Jeff: 10-6
Michael: 9-7

POINTS
Jeff: 1,469
Michael: 1,410

BREAKDOWN
Jeff: 106-70 (11-5 vs Michael)
Michael: 104-72

GAME SPREAD
Michael is favorite by 163

HISTORY
Jeff leads the all-time series, 5-3. He won their first meeting back in 2019, 1,268-1,078. The following season, Michael took their only meeting, scoring a weekly high score with a 1,553-1,253 victory. In 2021, they faced off twice and Jeff swept it, beating Michael 1,493-1,360 and then 1,259-1,050. That second defeat was the infamous game where Michael failed to set his lineup, lost, missed the playoffs and allowed Eric to go on his championship run as an 8-seed (where he defeated Jeff). In 2002, Michael scored a victory without doing much scoring, taking down Jeff, 797-752. The 1,549 combined points remains the 16th lowest scoring game in league history and Mike’s 797 points in a win are the 7th least by a winning team. In 2023, Jeff beat Michael in the regular season, 1,617-1,393. It was the only time he scored over 1,500 in a game against Evangelist. However, Michael got his revenge. The two met in the semifinals (their only playoff face off) and Michael took down Jeff, 1,592-1,412.

THIS SEASON
This season, Jeff pulled out a slim 76-point victory, 1,390-1,314, back in week eight. No one player dominated for Jeff, as no player topped 300, but all but one scored at least 140, led by Williams (292), McBride (248) and Goff (198). Michael got 326 from Gibbs and 216 from Kittle, but no other player scored over 180. Jordan Mason only managed 36 points and Jordan Love only produced 100 points.

THE MATCH UPS

QUARTERBACKS

Jared Goff (Jeff)
Over the last three weeks, the Lions QB has become one of the best. In the last six weeks, he has both a 500-point game and a 600-point game and in his last three, he has 1,360 points, never dipping below 340, passing for 283, 494 and 336 yards, with 11 touchdowns to only one interception. He stays outside facing the 49ers in San Francisco. While the Niners D has not dominated the last month or so, they’re still top-five against quarterbacks in fantasy. Only one QB has managed to pass for 300 yards against them and no QB has thrown three touchdowns this season. I’d like Goff to continue with his strong performances, but a 270 yards and two TD performance seems likely.
POINTS: 280 

Brock Purdy (Michael)
With Jordan Love facing the Vikings, Michael has no choice but to roll with Purdy once again. While he did score a solid 320 last week, he’s been inconsistent since week 13. In fact, his last four have looked liked this: 20, 348, 40 and 320. This week he is facing the Lions who are chasing that top seed, with comes with a bye-week and home field, so they are highly motivated. The Lions D was pretty good against quarterbacks in fantasy up until two weeks ago. They have given up back-to-back 330-yard games and haven’t had an interception since week 11, after having 14 in their first 11 weeks. The opportunity to do well is here for Purdy. The Lions offense should be able to put up points, so the 49ers will probably be in comeback mode early. Comeback mode is what you want from a QB in the championship game.
POINTS: 311 

RUNNING BACKS/FLEX

Karen Williams & Chuba Hubbard (Jeff)
Here is where Jeff needs to dominate. Last week, his backs did just that. Williams and Hubbard combined for 768 points. Can they do it again? Williams has the better matchup, facing a Cardinals team that is 21st against backs in fantasy. They’ve allowed 440 yards rushing in their last three games, including 166 yards last week to the Panthers. Seven times in total a team has rushed for over 100 yards. Now, the Rams faced the Cardinals this season and Williams was held to just 25 yards rushing on 12 carries (52 total yards), but that’s when the Rams had lost both their starting receivers. Williams has been on a tear lately, averaging 286 fantasy points the last four weeks, rushing for over 100 yards in three of his last four. His only downside is that he’s not involved in the passing game. Williams has caught just six balls since week 11. Still, look for 100+ yards and a score this week.

As for Hubbard, it’s hard to followup a 450-point effort and let’s be honest, he’s been inconsistent at times. In fact his last four games look like this: 56, 274, 98 and 450 points. If he showed up and scored under 100 against the Buccaneers, who are 11th against backs in fantasy, it shouldn’t surprise anyone. The Bucs have only allowed two players to rush for 100 yards and the last was Kareem Hunt back in week nine. In their last two against the Chargers and Cowboys, those teams have rushed the ball 25 times for 56 yards. Since facing the Chiefs in week nine, they have only allowed 47 yards rushing per game. One of those games was against the Panthers and they held Chuba to 43 yards on 12 carries. Look for Hubbard to get more, but he won’t score against a D that has only given up seven rushing TDs all season.
POINTS: 264 for Williams, 132 for Hubbard 

Jahmyr Gibbs & Malik Nabers (Michael)
I said last week that Gibbs was the best player remaining in the postseason and I’m standing by that this week as well. As a solo artist last week in the Lions’ backfield, he delivered 154 total yards, one score and 368 points. I see no reason why he can’t do that again. He’s facing the 49ers who are one of the worst at stopping the run. Officially, they are 23rd against backs in fantasy. However, they have gotten worse. Since week seven, six teams out of nine opponents have rushed for over 100 yards, including four of the last six teams…and I’m not talking about a tad over 100. In week 12, the Packers rushed for 158 yards. The next week, the Bills rushed for 198 yards. Just last week, the Dolphins rushed for 167 yards. I see no reason why Gibbs can’t put up another 150 total yards and two scores.

Nabers is back in the flex spot. The rookie is not in a good spot, playing on an awful Giants offense, but at least the QBs know to target him. In fact, he’s been targeted 51 times in his last four games. He’s managed to catch 30 of those targets for 298 yards. The problem is, the team doesn’t spend enough time near the end zone, so there are not a lot of opportunities to score. Nabers has just one touchdown since week four and has topped 200 fantasy points in that same time. The Giants are facing the Colts, who are 8th against receivers in fantasy. They’ve allowed five receivers to top 100 yards, but none since week nine. Look for Nabers to again be targeted a lot, catch some for a handful of yards, but he’s not going to hit a homerun against this team. How about 79 total yards and no score.
POINTS: 422 for Gibbs, 158 for Nabers 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Tyreek Hill & Drake London (Jeff)
Hill has been one of the bigger disappointments, mostly because he’s been so good over the last few years. He has just three games where he has topped 200 and only one of those was a 300-point effort and that was in week 14, when he scored 302 points. In his last two, he has just five total catches for 65 yards. This week, he couldn’t ask for a better matchup, as the Browns are 29th against receivers in fantasy. The list of receivers who have 100 yards receiving against them is a who’s who of not-elite players like Sutton, Mims and Quentin Johnston. If Hill can’t produce against this team, then Jeff won’t win. I think he misses 100 yards, but gets close and scores a TD.

London has been a good receiver, but has never approached great. He’s scored over 300 once and over 200 just once, but not since week six. The biggest problem is the lack of a great QB. Last week, Cousins was benched and the rookie got the start, but he managed only five catches for 49 yards. He faces the Commanders, who gave up three 100-yard games in the season’s first six weeks, but none since. Hard to see London being the guy who breaks through, especially with the Falcons focusing on the run game. If London delivers more than 80 yards and a score, I’d be shocked.
POINTS: 232 for Hill, 144 for London 

Puka Nacua & Brian Thomas Jr. (Michael)
With the way Hill has been playing and the way his hands have been playing, Michael should have a sizable advantage at receiver. Nacua is one of the best wideouts in football and while the Cardinals are solid at stopping wide receivers in fantasy (they have not given up 200 yards receiving by any teams’ wide receiver group), Nacua is simply targeted too much. Since week 10, he has received at least eight targets in each game, for a total of 75 targets in his last 7 games, catching 57 balls for 709 yards and three scores. I see no reason why he won’t continue those kind of digits this final week.

Brian Thomas Jr. loses this starting QB and then becomes the best receiver in football. In his last two contests, he has 27 targets, 19 catches for 237 yards and three scores. This week he faces the Titans who are officially the worst defense to face if you are a receiver, but if you look in the details, much of their damage was done early in the year. Of the Titans first eight games, only three teams got 100 yards from their receivers, including the Lions only getting 27 yards in week eight. However, receivers have allowed 100 yards by wideouts in seven straight games. Thomas’s stats will drop from his previous two weeks, but he’s still going to produce.
POINTS: 258 for Nacua, 222 for Thomas 

TIGHT END

Trey McBride (Jeff)
It’s a battle between two of the best tight ends in football, although McBride is definitely a step below Kittle. He still hasn’t scored a TD this year and last week against one of the worst defenses against TEs, he managed only three catches for 20 yards. He faces the Rams who will give up yards to tight ends. In fact, they have allowed tight ends to catch 130 yards worth of balls the last two weeks and in week two, McBride delivered six catches for 67 yards. Expect similar digits this week.
POINTS: 144 

George Kittle (Michael)
Kittle has been the most productive tight end when playing and he’s coming off an eight catch for 106 yards game against the Dolphins last week. He has six 200-point fantasy games, with two of those topping 300. Yet, this week he faces the Lions. They are the best at stopping the tight end from scoring fantasy points this year. In fact, the best game against them this year was Dalton Schultz (Texans), who finished with 66 yards on three catches. They’ve also only given up three touchdowns, but two came in the last three weeks. Look for Kittle to deliver the best performance against the Lions this year. He’s just one of those guys where the opponent doesn’t really matter.
POINTS: 204 

PLACE KICKERS

Chris Boswell (Jeff)
Boswell has attempted 42 field goals this year, made 39 and also added 32 for 32 extra points. 12 of his field goals have been from 50+ yards. The only small concern is that the Steelers have struggled to score lately, so he’s not getting a ton of attempts lately. He’s attempted five field goals in his last three games. His kicking against the Chiefs, who are tied for third when it comes to preventing fantasy points from kickers. In fact, only two kickers in the Chiefs’ last eight games have attempted two field goals or more. Don’t expect Boswell to have one of his classic 6-for-6 days.
POINTS: 110

Tyler Bass (Michael)
Bass isn’t the greatest kicker in the league. He’s only attempted 27 field goals and made just 22. However, he has made 52 extra points. However, the Bills are facing the Jets, who are 29th in kicker fantasy points allowed. They allow 2.60 attempts per games, plus nearly two extra points a game. The Bills shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the ball, so Bass could get three field goal attempts and two extra points, but I think he misses one.
POINTS: 90 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Dolphins (Jeff)
Greenblatt decides to play the matchup and rolls with the Dolphins against the Browns. Seeing how bad Cleveland was the last couple of weeks, this makes sense. The Browns offense is the second best offense to face if you are a DST (Giants are first). They have no produced 300 total yards in their last three weeks and they’ve scored just 13 points the last two games. The Fins have no 200-point fantasy games and have forced just two turnovers the last four weeks, so not sure how dominant they can be, thus don’t expect a 200-point effort.
POINTS: 168

Vikings (Michael)
The Vikings DST has been one of the best over the entire season, but they haven’t been great lately. They have averaged only 85 points per game in their last five. The Packers aren’t a dominant offense, but they’re good enough to give Minnesota some issues.
POINTS: 84

FINAL OUTCOME

My money is on Dudelove pulling out a 1,749-1.474 victory. He’s got the league’s best player (Gibbs), a capable QB, much better receivers and better match ups. The game won’t be a blowout, but look for Evangelist to earn that first title in Robioland.