When the Kansas City Chiefs wrapped up their 25-17 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last night, the official end of a quarter century of Robioland Fantasy Football was upon us. When all was said and all was done, Colby Hall sat alone atop a mountain of success…again. Thanks to a 1,508-1,408 victory over Micheal Evangelist, Mr. Hall became just the fourth person to earn back-to-back titles joining myself (1999-2000), Bob (2010-2011) and Matt (2017-18).
It was just two years ago Colby was losing any claim for “best team to never win a title.” Heading into the 2022 season, while mug-less Rob Masterson was making it to the postseason for the 10th time in 11 seasons, Colby was missing the party more than he was invite. Between 2015-2021, he missed the playoffs four times and made it in just twice, never escaping the quarterfinals in those two postseason trips. He produced a single winning season in that span, although that one season (2018) he broke a 17-year single season scoring record that no one thought would be broken (it’s now second most).
Then in 2022, everything changed. He took a good nine-win, 4-seed into the postseason. Once there he never had to face either of the top-two seeds, including Eric who had averaged over 1,600 for the season. He ended up crushing the competition in the playoffs. He became just the sixth person to score over 5,300 in the postseason and earned that first title.
No longer allowed in the “best team not to win a title” conversation, the question was, what would the talk be about now? Well, in two short years he went from no titles to being tied for fourth most (with Calderon), so it might be time to talk about the greatest run in league history if he can continue the success into next season. For now though, how did we get here in 2023?
Colby’s season can be broken into three unequal parts. The first part…
BEATABLE
After six weeks of football, Colby was, dare I say, beatable. After defeating undermanned Robio in week one, Colby would fall in his next two games and actually sat under .500. Through six weeks, he could only muster a .500 record. Of course, in fantasy football, your record does not say who you really are. In that span of time, Colby was the league’s top scorer, having topped 1,500 four times, losing one of those games to Calderon, who scored over 2,000. His lowest output was the 1,262 he had in a 79-point defeat to Griff in week six.
UNBEATABLE
After the sluggish start, at least according to the standings, over the next three weeks, Colby’s squad looked like the best ever. After scoring 1,697 in a win over Burrier and then he would score over 2,000 in back-to-back games (2,061 against Eric, 2,057 against Don). He had won three in a row and was on pace to challenge the all-time scoring record set in 2019.
BEATABLE-UNBEATEN
Beginning with the Kirk Cousins season-ending injury in week nine, Colby would, for the most part, be a beatable team. The problem was, no one was good enough to beat him.
In weeks 10 and 11, he scored only 1,236 and 1,239 against Matt and Masterson, but still won. He scored a decent but not great 1,324 and 1,343 in weeks 13-14, facing two playoff teams, Michael and Calderon, but still didn’t lose. The door was open, but no one was willing to walk in.
The reality was, averaging 1,366 points per game during those final five games was enough. If he averaged that much the entire season, he would have still been the second highest scoring team (only behind Michael, who averaged 1,387).
The rest of the league was simply too average to compete with a squad that never truly put up a bad game. If you were to beat Colby, you would need to produce winnable points. He wasn’t going to lose. And that’s something no one could do after week six. How much better was Colby over the rest of the competition? The 2,324 points separating his regular season points to the second most scored, was the largest margin among current teams and second only to former league member Jason’s 2001 effort.
In the postseason, nothing really changed. In the quarterfinals, when threatened by a high-scoring, low seed, his boys rose to the occasion, scored over 1,900 and easily dispatched 8-seed Eric. In the semis, Colby failed to top 1,500 against 7-seed Neatock, known for his semifinal upsets (including knocking off 1-seed Eric the year before). Against Colby though, only Neatock got Neatock’d, as his boys failed to show in a 1,487-843 Colby win.
Two games in and it seemed like beating Colby was just as likely as Taylor Swift dating a black guy. Yet, Michael Evangelist waited in the wings. He owned the league’s best start (5-0), he was second in scoring and he was heating up, scoring over 1,500 in two straight games. In fact, in their previous seven weeks, Michael was 5-2 against Colby in the breakdown. Worse yet, Colby would need to enter the finals down two very important starters in Cooper and Hockenson.
Was Lady Luck about to kick Bukaya Saka to the curb? It sure seemed like she tried.
Down two starters, Colby watched as his league MVP, Christian McCaffrey failed to escape the third quarter and finished with only 182 points; his first sub-200 game since week six. In that same game, his elite, All-Robio receiver, A.J. Brown only caught four balls for 53 yards against a pitiful Cardinals D (scoring 106). It didn’t help that his kicker, Lucas Havrisik attempted no field goals and missed two of his four extra point attempts (scoring zero points).
At one point, early in the 1pm games, Michael was actually a 60% favorite to win. He got 238 from David Njoku Thursday night and Kyren Williams ran over the Giants, scoring three times and delivering 382 points.
Yet, heading into the later afternoon games, with Colby done and Michael still having Mahomes and Butker, the game felt over. Even with Butker scoring what is probably a record for a kicker 290 fantasy points, all it did was make Michael’s defeat less feel closer than it was. How did this all happen? How did Colby “escape” with a 100-point win, the 5th tightest championship game in league history?
It begins with the 2021 draft. A draft where we had learned Travis Etienne was injured and out for the year. Colby, always thinking beyond that season, took the Jaguars rookie in the 13th round, slapped a redshirt sticker on him and let him sit. That decision has paid off two years in a row and cashed in big time in the finals.
Etienne finished as the 15th best back last year and the third best RB this season. While he did struggle some down the stretch, for the second straight year, he dominated week 17. A year after scoring 340 in the title game, he delivered 118 yards and two scores against the Panthers this week. His 356 proved to be the most by a player on Colby’s team. That’s 696 points in back-to-back championship games by a 13th round pick.
Yet, keepers alone don’t win titles. Fact is, Michael actually had the week’s best back in Williams and his 382. A complete draft that gives you star players and quality debt goes a long way.
In round two, Colby wanted Josh Allen, but he was snagged by Burrier in round one. Colby then had to “settle” for A.J. Brown, who was one of the best receivers in football. He eventually waited on a QB and that moved paid off (with Cousins until he got hurt). Colby also skipped on the elite tight ends, but landed an All-Robio caliber TE in Hockenson in round four. In round five, Jordan Addison seemed like a reach, but once Jefferson was out, the rookie wideout was a stud and contributed for Colby for a solid month in the middle of the season. Even the Cowboys DST, picked in round nine, landed him an All-Robio award. Yet, none of these guys did anything for Colby in the title game due to injuries or matchups.
One that did was Taysom Hill. The Saints QB, er, I mean TE was a periodic starter who had struggled lately. Yet, Colby never let him slide and with Hockenson out, Hill put up a good enough 128 (thanks to a TD) that minimized the damage that Njoku did. It may not seem like much, Hill’s performance was better than all but one free agent TE that Colby would have had to pick up if he didn’t keep Hill on his pine.
Still, the biggest factors in Colby’s 100-point victory this week had little to do with keepers or the draft, but it was the wire work.
Free agent grabs like C.J. Stroud ($5 in week 8) and Zack Moss ($38 in week six) contributed to Colby’s success this season. He played them only when they were hot and by the time they cooled off or got hurt, they were back on his pine or gone for good.
Yet, a key free agent was Brock Purdy, ended up being the second best free agent pick up this season behind Kyren Williams. The 49ers QB was Colby’s in week two for only $3 (dropping Bryce Young). He did this, not even needing a QB, because he was always thinking ahead. While Purdy took a back seat at first to Stroud and the 49ers arm was being offered in trade talks, Colby ended up keeping him and he has led the way in the postseason.
After struggling last week (four interceptions and only 34 points), Colby stuck with Purdy and he delivered a solid 280 fantasy points in the title game, which was 104 more points than Patrick Mahomes gave Mike, who was a first-round pick.
Yet, the big difference in this game were two other wire grabs. I didn’t even realize Colby grabbed and started Demarcus Robinson of the Rams this week until after the game started. Sure, he was coming off a good game last week, but this was a team that featured Kupp, Nacua and Atwell. Was Robinson any good?
Well, Robinson had a good performance. He caught six balls for 92 yards (he fumbled once) and scored 154. The guy Colby didn’t start in his place, Jordan Addison, scored only 56 points. This decision landed Colby an extra 98 points. Again, he won by 100, so this decision didn’t decide it for him, but one decision in week 11 did.
Knowing the Cowboys DST would be facing much stiffer competition down the stretch, Colby went hunting for Ds at the end of the regular season. In week 11 he picked up the Texans D and sat them. He did finally play them in week 14, but they failed to impress. Thus, the roto-defense strategy began.
In the quarterfinals, Colby picked up the Raiders D, started them and they dominated, giving him 256 points. In the semifinals, Colby again ignored the Texans, went with the Packers, who struggled, only scoring 23 against a bad Panthers offense. So, in the title game, Colby went back to the Texans, facing a Titans team they already dominated once. Well, they did it again.
For the price of $2 of auction money in week 11, Colby watched the Texans hold Tennessee to 3 points and 187 total yards. Forcing one turnover, sacking the QB six times and scoring once. The DST finished with 302 points (the only two times they topped 200 was when facing the Titans). The 302 was 242 more than what Mike got from the Colts DST.
That is how you win a 100-point title game and why the Texans D is the championship game MVP.
For Mike, the chance to win that first ever football title was there. That’s sorta amazing considering he basically wasted his first two pick by drafting Mahomes and keeping Herbert. Both quarterbacks were decent early in the season, but both were trash down the stretch. Yet, Michael still came up just 100 points short of a title.
Mahomes played his part, scoring a pathetic 176, as the Chiefs settled for six field goals (he threw one TD pass). Meanwhile, Swift only got 13 carries in a game the Eagles led most of the way. He also only caught one ball all game. He finished with just 132. At receiver, both Olave and Ridley had high ceilings, but low floors. Unfortunately, for Evangelist, they both decided to go low. They combined for only 7 catches for 65 yards in two games where both their teams were dominating.
Still, a title game defeat does not erase a good season. Michael had a lot to prove, still trying to make up for that awful decision to not take out an injured Dalvin Cook in week 14 the 2021 season. Since then, Michael has won 19 of 32 games. In total, he’s won 41 games in five seasons, producing four winning seasons, four trips to the playoffs and this title game appearance. Dudelove is clearly here to play.
For Colby, the only real question is, compared to others, where does this season rank? Well, based on the number I use, Colby’s 2023 is the second best season in league history.
His 11 wins is tied for second most. His 1,553 points per game is the fourth most. He averaged 1,563 PPG for a full season (regular season and post), which is also fourth most in league history. To add to his numbers, he had three weekly high scores, never had a low score and never dipped below a grand. He had 10 total games over 1,500 (two in the postseason), which is tied for second most. On top of all that, based on standings, Colby played one of the toughest schedules in league history, as all three of his repeat foes were teams that finished among the top six (Robio, Calderon and Mike). He went 9-3 in those games. The nine wins over top-six teams is the most by any team in league history.
Based on all these factors, Colby’s 2023 season sits behind Robio’s 2019 run, but ahead of Bob’s 2014 season and Matt’s 2009 season.
Anyhow, make room on the shelf and enjoy the moment. Heading into the 2024 season, with both McCaffrey and Etienne returning for one more ride, Colby most likely be the pre-draft favorite and will be trying to become the first ever three-peat in league history.
The three previous attempted all ended in the semifinals…
Robio (2001) – Won 9 games, 2nd in scoring, earned 2-seed, was upset in the semifinals.
Bob (2012) – Finished 6-7, 4th in scoring, earned the 7-seed, fell in the semifinals.
Matt (2019) – Finished 7-6, 4th in scoring, earned the 6-seed, fell in the semifinals.
Anyhow, congratulations to Colby. Enjoy.