The league motto has always been, “get to the playoffs and win three games.” It’s simple; it’s true. For just the second time in league history, the top three seeds all fell in the quarterfinals. On top of that, six teams scored over 1,500 and no team scored less than 1,395 points. That’s the first time either of those things have happened in the quarterfinals.
Despite the fact I went chalk in my postseason predictions, don’t be shocked by these results. This season has been particularly balanced. To prove this point, I was the scoring champ. I scored 21,390 of the league’s 230,429 points. That’s 9.28% of all points, which is the second lowest percentage by a scoring champ in league history. Nine teams averaged over 1,300 points, which is pretty damn good.
Anyhow, as always, I’ll have something for everyone. For those of you who missed the playoffs, we’ll discuss 2025 keeper options.
MOVING ON TO THE SEMIFINALS
#4 FOOTBALL (JEFF)
The highest seed remaining is Mr. Greenblatt, who technically pulled off an upset in the quarterfinals as he was the underdog heading into the game and was dead in the water until Jared Goff became the first quarterback in history to throw for five touchdowns and lose a game. That Bills-Lions game saved a lot of seasons and ended many others.
Goff finished with 624 points, which I believe is the second most points scored by a QB in a playoff game. I know Marc Bulger scored 652 points in the 2006 title game for Don. Goff didn’t pull out the final victory for Jeff until the final drive of that game when he led the Lions down on a meaningless TD drive with seconds to go, handing Greenblatt a 55-point victory over Bob.
Jeff needed every digit he could get from Goff, as Hubbard and both of Jeff’s receivers failed to score 100 fantasy points. In fact, only Goff, Williams (224) and the Packers DST (256) topped 200.
Greenblatt has reached the semifinals for the 6th time in nine seasons, having won six straight quarterfinals games.
#6 THE GENIUS (MATT)
Like Jeff, Matt just has a knack for leaving the quarterfinals with a win, but with the added flare of texting the league commissioner to complain about his team or management decisions while he’s winning that game.
While Jalen Hurts led the way with 402 points (290 passing yards, 45 rushing and three scores), this was an important reminder of the impact a DST can have in our league. This week, while his opponent secured only 99 points from their DST, Matt got 312 points from the Chiefs, who only allowed seven points and 266 yards, sacking the QB five times and forcing six turnovers. That’s +213 at the DST for Matt in a game he won by just 83 points.
Best yet for Matt is he won despite his best effort to bench his victory. He sat Irving for Stevenson and that decision cost him 56 points. He benched Smith for Jeudy and that cost him another 64 points. He even cut Chase McLaughlin and added back Yoo. That decision cost him 140 points.
Despite this trio of bad decisions, Neatock is advancing to the semifinals for the 10th time in his career.
#7 DUDELOVE (MICHAEL)
I’m starting to regret inviting this dude into the league. He’s knocked me out of the postseason two straight seasons. So how the fuck did Michael overcome a 40-point effort from Purdy? Well, he relied on his youth movement.
Michael got 348 from Gibbs, 330 from Thomas, 224 from Nabers and 216 from Nacua. The oldest player in that bunch is Nacua who is 23 years old and none have yet to play their third season in the league. Amazing to think that Michael is a win away from the title game starting just one back and two rookie wide receivers. That’s never happened before.
Yet, the possibility of that happening has gone up a ton when we learned that David Montgomery is out for the year. This gives Gibbs, who already is an elite back, despite being in a timeshare, the keys to the Lions backfield and makes him arguably the best player not named Josh Allen, remaining in the playoffs.
#8 MAGIC NUMBERS (COLBY)
For whatever reasons, call it fate. Call it luck. Call it karma. Call it Josh Allen becoming the greatest QB in the history of existence. Colby is no one-trick pony, but Allen is making life a lot easier for him. A week after scoring 752 points just to get Colby into the postseason, he scored 616 points this week to help pull off a massive upset over Calderon.
If Allen scores just his average per game this season, which is 366 per game and pretty damn high, Colby loses. The man has 704 yards passing, 150 yards rushing, five passing TDs, five rushing TDs and no turnovers in his last two games (both on the road). This is the same QB who scored just 156 and 102 fantasy points in his first two road games of the season.
These numbers helped Colby overcome zero points from Cooper Kupp. In fact, from his two receivers and tight end, he got just 156 points. Instead, he rode Allen and a pair of Cowboys. Dowdle continues to be one of the stronger backs in the league down the stretch. He scored another 298 and has scored 886 points in his last three. On top of that, the Cowboys DST, which is finally healthy, delivered 273 points. Thanks to 12 sacks, they have topped 240 in two of their last three contests, although with games against the Buccaneers and Eagles the next two weeks, I’m not sure how much more Colby can rely on them.
Anyhow, Mr. Hall, the two-time defending champ is one win away from becoming the second team to reach the finals three straight seasons. Griff did it back in 2003-2005. However, he won just one of those title games. Colby is trying to become the first person to win three straight mugs. He’s now won seven straight playoff games, which is tied for longest streak. Beat Jeff this week and the record is his.
GONE, BUT NOT FORGOTTEN
Pick #8 – THE DICK-TATERS (RICH C)
He scored 1,458 points in his defeat, which isn’t bad, until you realize 36% of the points came via Adams, who scored 536 points. No other player managed to crack 200 fantasy points, as the Ravens DST was second in points (scoring 182). The league MVP? He finished with just 148 points, which was a season low. He also only got 150 from Guerendo, while Aaron Jones scored 272 on his pine. At least that decision didn’t cost him the win. All blame goes to Josh Allen playing in rookie mode in Madden.
Going 12-2 and averaging over 1,500, only to lose as a 1-seed in the quarterfinals is going to hurt for Calderon. I know his pain, but we need to look ahead. Rich has been arguably the most successful team over the last decade and good keepers always helps to keep the winning ways coming.
I have to believe he’s going to keep Barkley in round one for the final time in 2025. I hate first-round keepers, but the dude was the league MVP for a reason. However, Rich could flirt with keeping Aaron Jones in round five. Maybe if McCaffrey retires and the 49ers name Guerendo the starter, he could have nice value in round six, but I don’t see that happening.
In category two, not a ton of options with Walker going back to the draft pool, other than a pair of QBs in Sam Darnold in round eight or Tua in round nine. Tua could be a good option, but who knows who will be Miami’s coach next year and when you start Tua, you have to always have a strong backup QB.
Pick #7 – ATTACK OF THE CAT SNACK (ROBIO)
Gotta love when you score the most points all season, but then score the lowest point total of the quarterfinals. That’s fantasy football for you. No one sniffed 300 on my team and only two players topped 200, led by Robinson and his 270 points. Still, I’m blaming my receiving core. Nico and Hopkins finished with just nine catches for 53 yards. Sure Collins had two touchdowns, but this is a yards league. If both receivers produced 45 more yards on Sunday, I’m advancing.
Looking ahead, I don’t have a ton of good keeper options. I gave what I had to Don. In category one, I’m basically deciding between Bijan Robinson in round one, which I hate doing or Nico Collins in round two. For now, I’m leaning towards Robinson. In that scenario, I would probably just keep his handcuff, Allgeier, in round 11, as Joe Burrow goes back to the draft pool.
Pick #6 – THUNDERPANTS (RICH B)
If you told me that Rich would get 438 from Mike Evans and 296 from James Connor, I would have bet the farm he’d be advancing to the semifinals. Yet, I would be wrong, as too many players fell way short. Bowers, who has been absolutely elite lately, managed only 70 points (his second worst performance of the year). Najee Harris scored only 42 points. It was the only time all year he failed to top 100 fantasy points. Evan Ja’Marr Chase was average for him, scoring only 188 points. After scoring eight touchdowns in his last four games, he scored none this week, despite nine receptions.
Yet, I’m going to lay the blame for Burrier’s 83-point defeat on Mahomes. Yes, he scored 254 points, which isn’t terrible, but this a future Hall of Famer in the prime of his career, yet in 14 games starting for Rich this year, he topped 300 just once, averaging less than 250 points. Not good enough and the reality is, if Burrier had any moxie, he would have tried to fix that issue a long time ago. Sure, it’s not easy to give up on Mahomes, but someone like Bob or myself would have looked at Griff, who was not making the playoffs and would have thrown whatever keepers I had to land Lamar Jackson. Good drafts deliver playoff teams. Good team managers win championships!
Speaking of keepers, Burrier will have a decision to make in category one. He can keep the league’s top receiver (Chase) in the first round or he can go with James Connor in round four. In category two, Brock Bowers in round 11 the next two seasons is a no-brainer.
Pick #5 – AIYUK ACHANE ADONAI ELOHEINU MELEKH HA’OLAM (BOB)
I know Bob is going to be very unsatisfied with this defeat. He scored enough to win (1,555) most any playoff game, but not this year and not against this opponent. In fact, Bob would have lost to every team in the playoffs except me and Calderon. I believe his return to greatness will require multiple steps. This season, he stepped back into the playoffs. That’s a good first step.
This week, what we did see were elite backs not being elite. Calderon only got 148 from Barkley. Hubbard only scored 98 for Jeff and Henry produced just 134 for Matt. For Bob, Achane managed only 152 points. The reality is, the shine was starting to wear off lately. In his last four contests, his average per rush was 3.2, 2.0, 1.7 and 3.4. Yet, Bob saw the writing on the wall a month ago. Rumor has it he was offering up Achane in a trade to Don for Robinson. If he would have locked that down, he would be advancing to the semifinals.
Looking ahead, Bob has a few good options in category one, led by Achane in round two. However, he could also go with either Terry McLaurin in round six or Jayden Daniels in round seven. In category two, the pickings are slim with Pollard back to the draft pool. Right now, Jaxon Smith-Njigba in round ten looks like the only viable keeper.
PICK #4 – STROUD BOYS (ERIC)
Eric has so many good category one keeper options, it makes you wonder how he missed the playoffs. Having said that, I don’t think he’s keeping St. Brown in round one or Swift in round five or Stroud in round four. His decision comes down to CeeDee Lamb in round two or Joe Mixon in round four.
In category two, Jameson Williams has some appeal in round nine, but I don’t see Eric considering Justin Herbert in round 11. Instead, I think he keeps Jordan Addison, who seems to be on the verge of forming the next Harrison-Wayne wide receiver duo with Jefferson in Minnesota.
PICK #3 – TWO HEADED RUSHIN ATTACK (ROB M)
For Rob, the odds are he will be keeping his entire starting backfield next year. In category one, he has to decide, Breece Hall in round three for one more year or Chase Brown in round seven. I’m not convinced Brown will be the Bengals starting back next year or at least he won’t be by himself. Remove Brown’s best run in each of his games and his run average is pretty bad. If the Bengals agree and go out and bring in a new back, that decision on who to keep will be made for Rob. He could also keep Jefferson in round one, but that’s a waste when picking this high.
In category two, Wilson returns to the draft pool, which leaves Rob with either T.J. Hockenson in round 15 (with a red shirt) or J.K. Dobbins. The Chargers back was solid this year, but the fact he is back on the IR to finish the year reminds us of all of the flaws in relying on Dobbins. Still, he would only cost Rob a 12th round pick.
PICK #2 – REAL MEN PRODUCE PORN (GRIFF)
This season Griff kept Lamar Jackson in category one and the third-rounder earned a first-team All-Robio award. Does that mean he keeps him again? It’s not a terrible option, but the reality is, Griff should have traded Lamar weeks ago to secure a better category one keeper. Again, it’s decisions like these that separate the teams. The reality is, Griff can keep Baker Mayfield in round 15. As of this writing, Baker is the league’s fifth best quarterback behind Jackson, Allen, Burrow and Hurts. That’s pretty good company.
With White going back to the draft pool and Trey Benson never locking in any playing time in Arizona, Baker looks to be the best category two option. Thus, Griff can decide between Isiah Pacheco in round two or Brian Robinsin in round six.
PICK #1 – AI BUILD MY TEAM (DON)
Don has missed the postseason five straight seasons and 10 of the last 13 years in the league. He has just one playoff win since 2012. This needs to stop. One good way to do that is to get keepers when shit goes south. Don made that trade this year, but time will tell if it helps him in the future.
Right now he has Jonathon Brooks with a redshirt in round seven and Tyrone Tracy in round 13. Brooks entered the season recovering from an ACL injury and finished it on IR. That’s not good. Plus, Hubbard got a new contract, so at best Brooks is going to be splitting carries next year. Unfortunately, he’s still the best keeper Don has in category one. Perhaps Hubbard-Brooks will become the next Montgomery-Gibbs?
Tracy has been good since becoming a starter, topping 190 in six of his nine starts. Have his stats been good enough to guarantee the Giants won’t bring in another back? I’m not so sure, but if he is the day one starter in 2025, he’s a solid keeper for Don in round 13.